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  #1  
Old 04-04-2020, 05:30 PM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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COVID19 stats

Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate. If we consider that there are at least another 1.2 million unreported cases for various reasons...that is a 3% death rate. If we use the 2,400,000 world wide cases in a population of 7 billion, we get a miniscule fraction of less than 1 percent of the global population infections and death rate. Yes every death is sad to someone. And the economic damage done to the world is greater than the loss of life.

NY State stats: as of right now...and I rounded the numbers up quite generously.
125,000 cases...3500 deaths. That's 3% deaths. Obviously being sick isn't "dying"...and that is just reported cases.
New York State population 19,850,000. Known infection rate is 6/10ths of 1 percent. Deaths as a % population 2/100ths of 1%.

The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down.
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  #2  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:38 PM
win3030 win3030 is offline
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Get in your B Sedan and "head for ze hills"!
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  #3  
Old 04-04-2020, 10:49 PM
JMB-1911A1 JMB-1911A1 is offline
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Deaths: 8,454 as of this post
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  #4  
Old 04-05-2020, 05:42 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Trump spoke a lot about this yesterday, about bringing the economy back on line. Of course he will be called a baby killer and all that by CNN and MSNBC. And that truly Evil person Nancy P. is starting another witch hunt over how POTUS handled the Federal response so far. But unfortunately, what else would we expect from them.

The economy has to come back on line, it can't sustain itself like this unless we want to convert it from a Capitalist Society with plenty of Socialism in it already, to a much more Socialism society with some Capitalism. And the longer the economy is shut down, this will also raise the risk dramatically of Government run health-care...I don't want any part of this, we already have too much Socialism in this country (80% of the tax code or so falls under the socialism umbrella).

POTUS mentioned starting another task-force to address specifically, how to bring the economy back on line...With Fauci and that very Intelligent Blond right now the 2 most powerful people in this country, I say, "Respectfully, WTH are you waiting for President Trump." And I do say it very respectfully as you guys know how much I love the man, it is a true Godsend that we have POTUS at the helm rather then a Democrat...And as much as Fauci and team are adding a lot of value, they are one dimensional - public health. That isn't enough, we have to include the Economic as well as other dimensions in all this...Get the "Bring back the Economy" Task Force going Mr. President.

Likely the result will be a mix of bringing people back to work where we can mixed with the new social distancing rules. In business, this will often require using masks and gloves (if a person can't telecommute). So what, lets get to it!!!
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Last edited by combat auto; 04-05-2020 at 05:49 AM.
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  #5  
Old 04-05-2020, 06:07 AM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is online now
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Reports and stats from Italy seems to show they have plateaued which should put US (and this is a guess) another 2 weeks out from a plateau here hopefully.
We’re 2/3 into this numbers and curve watching so i dont see any big changes for the better coming before that 4/30 mark.

Happy Palm Sunday everyone...
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  #6  
Old 04-05-2020, 08:20 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

Pay attention to the bar graph and supporting table labled 'date of illness onset'. This articilates when people first contracted this illness... bear in mind that the last 6 or 7 numbers on the far right WILL go up in the next week.

What this graphic illustrates is patterns, and it can be used to predict where we're going...

Cumulative case counts and fatalities tell you nothing of predictive value- they can only go up until this is over.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:54 AM
M-Peltier M-Peltier is offline
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The only thing those charts show is the prevalence of testing and their predictable positive tests. Prior to March there was almost no testing for COVID-19, which they didn't even have a name for. Once testing started and test kits became available, it is only reasonable to assume the numbers would climb. The climb will continue as more people are tested, and will plateau once the majority of sick people are tested. testing will eventually catch up with itself and flatten then gradually go down. Its my opinion this bug has been with us longer than we know, considering how honest the Chinese government is.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:58 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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It shows far more than that- IF you can take the raw data and do any kind of analysis....
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  #9  
Old 04-05-2020, 09:19 AM
scubadad scubadad is offline
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Originally Posted by M-Peltier View Post
The only thing those charts show is the prevalence of testing and their predictable positive tests. Prior to March there was almost no testing for COVID-19, which they didn't even have a name for. Once testing started and test kits became available, it is only reasonable to assume the numbers would climb. The climb will continue as more people are tested, and will plateau once the majority of sick people are tested. testing will eventually catch up with itself and flatten then gradually go down. Its my opinion this bug has been with us longer than we know, considering how honest the Chinese government is.
There was a nasty run of flu like cases back in december. I had it and felt like total crap for 3 days. Fever, chills, body ache. God only knows what it was.

