CA now locked down - Page 13 - 1911Forum
1911Forum
Advertise Here
Forum   Reviews   Rules   Legal   Site Supporters & Donations   Advertise


Go Back   1911Forum > >

Notices


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #301  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:04 AM
magazineman magazineman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,075
The key is TRAJECTORY ---------- where are we headed if we (the US) stay on our current course?

Well, let's see. on 5/23 I posted numbers on the US confirmed cases and deaths:

It was 32,000 cases and 471 dead. That was 4 days ago. And today it's:
86,000 cases, 1,301 dead.

Nearly TRIPLED in only 4 DAYS in BOTH categories.

I swear man, if you guys can't see the trajectory here you would think that a small fire in only one corner of your firework factory is "no big deal" ----------------------------------------- hey, it's only gotten the Sparklers so far............
Reply With Quote
  #302  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:11 AM
RTK1 RTK1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Left Coast, Kalifornia
Age: 58
Posts: 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
The key is TRAJECTORY ---------- where are we headed if we (the US) stay on our current course?

Well, let's see. on 5/23 I posted numbers on the US confirmed cases and deaths:

It was 32,000 cases and 471 dead. That was 4 days ago. And today it's:
86,000 cases, 1,301 dead.

Nearly TRIPLED in only 4 DAYS in BOTH categories.

I swear man, if you guys can't see the trajectory here you would think that a small fire in only one corner of your firework factory is "no big deal" ----------------------------------------- hey, it's only gotten the Sparklers so far............
In my neck of the woods it’s taking 10 days to get results back, add that to the fact testing is skyrocketing as of late.
What would you expect?? It is NOT increasing at that rate we are just discovering who had it or has it at an increasing rate.

Last edited by RTK1; 03-27-2020 at 11:26 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #303  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:12 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,066
All to be expected. A climb is normal, moreso with the increase is actual testing. Look at the link I provided, at least 3 separate times. THAT will provide information that can be used to project trajectory.

The daily confirmed cases/mortality numbers tell you nothing about where this is going- only where it has been.... Everything these numbers represent, tell you, happened about 2 weeks ago- not yesterday or today.
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #304  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:19 AM
Billf55 Billf55 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 26
wccountry boy is correct.

magazineman, I've found many of your posts useful and entertaining...but you are just missing the point here. RAW numbers are very misleading. Italy has almost as many cases as US with much smaller population, and 7x the "death rate"....

but the conclusion that the virus is more deadly in Italy is specious without more data...
Reply With Quote
  #305  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:49 AM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,431
Wow so many nay-sayers that ignore the of science of epidemiology, mathematics, microbiology, virology and replace it with kitchen table epistemology.

I suppose the same folks will argue that it is momentum not kinetic energy that determines terminal ballistics, despite the body of solid science behind the theories.
Reply With Quote
  #306  
Old 03-27-2020, 12:10 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Hooterville in S.C. Kansas
Posts: 7,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billf55 View Post
I've resisted entering this conversation...and while I could type a 2 page wall of text I don't think that will help either. Most of you know lots more than I do about 1911s - but I am a physician for more than 30 years and have been the Chief of Staff of an urban hospital.

let me just say this - many of you are WAY out over your skis as they say!

99% of my colleagues...and all the smart ones - do NOT put credence in the doomsday scenarios. The Flu absolutely kills huge numbers of people each year, and it's like "Ho, hum, the flu"

young people are MUCH more at risk of dying from MVA and overdose than Covid-19 and the elderly/sick are the ones who die of everything, all the time...but we don't register it as such in society, while in the hospital we are only too aware of this.

As far as number - all you have so far are datapoints...in an incomplete and evolving model...layered on speculation from other viral pathogens. Discussions of "Long-term lung damage" are WAY premature. We won't know for more than a year. Everyone who has ever smoked a cigarette, joint or cigar had "lung damage" - the question is - is it clinically significant???

So....be smart and be safe...but do NOT panic and try to resist sharing the "latest" scoop that appears in the media. Fauci and the others on the task force have a good handle on this...trust me, you do NOT know more than they do.
I've met Antony Fauci and he is smart and serious - I cannot believe he would falsify anything for political reasons. He is not infallible of course, and we are going to make medical mistakes dealing with this...but so far I think we are doing well all things considered.

now, back to your regularly scheduled program - teach me more about 1911s..

