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The coming weather changes

3K views 25 replies 19 participants last post by  NonHyphenAmerican 
#1 ·
I view a lot from another forum on SHTF stuff and the talk for the last almost 2 yrs is the Grand Solar Minimum that has started . This is the sun cycle that goes into a low output near no sun spot cycle . This causes a few problems but the one we'll see soon is a reduction in food production . Through out history this has popped up about every 200 yrs or so and a good look at what they have called the little ice ages will bare this out . This summer look for a decline in wheat harvest , watch the weather for worsting events that may damage crops in general. Watch food prices and don't wait to stock up , we may see things get very expensive . If you want proof search the number of sun spots this year , no spots dropping energy , read up folks hard times are coming .
 
#7 ·
read up folks hard times are coming .
for who?
surely you're not talking famine in the US ????

are you suggesting the average family's food budget will increase so much to put them in peril?

if so, guess the EBT card folks will have to sacrifice the Doritos and Slimjims to make sure there's cereal and milk for their kids

average working folk might have to sacrifice the $10 box of popcorn and $5 Skittles at the movies...and go to matinees instead of evening shows

I'll bet my last Little Debbie oatmeal cream pie there will be no shortage of bread, bacon, beans, butter and Little Debbie Nutty Bars on the shelves in America and Canada

sun spots and falling sky notwithstanding......


..L.T.A.
 
#8 ·
I am investing deeply.

Into corn dog and Ho Ho futures.
 
#10 ·
..... the talk for the last almost 2 yrs is the Grand Solar Minimum that has started . This is the sun cycle that goes into a low output near no sun spot cycle . This causes a few problems but the one we'll see soon is a reduction in food production . ... .
It really doesn't, and will have no impact at all on the warming trend that the earth is currently experiencing.

ie: any insignificant decline in temp related to reduced sunspot activity will pail in significance to the much larger increases in temp that the planet is seeing.

https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=21

Sorry to blow holes in your fun planning.
 
#17 ·
Ending stocks on grains are huge. We’ve grown so much grain the last couple years prices are below cost of production. Sorry man, but I’m praying for something like this! A couple more years like this and I won’t plant any corn or small grains. Doing so would bankrupt me. One pivot is going to oats for grazing this spring because I can’t afford to grow so much corn at low or negative margin.

As to all the betting, I’ll bet neither warming or cooling will significantly affect food production even if either one happens. People are trying to scare you. Farmers aren’t stupid. We used to grow grain sorghum here. Now it is too cool and humid so we grow corn and soybeans. No big deal. Nobody is going hungry.

Prepare for loss of job, tornados, ice storms , hurricanes, etc. that will happen and will affect you. If there is ever hunger in this country it will be from political causes. The same reason there is hunger in 99% of cases around the world.
 
#18 ·
The biggest decline in solar cycle 24 occured from 2014-2017. According to your hypothesis we should have seen food shortages the last couple years but the exact opposite occured? Perhaps you have put too much emphasis on one factor of crop production? Fear porn is all this is. BTW there is no global warming. Pleanty of other things to worry about...
 
#19 · (Edited)
...talk for the last almost 2 yrs is the Grand Solar Minimum that has started .
The biggest decline in solar cycle 24 occured from 2014-2017
Nope. Neither statement is even close to accurate.

Solar Cycle 24 started in 2008. There was minimal solar activity (sunspots) in 2008, 2009, and 2010. In 2011 solar activity started picking up. To directly address the statement that "the biggest decline occurred from 2014-2017" - here are the sunspot numbers for those years.

2014, ONE DAY without sunspots.

2015, ZERO days without sunspots.

2016, 32 days without sunspots.

2017, 104 days without sunspots.

The lowest number of sunspots in the 21st century to date, has been 2008 (200 days with no sunspots) and 2009 (260 days with no sunspots). I don't remember the famines of 2008 and 2009. How about you?

So far, in 2018, we've had 21 days without sunspots.

The sun goes through 11 year cycles where sunspots are reduced and then come back.

The Maunder Minimum was from 1645 to 1715 and resulted in a mini ice age.

The next prolonged period of low sunspot activity like the Maunder Minimum is predicted to start in 2030. I guess we'll have to wait and see if that prediction is any better than the latest weather report for accuracy...

I think you're attempting a make a problem out of normal solar cycles...