Only speculating but I work in Oxford OH where there is a large asian student population. Many went home during Thanksgiving break and then a few weeks later I'm down for the count.
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  #10  
Old 04-05-2020, 09:47 AM
PEF PEF is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnireland View Post
Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate. If we consider that there are at least another 1.2 million unreported cases for various reasons...that is a 3% death rate. If we use the 2,400,000 world wide cases in a population of 7 billion, we get a miniscule fraction of less than 1 percent of the global population infections and death rate. Yes every death is sad to someone. And the economic damage done to the world is greater than the loss of life.

NY State stats: as of right now...and I rounded the numbers up quite generously.
125,000 cases...3500 deaths. That's 3% deaths. Obviously being sick isn't "dying"...and that is just reported cases.
New York State population 19,850,000. Known infection rate is 6/10ths of 1 percent. Deaths as a % population 2/100ths of 1%.

The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down.
Don't look at the death rate. Look at the deaths, and realize how quickly our ability to deal with the sick and the dead would have been overrun.

1331 died yesterday, and total deaths are at 8452 as of yesterday. Right now we as a nation are on track for about 94k deaths, with 87k in the next three months (albeit there are bands of uncertainty ranging from 40k to 178k.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Under normal circumstances, the average deaths per day in the US from April - June is about 7,500:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

So with social distancing guidelines in place, the corona virus will add about 1,000 deaths per day over the next three months on average, for an increase of 13%.

Assuming the low end of 1.6M deaths if we "rode it out," and assuming a similar distribution (it would probably be steeper), over the same three month period, the additional deaths would be about 17,150 per day, for a 328% increase in the average daily death rate.


The deaths of US citizens in a three month period if we rode it out, and if the models are accurate, would exceed the deaths of all US soldiers killed in all wars (1.1M) by almost 50%.

Assume even 1.6M is inflated. Assume it's 800k. That's still more bodies than when we can properly dispose of. Funeral homes are not businesses that scale. What do you think would happen to our society if there were images of over run hospitals and mass cremations in say, two weeks from now?

Politically, I think the states and feds have to at least attempt to make a hard push to stop this spread. But I think May 1 is about as far as we can go. I can't imagine doing to this until June or July. I think come May 1 we need say "We gave it our best shot, but we need to get back to work. Practice social distancing as best you can."

If this stand down until May 1 works, great; if not, the people are at least being girded for what might come.
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  #11  
Old 04-05-2020, 10:06 AM
M-Peltier M-Peltier is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
It shows far more than that- IF you can take the raw data and do any kind of analysis....
IF the data is accurate, Which it is not.

IF the data was complete, which it is not.

The CDC data will be argued to be the best data point so far. But it is woefully inaccurate. Its already been proven that the majority of people, to the tune of millions have had C19, or currently have it and show no symptoms. And never tested. And even though testing is becoming more widespread it is in most areas very selective.

Like all statistics, it will be used by some to further one opinion (or agenda) or another.

The patterns the chart(s) show so far are just like any other pandemic in modern times. Nothing more, nothing less.....If you can take the raw data and do any kind of analysis......

The only real value of those charts is to perpetuate the fear and panic many are pushing on society.
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  #12  
Old 04-05-2020, 10:17 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by M-Peltier View Post
IF the data is accurate, Which it is not.

IF the data was complete, which it is not.

It is the data available. No, its not perfect. It is simplywhat we hae.