Bill
I "Bolded" it because I wanted to stress it.

"Prudence and not Panic" is how I've been putting it.
__________________
I hope and pray that none may kill me, Nor I kill any, with woundings grim. But if ever any should think to kill me, I pray thee, God, let me kill him first
I leave this rule for others when I'm dead, Be always sure you're right — THEN GO AHEAD! Davy Crockett
Reply With Quote
  #307  
Old 03-27-2020, 12:14 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billf55 View Post
So....be smart and be safe...but do NOT panic and try to resist sharing the "latest" scoop that appears in the media. Fauci and the others on the task force have a good handle on this...trust me, you do NOT know more than they do.
I've met Antony Fauci and he is smart and serious - I cannot believe he would falsify anything for political reasons. He is not infallible of course, and we are going to make medical mistakes dealing with this...but so far I think we are doing well all things considered.

Bill
You seem to have a great wealth of knowledge, experience, and analytical ability- this is a subject in which you should be contributing more. Share the benefits of your experience.

I'm curious as to your thoughts considering a question regarding the bolded segment above. I don't doubt or question for a moment DR Fauci's experience, expertise, or ethics. I don't doubt that he is apolitical in such matters. I don't believe that he is disseminating false or untrue information.

That said, in your opinion and/or experience, would DR Fauci, others in similar positions, or even yourself, place emphasis on pushing data that emphasizes worst case, or overstates the actual impact of a serious medical event, rather than pushing information that creates a more realistic, accurate picture- if doing so would influence behavior of the populace in a manner that would facilitate limiting spread and managing the event more effectively?
Consider 2 ways of skinning the cat:

I say that the event really isn't that serious or catastrophic, and suggest attention to hygiene, limiting contact with others, and shutting down business and public assembly.
Or:
I pitch the event as an apocalyptic disaster of epic propositions- yes, I'm taking some creative license with my description. The same mitigation measures are recommended- but paired with "orders" in some places.

Which method is more likely to curb spread? Which is more likely to be well recieved by the populace?

Again, this isn't a question of ethics, or even medicine. Its more appropriately a question of strat-comm and human dynamics....
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #308  
Old 03-27-2020, 12:32 PM
Billf55 Billf55 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 26
I think there is Clearly pressure on Fauci and others...from many sides! I think if you watch the press conferences carefully you can see this in his body language and choice of words. Someone in his position must be clear, but not overly technical, which I think he's doing well. Birx too.

But...someone as smart and knowledgeable as he is also will always hedge their bets in an uncertain and evolving situation. Generally, the best physicians will try to be optimistic in a bad situation unless that are CERTAIN that it is a true disaster. My reading of him, my colleagues and my own assessment is that this is a serious but not insurmountable problem and that we are clearly making progress in the right direction. The next few weeks will provide very useful data and pre-judging the outcome is stupid...
Reply With Quote
  #309  
Old 03-27-2020, 01:26 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,075
Let's roll with comparisons to the Seasonal (regular) flu because many here are doing that.

It kills, say, 40,000 - 60,000 per year. Right?

Now how is THAT illness (not the numbers, the pathogen itself) different from Covid 19, as it pertains to how it can affect us?

Well, The Flu (& smallpox, measles, & typhus) have been common in most human populations for centuries. So most folks have a certain level of resistance to them. That's why we don't die in droves after going to a ball game.

But Covid 19 is different. It crossed over from animals a few months ago. Not A THOUSAND+ years ago. So humans have, essentially NO genetic or direct resistance AT ALL to this one.

And, as previously discussed the REGULAR flu that we ALL been exposed to & are somewhat immune to, & we have vaccines for, STILL kills 40-60K people yearly.

So what ALL OF MANKIND is facing now is very similar to what the people of The Americas faced in the 1400's - 1700's.

A few Europeans show up. Some carrying pathogens that the natives had never been exposed to.

Just like how WE have never been exposed to C19.

These diseases (Flu,Measles, Smallpox) killed at least HALF of the native people living in the Americas at that time.

