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  #51  
Old 04-08-2020, 09:02 AM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YVK View Post
Your calculations are dumb. Learn the concepts of variable risks and uneven distributions.




Gates finances U-Dub in general and Chris Murray's lab specifically. The lab is funded very well and, besides Murray himself, has a lot of brilliant people who work on that and other models. Gates gets a first hand info on the stuff they come up with before it is published, if it is published at all. If someone was paying attention, their recent lowering of deaths brought the number down to their initial projections, which they elevated during a period of poor social distancing country wide.




It is being tracked and done. Get your popcorn, watch the curves.





Aren't we so brilliant here, Auto? Why do they even have epidemiologists at all?
Tell me, is epidemiology of COVID19 in Brooklyn same vs the entire NYC metro? Vs entire NYS? How about within Brooklyn, is it the same between population of Chinatown vs Orthodox Jews? Is Sun City, AZ the same as Sun Valley, ID and which one has one of the highest per capita rates in the country? Is the infection following the path of a seasonal viral illness or of a mass casualty incident, and what are the differences? What variables do you put in your model?

Reading some of these posts is like reading a 3Gun people tell a SOCOM team how to conduct an assault.

NOBODY knows what the end point is going to be. You know what epidemiologists themselves say about models? No model is correct, some models are useful. Stay in your homes, your community is one super-spreader event away from becoming a NYC or NOLA, and get behind the pros who are doing their best with a pathogen that has a word "novel" in its name.
Stop with the self-righteous attitude. No crap the models suck, most of us have been saying that when they came out with the ridiculous 1,000,000+ USA only dead estimation. LOL!

No one is popoing the epidemiology knowledge base and need for these people, but I do stand by my statement that one doesn't have to be one to make a good prediction concerning death rate. Cheese, if nothing else on this thread I think we have proven this.

You forget, I've been on chemo since 2007, I have a long history of questioning the medical establishment, and my doctors. And you know what - my doctors respect me much more for it...Cheese, if I have listened to every recommendation my doctors and the medical establishment studies made over the years I'd be missing a couple of body parts I have now, be on way more drugs, and on higher doses of the few drugs I am now taking (always question your doctors and the medical establishment!)...And even some of the things they don't say, or are very late to the party, like wear a mask - lol! You think!..Don't ever accept anything from a bureaucracy unless it passes a rigorous "common-sense" test. (Here is a gun analogy for you YVK, like when FBI says 9mm and 45 are ballistically equivalent, "SURE-it-is" :-)).

Anyway, your self-righteous attitude aside, I do truly believe you and everyone else on the CV9 front lines in the medical establishment are TRUE-Hero's! I pray for you guys often these days.
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Last edited by combat auto; 04-08-2020 at 11:06 AM.
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  #52  
Old 04-08-2020, 09:09 AM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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PS I am glad you set the record straight about B. Gates, that was a rabbit hole we didn't need to go down. I don't know his gun politics, but otherwise he is doing a lot of good for the world.
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Last edited by combat auto; 04-08-2020 at 09:12 AM.
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  #53  
Old 04-08-2020, 10:52 AM
JMB-1911A1 JMB-1911A1 is offline
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Over 2000 deaths in one day. 4x the worst day for flu and this is with states shut down and social distancing. Comparisons to the flu are laughable.
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  #54  
Old 04-08-2020, 12:37 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
Poly My Friend, I am going to nominate you as a consultant to POTUS' "Bring the economy back on line" task force. He said he was going to start one in here...
The White House already called, I had to decline the position. I have a scheduled vacation on the Dutch Royal Cruise ship, "Covid of the Carribean".

Quote:
Originally Posted by YVK View Post


Thank you for posting that YVK.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Anyone not seeing that or understanding that curve is just denying themselves the truth.
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  #55  
Old 04-08-2020, 12:59 PM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
The White House already called, I had to decline the position. I have a scheduled vacation on the Dutch Royal Cruise ship, "Covid of the Carribean".



Thank you for posting that YVK.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Anyone not seeing that or understanding that curve is just denying themselves the truth.
On the serious side, I would like to see a guy like Bill Gates on the Bring the economy back task force. He has the business/economic experience but also lots of exposure to the processes of managing pandemics. We need balance here....What do you think of this suggestion?

(I have no idea if he would take the job though).
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  #56  
Old 04-08-2020, 02:01 PM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
The White House already called, I had to decline the position. I have a scheduled vacation on the Dutch Royal Cruise ship, "Covid of the Carribean".