BTW - if you want actual accurate data on solar weather, I'd suggest going to SpaceWeather.com If you go to the SpaceWeather homepage, you will see the solar data on the left hand side of the screen. This includes a live picture of the sun, current solar wind, X-ray solar flare, and a listing of the number of sunspots and a total for the year. Compiled sunspot data for past years is available underneath the daily sunspot number and yearly total of days without sunspots.

So far, in 2018, we've had three consecutive days without sunspots and today, 2-20-2018, there are zero (0) sunspots.
 
#22 · (Edited)
I'm a ham I watch it daily. Don't confuse me with the global warming crowd. I perform heat load calculations daily and am well aware of the zero effect that the specific heat of Co has on warming our atmosphere. The biggest changes are behind us in terms of the solar cycle can't get much worse than the bottom of the curve. Your data proves my point. The trend will pick back up as it bottoms out Just as it has in the past.

Google Solar Cycle 24 and look at the graph...

Granted this has been the lowest activity we have seen that doesn't mean fear porn like crop failure as the op mentioned. I pointed out the last two years have been record breaking crop harvest. The two examples correlated being sun spots and crop production are unrelated.
 
#21 ·
My biggest worry during these solar conditions is radio propagation.
Since we have no idea, at this point, as to the solar activity trend in 2018, I'm unsure what you mean by "these."

High solar activity creates a greater amount of ionization in the ionosphere, which, in turn, allows greater radio propagation in the upper HF bands.

You may want to go to the WWV homepage as they give information on the K Index.
The K Index broadcast by WWV reflects the instability of the geomagnetic field at Boulder, Colorado, over the last three hours. Such frequent updates can indicate K Index trends. A decreasing K Index is good, especially for propagation paths at greater than 30° latitude. Some VHF operators like to see an increasing K Index, because aurora is possible at K Index values of 3 and greater. Such values also warn that conditions associated with degraded HF propagation were present in Boulder, Colorado. Note: the K Index is a Boulder measurement-it may not correlate well to conditions in other areas.
 
#23 · (Edited)
When you're speaking of the Solar Minimum chart, are you speaking of this?


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06...17-the-sun-is-slumping-and-headed-even-lower/

Since it appears that we are headed into an extended solar minimum, often referred to as a "Maunder Minimum", that, combined with other things could cause problems.
The other things being an increase in earthquakes and volcanism. Something that some scientists have been trying to proof. There may be some evidence for increases in those things during a minimum solar cycle, but I'm not sure if there is enough evidence yet.
However, since there have been several volcano eruptions in the past few weeks, and one notable one yesterday, the ejected dust and sulfur dioxide will cut down sunlight hitting the Earth.
That combined with decreased solar radiation from the Sun, COULD start causing problems. Especially IF the theory of increased earthquakes and volcanism is true, and more volcanoes start erupting. Though how big the problems and how soon they will start is another matter.
 
#24 ·
I would expect the increase in recent volcanic activity.

To affect sunlight levels far more than any anticipated solar activity or lack of same in the near future. The ash put up into the atmosphere can reduce sunlight levels significantly.

The accounts of recorded weather patterns following the eruption Of Krakatoa in the late nineteenth century are quite telling. Even more recently when Mount Pinatubo went up in the early nineties I think it was. There was a significant cooling effect worldwide felt for about a year due to all of the volcanic ash blocking out sunlight.
 
#26 ·
To affect sunlight levels far more than any anticipated solar activity or lack of same in the near future. The ash put up into the atmosphere can reduce sunlight levels significantly.

The accounts of recorded weather patterns following the eruption Of Krakatoa in the late nineteenth century are quite telling. Even more recently when Mount Pinatubo went up in the early nineties I think it was. There was a significant cooling effect worldwide felt for about a year due to all of the volcanic ash blocking out sunlight.
Mt. Mayon went off in the PI in January
Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane went off in January.
Indonesia's Mt. Sinabung is going off.

Evidently, there are a number of others either going off, going to go off, or may go off this year alone.

https://www.popsci.com/volcano-eruption-2018#page-3

I wonder what that will do to the "Weather/Climate" Forecasts.

I may be wrong, but I'm of the opinion that our "Seasons" have been moving further into the calendar for about the last 30-40 years.

One of the signs of that is that it seems that Wheat Harvest for "Winter Wheat" has moved back about two weeks from what it was when I was a kid.

I have no data to back that up, but am just throwing it out there.
 
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