So now we have Vaccines for these pathogens COMBINED with natural immunity.

But for C19 WE HAVE NEITHER. NO resistance, Zero resistance, man-made or otherwise. No tools to stop it, other than staying home.

-------------- You know what they say about people who ignore history!

Actually this denial of what we are facing, by 2A supporters of all people, surprises me. Our support of Gun Rights is based on historical precedent.

And we ridicule & make fun of people who don't think history can & will repeat.

But here we are. Columbus has come to our shores & he's not feeling well.
Reply With Quote
  #310  
Old 03-27-2020, 01:54 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Central Ohio
Posts: 7,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
Let's roll with comparisons to the Seasonal (regular) flu because many here are doing that.

It kills, say, 40,000 - 60,000 per year. Right?

Now how is THAT illness (not the numbers, the pathogen itself) different from Covid 19, as it pertains to how it can affect us?

Well, The Flu (& smallpox, measles, & typhus) have been common in most human populations for centuries. So most folks have a certain level of resistance to them. That's why we don't die in droves after going to a ball game.

But Covid 19 is different. It crossed over from animals a few months ago. Not A THOUSAND+ years ago. So humans have, essentially NO genetic or direct resistance AT ALL to this one.

And, as previously discussed the REGULAR flu that we ALL been exposed to & are somewhat immune to, & we have vaccines for, STILL kills 40-60K people yearly.

So what ALL OF MANKIND is facing now is very similar to what the people of The Americas faced in the 1400's - 1700's.

A few Europeans show up. Some carrying pathogens that the natives had never been exposed to.

Just like how WE have never been exposed to C19.

These diseases (Flu,Measles, Smallpox) killed at least HALF of the native people living in the Americas at that time.

So now we have Vaccines for these pathogens COMBINED with natural immunity.

But for C19 WE HAVE NEITHER. NO resistance, Zero resistance, man-made or otherwise. No tools to stop it, other than staying home.

-------------- You know what they say about people who ignore history!

Actually this denial of what we are facing, by 2A supporters of all people, surprises me. Our support of Gun Rights is based on historical precedent.

And we ridicule & make fun of people who don't think history can & will repeat.

But here we are. Columbus has come to our shores & he's not feeling well.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html

Many different types already. Not anything super different that our systems are totally blind to like HIV
__________________
Carry gun:Wilson Carry Comp Custom .45S Pocket carry:on loan Other 1911s:WC Supergrade Accucomp .38, WC BW Opticomp, WC CQB Compact, WC CQB Professional, WC Super Sentinel, WC CQB Elite 9mm, WC EDC X9, WC X9S, Ed Brown SR, NHC Predator II Opticomp, NHC T3 Hardchrome, Kimber Ultra, ATI Tactical, RIA Tactical 10mm, Kimber Ultra Diamond 9mm, Detonics Combat Master MKVI, Colt Centennial .460 Roland
Reply With Quote
  #311  
Old 03-27-2020, 01:56 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,431
I want to play kitchen table epidemiology TOO!!!

Lets use the cruise ship, Zaandam (Holland America line). They reported an outbreak of a respiratory illness on-board. There are 586 crew members, and 1243 guest/passengers. That is a total population of 1829. It is a good model because it is a closed system... no one comes on and no one disembarks.

They have reported 4 deaths from a respiratory illness. There are only two confirm Covid 19 confirmations but there are a reported 138 reported illnesses with flu like symptoms.
https://www.wesh.com/article/4-dead-...erica/31958308

But lets do some kitchen table extrapolation... shall we?

Based on 4 deaths and a population of 1829... a microcosm petri dish of a larger population, lets extrapolate the number of deaths in a population of say??? 340 million people... right? Nice round number where the borders are semi-sealed.

The extrapolation would be 743,575 deaths. That is not a number to sneeze at!

Don't believe me... do the simple unscientific math so many people like to use.

4/1829 x 340,000,000 = 743,575.

Do I believe that is scientific... no. But since it is the same kitchen table science and countryboy epistemology that is being thrown all over the place, I present the possibility that 743,575 people will die.

Hence what I said before and will say again, prepare for the worse and hope for the best.
Reply With Quote
  #312  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:00 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Rocky mountain area
Posts: 659
COVID-19 isn’t as bad as many are portraying, and it’s worse than many others are saying.