Thank you for posting that YVK.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Anyone not seeing that or understanding that curve is just denying themselves the truth.
While that chart is a good one, I'd like to see CV9 compared to the two medium size pandemics of my life time 1957 and 1968, both from Asia, and both printed ~100,000 death's (USA, estimates vary some for each)...I think it would be a much more instructive (and possibly more apples:apples) comparison (if) the data is available after all these years.
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Last edited by combat auto; 04-08-2020 at 02:26 PM.
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  #57  
Old 04-15-2020, 10:05 AM
JMB-1911A1 JMB-1911A1 is offline
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Death toll was 2,405 on Tuesday...

You have to have a valid plan. This isn't going to just go away.

Still no ventilators, PPE or test. Why?
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  #58  
Old 04-15-2020, 11:10 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
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Originally Posted by JMB-1911A1 View Post
Death toll was 2,405 on Tuesday...

You have to have a valid plan. This isn't going to just go away.

Still no ventilators, PPE or test. Why?
It's a vicious conspiracy perpetrated by the evil Donald Trump and the also evil Republicans. Joe Biden would have had thousands of ventilators ready and waiting. Just ask him. That is if he can remember what a ventilator is.
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  #59  
Old 04-15-2020, 11:16 AM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Over three thousand dead yesterday.

Definitely a non event, typical flu.
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  #60  
Old 04-15-2020, 11:28 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
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7500 people die every day in the US.

Last edited by bradsvette; 04-15-2020 at 11:57 AM.
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  #61  
Old 04-15-2020, 10:11 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Nothing to see here folks.

Just another run of the mill flu virus. The media is just pumping this thing all out of proportion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us...uzJ?li=BBnb7Kz
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  #62  
Old 04-15-2020, 11:14 PM
JMB-1911A1 JMB-1911A1 is offline
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Worst flu deaths was just over 500 in a day. That was with no social distancing and no shut downs. We're getting close to 5x that now.
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  #63  
Old 04-15-2020, 11:41 PM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is online now
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Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
Just another run of the mill flu virus. The media is just pumping this thing all out of proportion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us...uzJ?li=BBnb7Kz
We're pretty much on the same page.

Understood without a need for any kind of emoji. Even if a casual reader might totally "miss" what that same page is.

I'm slightly surprised that there's still opinions on the other end of the spectrum, but then again, when different, but related, topics of government intrusions, economic consequences, and applications of statistics, backgrounds, etc., are entered into the mix, the different perspectives make more sense.

I think most of us here are pretty aware of the economic devastation; few would opine otherwise. As one whose entire career was in the business world, and mostly international, there's no possible words to describe the depths of my concerns in that regard. Probably best to put on a classically stoic British face. Several weeks ago, I was more optimistic about the impact in the U.S.

And ... I've appreciated and probably learned from everyone's varied input.
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  #64  
Old 04-16-2020, 07:01 AM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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Some of you need to stop looking in the rear-view mirror. That said, I do acknowledge your skill duplicating the CNN Death-Ticker right here on the forum :-), but driving with your eyes full time on what is behind you will continue to distort your world view of things.

Focus on the forward looking parameters like new CV9 patients reporting to the hospital. They are way down, which means the death tolls will be way down as we go forward...

No it isn't the regular flue (although we don't have a precise definition of regular flue), but it isn't the Bubonic Plague, Yellow fever which hit Philly when Washington was Pres and Philly was the Capital (10% of the population in Philly died - that is the TOTAL population NOT just the number of cases with YF), and it isn't the 1918 Flue (killing some 650K in USA)...

What it likely is if we normalize for time and process is like the two other really bad Flues which came out of Asia in 1957 and 1968 in the life time of myself and other's here. (about 100K deaths USA each).

Not sure what the Doom-and-Gloomers among us are looking for as far as the other side crying-uncle, the author of the now famous "Clown" thread and his disciples ;-) were far, far, far, off - WAY-Wrong- with their estimates than anyone comparing CV9 to regular flue which takes some 30K to 60K lives each year. It is time for the Doom-and-Gloomer's to admit how wrong they have been.

Why were these panicked individuals so wrong? 1) Because they failed to study history and realize this flue event, as bad as it is, and as much as it is being over-bloated by the press, is not unique in history, far from it. They just decided to accept the worst case estimates of millions dead in the USA...2) They underestimated the American spirit of the common folk, the Hero's in the medical area on the front-lines, and the Leadership of our Great President to do what we needed to do to get CV9 under control.
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Ekeibolon - Jeff Cooper

Last edited by combat auto; 04-16-2020 at 07:09 AM.
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  #65  
Old 04-16-2020, 10:13 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Right!

Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
Some of you need to stop looking in the rear-view mirror. That said, I do acknowledge your skill duplicating the CNN Death-Ticker right here on the forum :-), but driving with your eyes full time on what is behind you will continue to distort your world view of things.

Focus on the forward looking parameters like new CV9 patients reporting to the hospital. They are way down, which means the death tolls will be way down as we go forward...

No it isn't the regular flue (although we don't have a precise definition of regular flue), but it isn't the Bubonic Plague, Yellow fever which hit Philly when Washington was Pres and Philly was the Capital (10% of the population in Philly died - that is the TOTAL population NOT just the number of cases with YF), and it isn't the 1918 Flue (killing some 650K in USA)...

What it likely is if we normalize for time and process is like the two other really bad Flues which came out of Asia in 1957 and 1968 in the life time of myself and other's here. (about 100K deaths USA each).

Not sure what the Doom-and-Gloomers among us are looking for as far as the other side crying-uncle, the author of the now famous "Clown" thread and his disciples ;-) were far, far, far, off - WAY-Wrong- with their estimates than anyone comparing CV9 to regular flue which takes some 30K to 60K lives each year. It is time for the Doom-and-Gloomer's to admit how wrong they have been.

Why were these panicked individuals so wrong? 1) Because they failed to study history and realize this flue event, as bad as it is, and as much as it is being over-bloated by the press, is not unique in history, far from it. They just decided to accept the worst case estimates of millions dead in the USA...2) They underestimated the American spirit of the common folk, the Hero's in the medical area on the front-lines, and the Leadership of our Great President to do what we needed to do to get CV9 under control.
Well it is probably moot at this point. No doubt Bill Gates will have this thing completely shut down any day now.
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  #66  
Old 04-16-2020, 10:52 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is offline
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I posted some interesting facts, figures and graphs on the "I'll say it" thread, Page 3.

I'd suggest y'all give it a read.
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  #67  
Old 04-18-2020, 12:04 AM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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No need to worry folks, Joe Biden has the solution:

https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/st...27127098957824

Quote:
"Um, you know, there's a, uh, during World War II, uh, you know, where Roosevelt came up with a thing, uh, that, uh, you know, was totally different than a- than the- it's called, he called it, the, you know, the World War II, he had the war- the the War Production Board."
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  #68  
Old 04-18-2020, 06:29 AM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is online now
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
No need to worry folks, Joe Biden has the solution:

https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/st...27127098957824
Heard the replay this morning, he’s pitifully scary...
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  #69  
Old 04-18-2020, 06:53 AM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is online now
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Bad news...Despite the narrative starting to change as Ive said in other posts of late, the latest estimate for the Northeast is that the self quarantine order will remain in effect until June/July. The patient demographic varies alot from county to county, town to town. But the numbers of favorable outcomes are sadly not that good and that might be sugar coating it. The announcements of curves flattening/ plateaued imho are untrue. Co morbidities like obesity and Diabetes are significant. Its unclear, how other regions and states will be impacted, and it could vary. In my neck of the woods for work, its bad, in comparison to where i live. We’re not there yet and doesn’t seem close either based on personal conversations despite what’s being disseminated by the hospital system, news and politicians.

Last edited by Plantar5; 04-19-2020 at 06:09 AM.
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  #70  
Old 04-18-2020, 07:05 AM
UncleEd UncleEd is offline
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All the statistics stated here are great.

Please forward them to the doctors and nurses,
of whom quite a few have died from the virus
while handling heavy patient numbers in the major
city hospitals.

Also forward the statistics to the sailors cooped
up in tight quarters aboard warships; put the
TR first on the list.

And if you have any loved ones in retirement/nursing
homes, please make sure they get a copy of the
statistics. But do it quickly. Seems like the death
rate has rapidly increased in those homes.
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  #71  
Old 04-18-2020, 07:23 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
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Originally Posted by NonHyphenAmerican View Post
I posted some interesting facts, figures and graphs on the "I'll say it" thread, Page 3.

I'd suggest y'all give it a read.
It seems that many here on the 1911 Forum don't want to read those facts and figures. They want to maintain the frenzy. They want the various, press generated, models and predictions to substantiate their fears. No matter that 7500 AMERICANS DIE EVERY DAY of something. No matter that 153,000 people of the earth die every day from something.

Of course the hospital workers who are immersed in it are going to validate the fact that many are dying. They're in the trenches. Just like the only people who really understand how tough combat is are the people who have been there and done it. Maybe the fact that the world population has grown exponentially in the last 100 years might have something to do with more people dying now than 25, 50, or 100 years ago. What will really chap their butts is that, according to the Stanford study, the real percentage of deaths is equivalent to the that of the common cold.
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  #72  
Old 04-18-2020, 08:26 AM
YVK YVK is offline
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Originally Posted by bradsvette View Post
No matter that 7500 AMERICANS DIE EVERY DAY of something.


What will really chap their butts is that, according to the Stanford study, the real percentage of deaths is equivalent to the that of the common cold.
For the last week or so, the daily number of Americans dying from COVID19 was 2000-2500. Thursday it was reported at close to 4600. Do your math what percentage increase to all-cause daily mortality that is. To me it looks like 25%-60% increase. I can guarantee you that a sustained and publicly known acute increase in all-cause of mortality of that magnitude from a single infectious pathogen would grind the economy to a much worse halt than gubt orders. Our only hope that those numbers are not sustained for long.



Stanford study indeed suggested 0.12-0.20% case fatality rate. It also showed that population has no immunity to this virus as over 95% of people didn't have antibodies. Again, do your math and see what loss of life you can expect, with that 0.12% fatality rate, if virus were to capture just half of population.
Fatality rates are useless without knowing how many people the pathogen can affect. Stanford study suggests pretty much entire country can, until we get a vaccine. Guess how spread can be prevented until the vaccine is available.
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Last edited by YVK; 04-18-2020 at 08:29 AM.
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  #73  
Old 04-18-2020, 08:40 AM
JMB-1911A1 JMB-1911A1 is offline
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I don't watch the left or right news...just watch the numbers.
The economy is doomed until COVID is gone, but getting rid of it doesn't seem important to many, sine they aren't dead yet.
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  #74  
Old 04-18-2020, 08:54 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
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Hi YVK. You've got some blistering statistics. Thanks for being civil, reasonable, and professional. I realize that the virus is spreading. My point is that death is common, no matter what the cause. We all die. We all have to die of something. The study predicted a mortality rate from Covid 19 of 1/10th of one percent, just like the common cold. I'm pretty sure I read that. That's why he posted it in the thread "I'll Say It," meaning I'll say that it's not as bad as everyone thinks. Meaning it's a flu virus.

Influenza has been thinning the heard in one form or another throughout recorded history. It's part of life. Nobody gets out alive. Car accidents kill 50,00 Americans a year, but we still drive. We wear seatbelts and have airbags, but we still drive. The Gov't hasn't said to park all cars and not drive. I think this Covid-19 reaction (to a flu virus) is a huge overreaction. I get that it's serious. I get that people are concerned. But the worldwide press has created a monster out of a flu virus. The cure, destroying the economy and taking people's jobs, is worse than the virus. People are still going to die every day. 7500 Americans die every day.

My heart goes out to those who have lost people to this virus. My heart also goes out to those who lost sons in Afghanistan, to those who lost loved ones in car accidents, to those lost to Cancer and heart disease. We didn't shut down America for those tragedies. We pressed on. That's what we need to do here, in my opinion.
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  #75  
Old 04-18-2020, 09:12 AM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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Some Imbecile anchor on CNN this morning was pushing the notion of what a great consolation of CV9 is that smog and what not is down. And her guest (some Green-type-guy) pushed it even further suggesting we could adapt the stay at home lifestyle permanently to save the planet. His claim being more people die of polluted air than CV9.

This is the trouble with the Green-Movement, off the wall suggestions, stupidity, and usually, especially with many of the most famous speakers of the Green Movement - hypocrites.

Lets see if the anchor is willing to give up her SUV and her Husbands SUV. Two sets of rules of course for her, the in-crowd, and everyone else (just like the Lefty leadership concerning their gun rights vs ours).

I am all for saving the planet, not only on a personal level but also on a Spiritual-Level, anyone who has ever read the Bible knows it is our responsibility to preserve "mother-earth". And I put my money and action's where my mouth is, I donate to the World Wildlife Fund at the Partner-level, and you guys would faint if I told you how few miles I dive a year - mostly to Doctors and the Range :-).

But the Waco-hypocrites like those found on CNN are doing the "Save the Planet" movement a great disservice!
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Last edited by combat auto; 04-18-2020 at 09:17 AM.
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