The CDC data will be argued to be the best data point so far. But it is woefully inaccurate. Its already been proven that the majority of people, to the tune of millions have had C19, or currently have it and show no symptoms. And never tested. And even though testing is becoming more widespread it is in most areas very selective.

Source this claim- that the "majority" of people have or currently have this.
And a "majority" of peoplein the US is not "millions", its its over 175 million.


Like all statistics, it will be used by some to further one opinion (or agenda) or another.

The patterns the chart(s) show so far are just like any other pandemic in modern times. Nothing more, nothing less.....If you can take the raw data and do any kind of analysis......

The only real value of those charts is to perpetuate the fear and panic many are pushing on society.
I'd suggest the chart I referenced does the exact opposite- it indicates a peak date of 16 MAR, some ups and downs, and at the very least a platue if not a decline...

I also agree that there are far more undiagnosed, asymptomatic cases than there are confirmed. I've been saying that for 2 weeks or more... however, Ive seen no actual data that supports quantifying it in a specific manner....
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:26 AM
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As of about three hours ago, the stats for St. Louis city/county and state are:
...................Confirmed......Deaths......Ratio
STL.................216................1.......... ..0.4%
State............2,291..............24............ 1.0%

Ratio is the percentage of deaths compared to confirmed cases.

Some points to make:
1. Death ratio is very close to what it is for a normal flu season, which is about 0.1%.
2. "Confirmed cases" is only a small subset of total cases, since most people have mild symptoms if any, and don't go to a doctor or ER. So the actual death ratio is probably 1/3 or less of the percentages shown.
3. People who die from this would probably die from the flu as well--people with pre-existing medical conditions that weaken their immune systems. Some prescription medications will do that BTW.
4. The best thing you can do for yourself is develop a strong immune system, and ingest antiviral foods and supplements such as zinc, vitamin C, D, and tonic water (with quinine). And try to either wean yourself off drugs that weaken the immune system, or substitute in (gradually) some natural remedies. This type of info is gradually coming out, so do some research on your own. Of course these measures are also very helpful for the regular flu season. All under a doctor's supervision of course.

Conclusion: all this hype and panic, largely induced by the media, is mostly Bravo Sierra.
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:32 AM
M-Peltier M-Peltier is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
I'd suggest the chart I referenced does the exact opposite- it indicates a peak date of 16 MAR, some ups and downs, and at the very least a platue if not a decline...

I also agree that there are far more undiagnosed, asymptomatic cases than there are confirmed. I've been saying that for 2 weeks or more... however, Ive seen no actual data that supports quantifying it in a specific manner....
I meant millions world wide, though it could be that in the US, who knows, but it is many more than has been tested as you said. Because testing always starts slow and takes time to be initiated in any meaningful quantity, supporting test data will be pretty much non existent.

The plateau is naturally going to be there at some point. Thats due to testing as much as it is to the virus running its course, witch is no different than any other virus. And it will decline, once enough test data exists to show this. Just like any other pandemic in the recent past.

I think the only thing we really disagree on is the actual usefulness of the chart(s) by the CDC. They really don't show us anything new.
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Old 04-05-2020, 04:10 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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I noticed Bill Gates interview today on fox. He didn't mention the crazy estimates in the millions of deaths some models have been predicted...

He acknowledged that although this is a very bad "nightmare" virus, it isn't "the big one".

He said the estimate which the CDC has adapted now 100,00 to 200,000 is possible, but felt that due to the mitigation we are doing now we should actually come in (I quote) "well short" below 100,000.

Interesting I've been saying more or less the same thing on all accounts for several weeks now on the forum and I don't even have "ONE" billion dollars in net-wort, nor do I donate millions of dollars to research pandemics like he does. :-) LOL. I looked at past pandemics over the centuries and especially the death totals in the USA, applied some common sense, and came to a rational conclusion.