Prudence and preparation over panic. As with all things, the end result will fall somewhere between the two extremes.

On a personal level, until more is known, is seems very prudent to err on the side of calm caution.

It’s one thing to get it, and brag like an idiot ‘not that bad, I slept it off in a day or so, vs finding out later you were responsible for transmitting it to someone who couldn’t fight it off.
Reply With Quote
  #313  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:02 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,066
And even with that "none", "zero" resistance, only 15% become "seriously" ill, and of that 15%, only 1.5% die.... and thats assuming that "confirmed" cases are the "serious " ones.

Magaman, I've seen your work here for years. You're usually very rational, logical, and well reasoned. Even when we disagree...

In this case, you seem to have a private, 1st class coach on the express, non stop, panic train. Even the tone of what you're writing, with heavy use of capitalization and emphasis, conveys fear. It's not the Magazine man that I'm familiar with. You're wrapped up with mortality ÷confidence cases. You're not looking at this holistically, taking into account other facts and data points. You're not analyzing the bulk of the information available . You seem stuck on one, very simplistic and rudimentary, pair of numbers.

Brother, I've seen you work through complex problems before. I've seen you use realistic assumptions to illustrate a point. I KNOW you're much more capable than you're demonstrating here.

We know that there are vastly more actual cases than those "confirmed". We know that the vast majority of incidents of this illness are "unconfirmed". We know that this is following a normal epidemiological pattern. We know that China hit its peak on this a month ago.

You made your fortune in real estate. While pre existing analytical tools probably didn't exist then, you had a talant for analysis and prediction in your profession- even if it was more subconscious and intuitive- your likely would have been as successful otherwise. Just for kicks, ignore mortality/ "confirmed" cases for a while. Look at the weath of other informants available. Chew on it a bit. What does that indicate to you?
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #314  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:07 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Central Ohio
Posts: 7,046
Meanwhile at the local ERs the doctors are beginning to get annoyed at the constant flow of morons claiming shortness of breath to force a test. Wasting time and actually increasing their risk
__________________
Carry gun:Wilson Carry Comp Custom .45S Pocket carry:on loan Other 1911s:WC Supergrade Accucomp .38, WC BW Opticomp, WC CQB Compact, WC CQB Professional, WC Super Sentinel, WC CQB Elite 9mm, WC EDC X9, WC X9S, Ed Brown SR, NHC Predator II Opticomp, NHC T3 Hardchrome, Kimber Ultra, ATI Tactical, RIA Tactical 10mm, Kimber Ultra Diamond 9mm, Detonics Combat Master MKVI, Colt Centennial .460 Roland
Reply With Quote
  #315  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:08 PM
Billf55 Billf55 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 26
magazineman

you are a smart guy but you are going further and further off base. your argument depends on assumptions - pretty much all of them are factually incorrect

Corona viruses are a huge family and have been around forever. Every single person on earth has been exposed to 1000s of them. Corona viruses all have 99% of the same structure - sort of like people. This particular virus, Covid-19, has SOME unique features but again, very highly similar to the rest of its family. So, many people have conditional "immunity" to corona viruses and so to Covid-19...in varying degrees, as you can see from the distribution of its effects from No symptoms to minimal symptoms to severe symptoms to fatality....

this is NOT the Andromeda strain, and NOT what smallpox was to the Americas.

Influenze viruses mutate rapidly which is why there are new vaccines every year. AT the current time, it appears corona viruses, including this one, do NOT mutate rapidly, which is good for developing a vaccine

A given virus almost always becomes LESS pathogenic over time, because one that kills all its hosts rapidly does not "survive" .

Cold viruses are super successful because they do not kill the host and change all the time...

HIV is a perfect example of a deadly virus that has become much less pathogenic over time...I was in NYC during my residency as AIDS broke out, so I've seen what a virus can do and what happens over time.

No one (speaking for myself) is "denying" anything....but your projections are based on what you see as "common sense" or "logical reasoning"....but your assumptions are flat wrong. Again, I am on the front lines of this, as is my daughter who is an ICU nurse at Reagan (UCLA). I speak with her daily, so I have a much better idea of what is happening in CA with actual patients than you do...

