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  #1  
Old 04-02-2020, 06:54 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
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IF the current US numbers are accurate.....

The mortality rate works out to .024%. I believe many more are infected, which lowers the mortality rate......but as I’ve said before, the worst thing wouldn’t be to contract it, so much as transmit it to some poor soul not strong enough to survive it.

Now is a time to be selfless, not selfish.
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  #2  
Old 04-02-2020, 08:14 PM
warp2diesel warp2diesel is offline
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Here is the best Covid-19 projections I have found so far.
Keep in mind 80% - 85% will catch Covid-19 with mild symptoms and never be factored into the numbers. This link has choices for the US as a Whole and each state: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
When the graph goes flat line, travel is safer but not totally safe for that respective state.

To break down those who with catch Crovid-19 by age group and be confirmed by tests by our neighbors to the North (Canada) here is some of their data: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-cases.html#a3 I expect the same 80% - 85% to have mild symptoms, never be tested or factored into the numbers.

Normally I travel US & Canada for my work, but now I am working from home.
Everybody stay safe.

Last edited by warp2diesel; 04-02-2020 at 08:16 PM.
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  #3  
Old 04-02-2020, 08:32 PM
jamiesaun jamiesaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
The mortality rate works out to .024%. I believe many more are infected, which lowers the mortality rate......but as I’ve said before, the worst thing wouldn’t be to contract it, so much as transmit it to some poor soul not strong enough to survive it.

Now is a time to be selfless, not selfish.
I've been tracking it every day in the us. It went from 1.5 for about a week then to 2 down to 1.7 yesterday, and haven't checked it today. Needless to say, it's pretty low so far. None of this takes into account how many cases go unreported, which would drop that number even more.

Do we feel stupid yet?
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Old 04-02-2020, 08:38 PM
jamiesaun jamiesaun is offline
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Looks like it's back up over 2% again. Just barely.

4513/213144= .021%

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Old 04-02-2020, 08:40 PM
jamiesaun jamiesaun is offline
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That's not to say we are making the wrong choice, fortunately, I don't have to make that call. But is the juice worth the squeeze? Seems like it's worth asking.

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  #6  
Old 04-02-2020, 08:40 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiesaun View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
The mortality rate works out to .024%. I believe many more are infected, which lowers the mortality rate......but as I’ve said before, the worst thing wouldn’t be to contract it, so much as transmit it to some poor soul not strong enough to survive it.

Now is a time to be selfless, not selfish.
I've been tracking it every day in the us. It went from 1.5 for about a week then to 2 down to 1.7 yesterday, and haven't checked it today. Needless to say, it's pretty low so far. None of this takes into account how many cases go unreported, which would drop that number even more.

Do we feel stupid yet?
No. We should feel cautious. I’d love to see the mortality rate plummet, but until it does, if not screwing with anyone else’s well being.
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Old 04-02-2020, 08:42 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiesaun View Post
I've been tracking it every day in the us. It went from 1.5 for about a week then to 2 down to 1.7 yesterday, and haven't checked it today. Needless to say, it's pretty low so far. None of this takes into account how many cases go unreported, which would drop that number even more.

Do we feel stupid yet?
When we consider the unreported cases, the number doesn't drop- it nosedives off a cliff, it tanks to a figure so low as to be irrelevant in the course of human history....
I said this 3 weeks ago- but "kitchen table" science seems to be frowned upon here....
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  #8  
Old 04-02-2020, 08:49 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiesaun View Post
I've been tracking it every day in the us. It went from 1.5 for about a week then to 2 down to 1.7 yesterday, and haven't checked it today. Needless to say, it's pretty low so far. None of this takes into account how many cases go unreported, which would drop that number even more.

Do we feel stupid yet?
When we consider the unreported cases, the number doesn't drop- it nosedives off a cliff, it tanks to a figure so low as to be irrelevant in the course of human history....
I said this 3 weeks ago- but "kitchen table" science seems to be frowned upon here....
Nothing would be better news, than for your statement to be correct.

But until we know more about what those unreported numbers are, or the facts about how it can be spread.........who’s willing to be the gambling cowboy. With other people’s health at the moment?

Selfless not selfish, humble not arrogant is the way I’m proceeding.
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Old 04-02-2020, 09:00 PM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
When we consider the unreported cases, the number doesn't drop- it nosedives off a cliff, it tanks to a figure so low as to be irrelevant in the course of human history....
I said this 3 weeks ago- but "kitchen table" science seems to be frowned upon here....
You might have a different position if you were in the trenches living it and treating it, or trying.
The new fast test came out today in Bergen cty, NJ. Which should be a big help not only for the patient, but lessening the contamination of healthcare personnel while reducing the use of protective gear.
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Old 04-02-2020, 09:14 PM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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I appreciate and value input from various perspectives as to how serious coronavirus really is.

Despite my rather negative view of U.S. mainstream media (especially CNN), I don't think the stories being told, via interviews, by hospital physicians and nurses are false.

I'm also inclined to believe the number of bodybags ordered and President Trump's current statements as to the danger and human pain being caused by this invisible enemy...and his statement that the next two weeks (at minimum) are going to be tough, with thousands of people losing loved ones they did not expect to lose at this time and in this manner.

---

Not a wholly unrelated subject is Darwin-like survival of the fittest thinking as applied to coronavirus:

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484696-euge...m-coronavirus/
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 04-02-2020 at 09:23 PM.
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  #11  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:38 PM
buckhorn_cortez buckhorn_cortez is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
The mortality rate works out to .024%. I believe many more are infected, which lowers the mortality rate......but as I’ve said before, the worst thing wouldn’t be to contract it, so much as transmit it to some poor soul not strong enough to survive it.

Now is a time to be selfless, not selfish.
How did you arrive at that number? Using the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 interactive map, the numbers are: 5911 / 245070 = 2.41 percent.

5911 = number of deaths
245070 = number of active cases

Numbers from the map are current at 7:52pm EST, 4-2-2020.

Link to the map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

If you divided the numbers and come with 0.0241 you need to move the decimal two places to the right to get percentage (multiply by 100).
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  #12  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:45 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is offline
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I think that it helps to keep things in perspective.

During the +/- ten years that we were involved in the Vietnam war. We reportedly lost 58,000 people to that debacle. This pandemic is going to take a lot more people than that, and in a much shorter time period. I guess that it all depends on your perspective.
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  #13  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:46 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buckhorn_cortez View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
The mortality rate works out to .024%. I believe many more are infected, which lowers the mortality rate......but as I’ve said before, the worst thing wouldn’t be to contract it, so much as transmit it to some poor soul not strong enough to survive it.

Now is a time to be selfless, not selfish.
How did you arrive at that number? Using the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 interactive map, the numbers are: 5911 / 245070 = 2.41 percent.

5911 = number of deaths
245070 = number of active cases

Numbers from the map are current at 7:52pm EST, 4-2-2020.

Link to the map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

If you divided the numbers and come with 0.0241 you need to move the decimal two places to the right to get percentage (multiply by 100).
My raw numbers were lower several hours ago, but you’re correct......should have typed 2.407, rather than .02407.
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  #14  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:47 PM
Sistema1927 Sistema1927 is offline
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I think that the more important number is deaths per million population. Unless everybody is tested, how will you know how many cases there are? And even then, what if someone gets tested, comes back with a negative result, then gets infected, but is asymptomatic?

Note that even then, we will never be able to compare to other nations due to several factors:

1) I wouldn't trust China if they said that water was wet.
2) Many deaths in other countries will never be reported due to lack of testing or poor medical systems.
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