I am glad Bill hasn't joined the fear-mongers out there.
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Old 04-05-2020, 04:17 PM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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Originally Posted by scubadad View Post
There was a nasty run of flu like cases back in december. I had it and felt like total crap for 3 days. Fever, chills, body ache. God only knows what it was.

Only speculating but I work in Oxford OH where there is a large asian student population. Many went home during Thanksgiving break and then a few weeks later I'm down for the count.
I'm a Miami grad. In the late 70's, we had like.....2 Asians in all of Oxford. I think 1 of them went to Miami.

Fast forward 40 yrs.....I was back on campus last fall for the first time while speaking at a conference. I was shocked. I thought I was in Shanghai.
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Old 04-05-2020, 05:04 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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I meant millions world wide, though it could be that in the US, who knows, but it is many more than has been tested as you said. Because testing always starts slow and takes time to be initiated in any meaningful quantity, supporting test data will be pretty much non existent.

The plateau is naturally going to be there at some point. Thats due to testing as much as it is to the virus running its course, witch is no different than any other virus. And it will decline, once enough test data exists to show this. Just like any other pandemic in the recent past.

I think the only thing we really disagree on is the actual usefulness of the chart(s) by the CDC. They really don't show us anything new.
Sounds like we're in the same realm of raw numbers- however, "millions" in any contact is not a "majority"....

Testing only quantities (partially) how the virus runs its course.... the critical takeaway is that it will, and IS, running its course- o
no different than any other viral pandemic in history.
On the plus side, we can treat and mitigate the effects of viral infection, to reduce mortality, much better than 100 years ago. It's not about "curing" the disease- we can't cure viruses. We can mitigate symptoms to increase survival, nothing more.
On tbe negative side, this has spread rapidly due to the "world society", the easy of travel. 100 years ago, it took days to cross the Atlantic, not a few hours. Days or weeks to travel from NY to CA, not hours... the ease of travel IS a significant factor in this pandemic.

As for the CDC data, the set I reference does have use- it shows where we uave been, as well as where we seem to be going. Is it rock solid, absolute? Nope. It is indicative of a pattern though.
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:27 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Bill Gates does not know how many are going to be bagged by this.

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Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
I noticed Bill Gates interview today on fox. He didn't mention the crazy estimates in the millions of deaths some models have been predicted...

He acknowledged that although this is a very bad "nightmare" virus, it isn't "the big one".

He said the estimate which the CDC has adapted now 100,00 to 200,000 is possible, but felt that due to the mitigation we are doing now we should actually come in (I quote) "well short" below 100,000.

Interesting I've been saying more or less the same thing on all accounts for several weeks now on the forum and I don't even have "ONE" billion dollars in net-wort, nor do I donate millions of dollars to research pandemics like he does. :-) LOL. I looked at past pandemics over the centuries and especially the death totals in the USA, applied some common sense, and came to a rational conclusion.

I am glad Bill hasn't joined the fear-mongers out there.
Any more than anyone else. Nobody knows what the final figure will be. Can educated people make educatted guesses about it? Sure they can, but they do not know what it will be.
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:33 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is offline
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A friend of mine I've known for a couple of decades is an ID Doctor.

When he was interviewed locally, he gave his opinion of a Best Case Scenario and a Worst Case Scenario.

I SAW the interview, taped it on the DVR because I wanted to show it later to my wife.

Miraculously, all of the local media, including the original station quit referencing the "Best Case Scenario".

It's as if he never uttered the words;

His "Worst Case Scenario" however is constantly being reference as to why we're all doomed.

When it comes to this "Threat"....

There has to be a Balance struck.

COVID-19 is a threat.

Mass Unemployment is a threat.

Excessive Authoritarian Ctrl-Left Government Policies are a threat.


All three of these can exist at the same time and Honoring the Threat of One is not inconsistent with Honoring the threat of the others.

Basically, in my opinion, it'll be the Private Sector that saves the day and provides what's needed.

The Public Sector needs to help facilitate the Private Sector being able to solve issues such as providing needed materials and supplies and the logistics to get them where needed.

Employment may shift, and some may need to find different employment for a time.

And this is not a time for "Them The Government" to become Almighty and All Powerful.
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:01 AM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Amen to this!

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Originally Posted by NonHyphenAmerican View Post
Excessive Authoritarian Ctrl-Left Government Policies are a threat
Basically, in my opinion, it'll be the Private Sector that saves the day and provides what's needed.

The Public Sector needs to help facilitate the Private Sector being able to solve issues such as providing needed materials and supplies and the logistics to get them where needed.

Employment may shift, and some may need to find different employment for a time.

And this is not a time for "Them The Government" to become Almighty and All Powerful.
It appears that we will be testing the mettle so to speak. Of the American public going forward. I just hope that we come out of this stronger as a culture. Surely more scrutiny and accountability of public policy is in order. To see this actually happen going forward is not something that I would bet on seeing. But stranger things have happened.
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:13 AM
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:16 AM
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Wth?

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Any more than anyone else. Nobody knows what the final figure will be. Can educated people make educated guesses about it? Sure they can, but they do not know what it will be.
Bill Gates is one of the most brilliant men on the planet when it comes to the science of using, managing, and getting the most value from, information. Few men of technology have changed more lives and society as a whole then he. (BTW, I have no idea what his politics are and don't care for this discussion). He has been involved in the study of pandemics for some time and donates huge amounts of money to studying and managing pandemics.

And he ain't no bureaucrat and doesn't have dogma's of a bureaucrat, and that is another reason besides what I mentioned above, why we can get a realistic prediction from him...

His opinion matters much more to me than the fear-mongers in the CDC, the Lefty-media, etc.

Not sure where you are going with your opinion of doom and gloom my friend (or exactly what you are basing them on), but I do think you are going to be very disappointed about your predictions as we start to come out of this. Still, I know you will be happy about the absolute number of lives we did not loose.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:52 AM
M-Peltier M-Peltier is offline
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Sounds like we're in the same realm of raw numbers- however, "millions" in any contact is not a "majority"....
Sometimes a couple words means a lot to the context of a conversation. I sometimes am not very good at getting every word from my mind to the keyboard. I was referring to the numbers of people who have had or have C19 and NOT been tested as being a majority and in the millions compared to those tested. I was not referring to the entire population. Only those tested and have it vs. those NOT tested and have/had it.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:31 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Sometimes a couple words means a lot to the context of a conversation. I sometimes am not very good at getting every word from my mind to the keyboard. I was referring to the numbers of people who have had or have C19 and NOT been tested as being a majority and in the millions compared to those tested. I was not referring to the entire population. Only those tested and have it vs. those NOT tested and have/had it.
Tracking.... this makes sense.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:41 AM
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The seasonal flu this year, measured from Jan 2 to April 2, has killed over twice as many people worldwide as compared to what Covid19 has killed. Covid 19 is nothing more than another flu virus. They're all different, they mutate constantly, and they're all dangerous, mostly to the very infirm and very old.

The biggest difference is that this virus has been the biggest boon to the ratings of TV news since 911. The irresponsible, self serving press (frustrated actors themselves) feeds this monster and continues to ram it down our throats. The same botoxed Doctors who've never met a camera they didn't love, happily pontificate the same no-information message every day and get paid handsomely for it. The self-serving, cowardly, and irresponsible press will magnify and perpetuate this story until we finally say "no more." They're destroying the economy by promoting and magnifying the danger to create as much fear as possible, and doing everything in their power to prevent President Trump from being re-elected. Their motto is now and has always been "Never let a crisis go to waste."

One add on... I don't mean to sound callous or judgmental. We all react and respond to what we hear and read. What's right and wrong is a little bit different for everyone. And we all have opinions. Finally, if we have someone in our family sick with the virus, then it becomes a much more meaningful, important and scary situation. My prayers to those who are facing it directly.

Last edited by bradsvette; 04-06-2020 at 10:33 AM.
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