This is NOT a dig - again, I appreciate the conversation and will defer to most of you about anything regarding guns....but again, this is an evolving situation and a very complex one, and oversimplifying does not help. I'm trying to give an outline in understanding viral illnesses, but a full discussion could take weeks!

If anyone wants my opinion on anything else relating to Covid-19 PM me or whatever...I'm happy to help but I'm not going to get down in the weeds over every new case reported.

Be safe

Bill
Reply With Quote
  #316  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:33 PM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 13,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
I want to play kitchen table epidemiology TOO!!!

Lets use the cruise ship, Zaandam (Holland America line). They reported an outbreak of a respiratory illness on-board. There are 586 crew members, and 1243 guest/passengers. That is a total population of 1829. It is a good model because it is a closed system... no one comes on and no one disembarks.

They have reported 4 deaths from a respiratory illness. There are only two confirm Covid 19 confirmations but there are a reported 138 reported illnesses with flu like symptoms.
https://www.wesh.com/article/4-dead-...erica/31958308

But lets do some kitchen table extrapolation... shall we?

Based on 4 deaths and a population of 1829... a microcosm petri dish of a larger population, lets extrapolate the number of deaths in a population of say??? 340 million people... right? Nice round number where the borders are semi-sealed.

The extrapolation would be 743,575 deaths. That is not a number to sneeze at!

Don't believe me... do the simple unscientific math so many people like to use.

4/1829 x 340,000,000 = 743,575.

Do I believe that is scientific... no. But since it is the same kitchen table science and countryboy epistemology that is being thrown all over the place, I present the possibility that 743,575 people will die.

Hence what I said before and will say again, prepare for the worse and hope for the best.
Your analysis is assuming that the 1829 passengers are representative of a population of 340 million.

Justify that assumption.

Hint:. You can't.
Reply With Quote
  #317  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:46 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by TRSOtto View Post
Your analysis is assuming that the 1829 passengers are representative of a population of 340 million.

Justify that assumption.

Hint:. You can't.
It aslo assumes that a closed system, with a massive population density, and comfortable, recirculate air, is representative of the US as a whole...
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #318  
Old 03-27-2020, 02:54 PM
Sailormilan2 Sailormilan2 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Behind the lines in Occupied Central CA
Posts: 986
Our noon news here in the South End of the CA Central Valley stated that we have just had our first death, with 35 confirmed cases.
According to the news, the mortality rate here in the US is about 1.5%, and for the rest of the world it's about 4.5%. But, and they stressed this, that was for confirmed cases. Obviously, if there are many more unconfirmed, assymptomatic cases, that will cut the percentage down.
Reply With Quote
  #319  
Old 03-27-2020, 03:07 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,431
Quote:
Originally Posted by TRSOtto View Post
Your analysis is assuming that the 1829 passengers are representative of a population of 340 million.

Justify that assumption.

Hint:. You can't.
You haven't read what I wrote or at least you don't understand why I wrote that... I don't have to prove anything because the projection I made is just as careless and pseudo-scientific as the nay-sayers comparing this to the Flu. Period.

This is not the flu.

Sitting at home and second guessing the CDC or Anthony Fauci, and other established epidemiologists worldwide is equally as careless as making a doomsday prediction. That is my point. I will listen to the people that have established credentials.
Reply With Quote
  #320  
Old 03-27-2020, 03:08 PM
SC shooter SC shooter is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: In the pines
Age: 60
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
In shocked, utterly shocked! Weren't these concepts proposed here a week ago...?

I've posted it before, but its worth doing again:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

If you want information with predictive value, where this is going, take a good look at the data compiled under 'cases by illness onset'. This will indicate when people actually contracted the disease- not when they tested + for it. The trend developing is interesting....

Raw numbers and poor process- or even good process- only provides collated information, its still raw.
80k cases and 1k deaths or 1.5% mortality are just numbers, its just information. You have to use that grey matter between your ears to do some analysis, actually think about the information you have, process it, and form an opinion....

