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  #351  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:28 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
Linky???
No linky, what they are saying on the call now...

Not one of the best calls they have had, POTUS and his CDC team are not sounding very cohesive. Most of the calls have been very good though. Fauci-F'd things up with his scare tactics this time around. They are not exhibiting confidence as a Team (including POTUS) (as they usually do).

And their actions are in-congruent with what they are saying....

On one hand we could be in a world of crap, on the other hand (putting aside the legal issues - I think we already covered that LOL) they are not willing to contain an area like NYC which is the CV crap-hole of the country. Big in-congruence btwn of the alarmist nature of what they are saying and their wimpy actions...We have a big country for it to spread to, if they aren't willing to contain the Big-Hot spot NYC, this isn't going to end anytime soon with this current process. May 30th (IF) we are lucky...Meh, it is probably too late already. Just issue everyone masks and gloves and get them back to work with with social distancing. If POTUS follows the medical establishment to its logical conlusion, the economy is going to take an extremely long time to come back.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-29-2020 at 05:48 PM.
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  #352  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:40 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
No linky, what they are saying on the call now...

Not one of the best calls they have had, POTUS and his CDC team are not sounding very cohesive. Most of the calls have been very good though. Fuci-F'd things up with his scare tactics this tome around.
I don't think its a scare tactic. And yes, this pathogen could, if nothing was done... if it went unmitigated... could cause millions of death because we are in a worse situation for a fast moving contagion with no immunity, in a worst predicament then we were during the 13th century.

Why? Because of our mobility as I said before. We have airplanes, cars, trains, mass transits. All of a sudden, a person with no symptoms that is infectious, can get on board a plane and deliver that infection, unknowingly, to a dense population 12,000 miles away in a matter of hours. Just look at the infection maps... every country in the world has an outbreak in just 3 months.

During the dark ages, travel was by foot, donkey and horse. Travel between population centers could take days and weeks and the infected person could die before reaching the next place. Same with ships, journeys could take weeks and months and sick people would die en-route. Hence, distances and oceans were a mitigating factor in the spread of highly contagious pathogen.

So if drastic measures are not taken, like preventing large group gatherings and travel, this thing could in theory spread like wildfire.


So everything I said earlier still stands correct. You just want to argue with me.
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  #353  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:40 PM
mdellis49 mdellis49 is offline
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If you are under the illusion that this virus only is critical to the elderly and weak, please take it seriously:https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...cid=spartandhp
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  #354  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:41 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
.


So everything I said earlier still stands correct. You just want to argue with me.
..Stop, you asked for us to capitulate, I told you why you should be the one to capitulate. Because I don't agree with you I want to argue. WTH did you ask?
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  #355  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:45 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
..Stop, you asked for us to capitulate, I told you why you should be the one to capitulate. Because I don't agree with you I want to argue. WTH did you ask?
Yes, I am waiting for you and some others to capitulate! that is correct!

I'm waiting....
waiting....
waiting...
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  #356  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:45 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Originally Posted by mdellis49 View Post
If you are under the illusion that this virus only is critical to the elderly and weak, please take it seriously:https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...cid=spartandhp
So a single, anecdotal, mid 40s patient, who is recovering, is indicative of ....?
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  #357  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:00 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Prove your position, beyond a reasonable doubt, with solid facts- and I'll be the first to say I was wrong. I'll fold like a cheap shirt.
I'm the King (or, at the very least, the Crown Prince) of "I was wrong, I stepped on my weenie " on this forum. I've lost track of the times I've publically changed position on this board. I'm not married to any disputed positions that I hold.
Show me something conclusive, and we can have a discussion. Keep citing "doom and gloom", the "sky is falling ", second by second raw, un- analyzed, unproven information... we'll get nowhere. Show me that you're using your own brain to sift through the data available, there's room for discussion. Cherry pick data points, with no original thought.... meh.

Everything Ive offered on this subject to date has been based on sound- albeit rudimentary- realities. All if my, admitted, amature, analysis is solid and logically. That the information being publicly disseminated is more severe than the reality (whatever the reason for doing so may be) is fairly clear.
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #358  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:29 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is online now
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Prove your position, beyond a reasonable doubt, with solid facts- and I'll be the first to say I was wrong. I'll fold like a cheap shirt.
I'm the King (or, at the very least, the Crown Prince) of "I was wrong, I stepped on my weenie " on this forum. I've lost track of the times I've publically changed position on this board. I'm not married to any disputed positions that I hold.
Show me something conclusive, and we can have a discussion. Keep citing "doom and gloom", the "sky is falling ", second by second raw, un- analyzed, unproven information... we'll get nowhere. Show me that you're using your own brain to sift through the data available, there's room for discussion. Cherry pick data points, with no original thought.... meh.

Everything Ive offered on this subject to date has been based on sound- albeit rudimentary- realities. All if my, admitted, amature, analysis is solid and logically. That the information being publicly disseminated is more severe than the reality (whatever the reason for doing so may be) is fairly clear.
Fair enough but none of us can prove our theories one way or another beyond a reasonable doubt at this time because we are right smack in the middle of an emerging event. It could go either way.

But many here still stick to the simple flu theory as oppose to the dangerous pandemic theory.

Lets look at that clown, the Mayor of NYC. Two weeks ago, he scoffed at a possible pandemic and told his New Yorker residents to live life as normal, that this covid 19 was nothing. At least he woke up to reality on that and switched his position to the detriment of the Trump administration. He now blames Trump for his municipal mismanagement of NYC. Typical Democrat, blaming others for their own mismanagement. But I give him credit for at least changing course.

March 11 2020 article:

He didn't want to cancel St Patrick's Day Parade, he wanted life to go on like normal in NYC. Now NYC is the nations Hotbed of covid 19 infections.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ity-mayor.html
Quote:
Aides conceded that the mayor was more focused on managing the crisis, on having life in New York go on as normal for as long as possible, while keeping an eye on his national ambitions — something that made him slow to recognize the growing threat.

Last edited by PolymerMan; 03-29-2020 at 06:31 PM.
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  #359  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:54 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Fair enough. The results won't be known for at least a few weeks...

To be quite clear, I'm firmly in the middle. This ISN'T the flu, though its spread so far and mortality rate is </= flu ...

Conversely, I don't think its a crisis of epic proportions. Itll take a death toll of 390 MILLION to be the equivalent of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic- 5% of the WORLD population, dead, as a direct result. There's no indication of this.

I'm not suggesting that individuals shouldn't take precautions. I told my parents, both elderly, and my father a cancer survivor with a trashed immune system, who live 30 minutes away, in mid February that I wouldn't be seeing them for at least 3 weeks- this timeline has moved to the right since. The reasons : 2 of my resident students arrived from SEA, on the same flight that brought SARS-CoV-2 to NC.... the limitations on testing prevent it in my case, and I feel fine- but I still limit my exposure to vulnerable populations. I also disclose my probable exposure to others as appropriate.

The problem with mass, unspecified "quarantine" is that its of limited effectiveness. Lets assume that you come from a "hot spot". You self quarantine for 2 weeks, as recommend. You're one of the 85% thats asymptomatic. You feel fine- but still carry the virus. How effective is the quarantine?

Looking at daily, cumulative case counts tells you nothing- because its an upward trajectory until it peaks, then levels out at that top number. Looking at cases by illness onset provides a pattern, and then a trend. THIS has analytical and predictive value. Per the CDC, the peak of onset was 15 MAR, with a massive downturn trend since.

I understand the deliberate, worst case position pushed by leaders. Its an effective tool on populace control. If you fuel the fear, people are far more willfully ro comply with restrictions- either ordered or recommended. Thats strat-com 101.

I've seen 2 extremes here over the last week or 2.... the really is most likely on the better side of center mass.
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #360  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:05 AM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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Blaming politicians of any shade is as unproductive as depending on them. The only one who can protect us is ourselves. Common sense says reduce unnecessary exposure whenever possible. Work with your own personal doctor if you have concerns. Create opportunities out of the situation to do something positive and productive with your life. Create a support network of your friends and family. It will be over when it is over, and that may be at different times for many of us. If you find yourself totally at a loss for what to do, go on YouTube and look at Russian traffic accidents. It will make you feel grateful.
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  #361  
Old 03-30-2020, 08:46 AM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
....POTUS and his CDC team are not sounding very cohesive. Most of the calls have been very good though. Fauci-F'd things up with his scare tactics this time around. They are not exhibiting confidence as a Team (including POTUS) (as they usually do).

And their actions are in-congruent with what they are saying....
.
Hmmmm......On one hand we have Dr Fauci.....Director of the Nat'l Institute for Infectious Disease since 1984, serving under 6 different presidents, educated at Holy Cross and his medical degree from Cornell. And on the other hand we have pOTUS who graduated "Top of His Class from Wharton"......yet has managed to shield so much as a glimpse of his grade school report card from public view.

Who to believe WRT anything regarding infectious disease??? Hmmmm......I mean.....it's a tough call really..... Hmmmm....a worldwide expert on infectious disease......or Mr. Top of His Class......???

Who F'd things up?? Damn.....tough call on this one....

Sorry CA..... Couldn't resist brother. You tee'd that one at just the right height and the fairway was clear.

LMAO!!!
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  #362  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:26 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Originally Posted by TRSOtto View Post
Hmmmm......On one hand we have Dr Fauci.....Director of the Nat'l Institute for Infectious Disease since 1984, serving under 6 different presidents, educated at Holy Cross and his medical degree from Cornell. And on the other hand we have pOTUS who graduated "Top of His Class from Wharton"......yet has managed to shield so much as a glimpse of his grade school report card from public view.

Who to believe WRT anything regarding infectious disease??? Hmmmm......I mean.....it's a tough call really..... Hmmmm....a worldwide expert on infectious disease......or Mr. Top of His Class......???

Who F'd things up?? Damn.....tough call on this one....

Sorry CA..... Couldn't resist brother. You tee'd that one at just the right height and the fairway was clear.

LMAO!!!
I know you are not a POTUS fan, and that is your prerogative of course, but if you believe we are going to have 1.7 M deaths over CV in the US alone, you need to check your biases when you log on in the morning.

It was a totally moronic thing to say by one of the Leads from the CDC. Even well educated people do stupid things sometimes (even me! LOL!), so all Fauci's credentials don't save him from a brain-fart...We have enough societal panic, we don't need anymore.

NEWSMAX: Dr. Fauci: Worst-Case Scenario Of Up To 1.7M Deaths From Coronavirus 'Possible'

It really isn't a Fauci vs Trump thing, it is more of a Fauci stand-alone brain-fart...
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-30-2020 at 10:21 AM.
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  #363  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:15 PM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
I know you are not a POTUS fan, and that is your prerogative of course, but if you believe we are going to have 1.7 M deaths over CV in the US alone, you need to check your biases when you log on in the morning.

It was a totally moronic thing to say by one of the Leads from the CDC. Even well educated people do stupid things sometimes (even me! LOL!), so all Fauci's credentials don't save him from a brain-fart...We have enough societal panic, we don't need anymore.

NEWSMAX: Dr. Fauci: Worst-Case Scenario Of Up To 1.7M Deaths From Coronavirus 'Possible'

It really isn't a Fauci vs Trump thing, it is more of a Fauci stand-alone brain-fart...
No....I agree with you. No way no how that we'll have 1.7M dead. Not in this country anyway. Now....the European countries and Africa.....I think it's totally possible for that to happen collectively over there. Densely packed poor hygiene, a box of BandAides for a health care system.

I just had to poke at you this morning. No ill intent meant.
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  #364  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:18 PM
RTK1 RTK1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Billf55 View Post
magazineman

you are a smart guy but you are going further and further off base. your argument depends on assumptions - pretty much all of them are factually incorrect

Corona viruses are a huge family and have been around forever. Every single person on earth has been exposed to 1000s of them. Corona viruses all have 99% of the same structure - sort of like people. This particular virus, Covid-19, has SOME unique features but again, very highly similar to the rest of its family. So, many people have conditional "immunity" to corona viruses and so to Covid-19...in varying degrees, as you can see from the distribution of its effects from No symptoms to minimal symptoms to severe symptoms to fatality....

this is NOT the Andromeda strain, and NOT what smallpox was to the Americas.

Influenze viruses mutate rapidly which is why there are new vaccines every year. AT the current time, it appears corona viruses, including this one, do NOT mutate rapidly, which is good for developing a vaccine

A given virus almost always becomes LESS pathogenic over time, because one that kills all its hosts rapidly does not "survive" .

Cold viruses are super successful because they do not kill the host and change all the time...

HIV is a perfect example of a deadly virus that has become much less pathogenic over time...I was in NYC during my residency as AIDS broke out, so I've seen what a virus can do and what happens over time.

No one (speaking for myself) is "denying" anything....but your projections are based on what you see as "common sense" or "logical reasoning"....but your assumptions are flat wrong. Again, I am on the front lines of this, as is my daughter who is an ICU nurse at Reagan (UCLA). I speak with her daily, so I have a much better idea of what is happening in CA with actual patients than you do...

This is NOT a dig - again, I appreciate the conversation and will defer to most of you about anything regarding guns....but again, this is an evolving situation and a very complex one, and oversimplifying does not help. I'm trying to give an outline in understanding viral illnesses, but a full discussion could take weeks!

If anyone wants my opinion on anything else relating to Covid-19 PM me or whatever...I'm happy to help but I'm not going to get down in the weeds over every new case reported.

Be safe

Bill
Spot On!!
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  #365  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:14 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Good Luck NY

Wow, what an image of Hope:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1244672122414338048
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  #366  
Old 03-30-2020, 04:10 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Those ships are civilian crewed by Merchant Mariners.

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Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
Medical staff are Navy, Officers are AMO my old outfit. Actually a kid that worked for me for a while when he first got out of the academy is the Chief mate now on the comfort.

Those things started out life as tankers.
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  #367  
Old 03-31-2020, 12:22 AM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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Having listened to the entire remarks made by Fauci, it is being totally misrepresented by the mainstream media and the democrats who are using everything they can to attack Trump. Fauci talked about how modeling is down and what parameters are used and how in most cases it is never as bad as the worst case scenario, nor as good as the best, but somewhere in between. He then remarked about the "possibility of 2 million as the extreme worst case scenario under one particular model, a couple of hundred thousand in the best case. He continued to say that for this reason it was impossible to honestly give any estimate and so he didn't. Again...this was entirely taken out of context, and I would have expected more honesty from some here.
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  #368  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:08 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
The original source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Same information. Exactly. From THE medical publication of record in the US. A doctor can say whatever he will on TV, withoutconsequence.. Reputations rise or fall on publications in the NEJM.
The same man, Dr. Fauci is now saying 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1
Quote:
The coronavirus outbreak could kill 100,000 to 200,000 Americans, the U.S. government’s top infectious-disease expert warned on Sunday as smoldering hotspots in nursing homes and a growing list of stricken cities heightened the sense of dread across the country.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, made the dire prediction of fatalities on CNN, adding that millions in the U.S. could become infected.
It's time some of you folks concede that this is a bit more than just a bad flu season. No?
Nah, the rate keeps going down and down and down just like we said it would.
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  #369  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:17 PM
AtlasFired AtlasFired is offline
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Many have said, essentially, "Look, this isn't going to be the end of the world." But what I think a lot of people don't fully appreciate is that to prevent the end of the world, it's prudent to approach the issue as though it could be the end of the world.

At this point I think it's clear to all -- this is a global pandemic.

At this point there are cases in every state, more than 8k people have died in the U.S., various elements of the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, to include healthcare workers on the frontlines not having the equipment they need, and in some cases there not being enough healthcare workers available in general.

And the doom and gloom part that remains is things are slated to get worse before they get better.

Someone said previously that if the worst case scenario never comes to bear, it will likely be because of the many organizations and individuals that "overreacted." As a country we need to band together now and actually BE America.

Of course to top it all off... we're now in recession with 10 million people filing for unemployment in just the last 2 weeks, hoping a stimulus plan of mythical proportions will keep us from a depression.

Praying for everyone's safety and welfare through these times. I've been thinking a lot lately that now is a good time for us to be the best versions of ourselves. Stay safe everyone.
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  #370  
Old 04-04-2020, 10:03 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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I am inclined to think.

That misinformation as well as plain old panic. That they are at least as much of a threat as anything else. Rumors get people pumped up, and they panic. Two guys fighting in the parking lot of a store over something that they may not even need, thats panic. And it is contagious. The next thing you know is that people are rioting and it gets worse.

Word gets out that there is a shortage. True or not, as soon as people hear this, all of a sudden they need to run out and buy some, and they create a shortage. I bet that right now there are any number of people worried about their food supply just because the pizza joint down the block closed due to lack of business.

I think that most of us are used to running into a stray nutjob here and there. For the most part they are harmless. But in times like this they go off their meds, and the professional nutjobs feel emboldened.

As has been well stated, Keep your powder dry!

Last edited by USMM guy; 04-04-2020 at 10:05 PM.
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