When it comes to the discussion at hand I will admit I am only a pawn among kings. Countryboy the data you provided if I am reading it correctly looks like cases that we know the date of illness onset peaked around March 15. It takes anywhere from 2 to 14 days for symptoms to show according to the CDC. If we go back and say people who caught it on March 1 would show symptoms at least by the 15th and we do this for each day after the 1st adding 14 days to those dates and if it continues to trend in that direction for another week or so it would be good news.

There is a possibility the number of unknown cases as of yet increasing but if we make it through another week or two without a higher peak in that particular data it looks like the measures put in place may have greatly reduced the spread of the virus.

Whether we have made it through the worst of it or if that is still to come I pray for everyone who is affected by this virus in any way. It has had an effect on most everyone in some way. I pray for the families who have lost loved ones and others who have or may lose their livelihoods. I pray for those whose jobs put them at risk to this virus trying to help and heal others. Good luck everyone and stay safe.
__________________
I am a proud to be a member of the NRA, GOA, FPC and The 2nd Amendment Foundation

Last edited by SC shooter; 03-27-2020 at 03:18 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #321  
Old 03-27-2020, 03:27 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by SC shooter View Post
When it comes to the discussion at hand I will admit I am only a pawn among kings. Countryboy the data you provided if I am reading it correctly looks like cases that we know the date of illness onset peaked around March 15. It takes anywhere from 2 to 14 days for symptoms to show according to the CDC. If we go back and say people who caught it on March 1 would show symptoms at least by the 15th and we do this for each day after the 1st and if it continues to trend in that direction for another week or so it would be good news.

There is a possibility the number of unknown cases as of yet increasing but if we make it through another week or two without a higher peak in that particular data it looks like the measures put in place may have greatly reduced the spread of the virus.

Whether we have made it through the worst of it or if that is still to come I pray for everyone who is affected by this virus in any way. It has had an effect on most everyone in some way. I pray for the families who have lost loved ones and others who have or may lose their livelihoods. I pray for those whose jobs put them at risk to this virus trying to help and heal others. Good luck everyone and stay safe.
This, Sir, is analysis... you understand how to take raw information, digest it, and form a conclusion... or at least identify a trend.
In the interest of full disclosure, 2 of the daya, on the far right of the scale, were zeros 2 days ago. Now they are 1s... not a particularly significant change- or a 100% increase, in one day.... depends on ones perspective.
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #322  
Old 03-27-2020, 03:52 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,075
My writings on this are to illustrate a point. That this is a damn big deal. With the distinct possibility of becoming a far bigger deal in short order.

It seems to me that the people who are saying that it isn't are paying more attention to Trump the politician and less to his infinitely more knowledgeable & practical Dr Fauci.

Actually, seeing them both at press conferences, you can see the doc's tension as he tries to diplomatically "adjust" the statements made by T without getting fired. Which could easily happen in spite of being a trusted, expert immunologist since Reagan.

And yes, there are other Corona viruses. But this strain is new. Hence the name NOVEL Corona Virus. Novel as in new.
Reply With Quote
  #323  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:00 PM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 6,408
This is awesome, you guys thunking each other over the head and all!! Even Bill got into the fracas!
Just like a good ole powder burn....these results are not linear. Test results are not increasing at a steady rate, they are erratic as hell, reports are all over, how many are walking around like zombies that haven't been tested and are positive.
Probably the only thing consistent is the deaths. They have been in the hospitals and are easily counted. That is the only "Trajectory" that has merit. My wife was tested 2 weeks ago and still hasn't been notified (they said either way). All of a sudden a "batch" will come flying through with 10,000 results from one area, 20,000 from the next and people think that happened in one day.....
Reply With Quote
  #324  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:00 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Home of the Infantry
Posts: 4,778
When do you think the CA lockdown will be over?

Last edited by HarryO45; 03-27-2020 at 04:11 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #325  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:04 PM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 6,408
When Goofy surrenders the Magic Kingdom!!
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:32 AM.


NOTICE TO USERS OF THIS SITE: By continuing to use this site, you certify that you have read and agree to abide by the Legal Terms of Use. All information, data, text or other materials ("Content") posted to this site by any users are the sole responsibility of those users. 1911Forum does not guarantee the accuracy, integrity, or quality of such Content.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright 2015 1911Forum.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved