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  #276  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:38 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by peacebutready View Post
I don't know about this. The death rate for covid-19 is around 3.4% of those who get it. Higher than 3.4% for the elderly, lower than 3.4% for young people. And it's more contagious.

Am I right or wrong here? Anyone?
Lets see.... in a vaccinated population, we STILL have had 390,000 confirmed (based on hospitalization and known reporting) cases of flu in the US this season, and about 25000 deaths. The CDC estimates for flu this season 38 million cases....however, since we only use "confirmed" cases around here to calculate mortality, the death rate is 6.4% from flu this year...

The SARS CoV-2 CoV-2 mortality rate in the US is about 1.5%- using the same poor technique. There are about 65k confirmed cases and 944 fatalities the US- a small fraction of 390,000 and 25000 respectively....

So which do you thing has greater mobility and morbidity?
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams

Last edited by wccountryboy; 03-26-2020 at 05:40 PM.
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  #277  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:41 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by peacebutready View Post
I don't know about this. The death rate for covid-19 is around 3.4% of those who get it. Higher than 3.4% for the elderly, lower than 3.4% for young people. And it's more contagious.

Am I right or wrong here? Anyone?
Lets see.... in a vaccinated population, we STILL have had 390,000 confirmed (based on hospitalization and known reporting) cases of flu in the US this season, and about 25000 deaths. The CDC estimates for flu this season 38 million cases....however, since we only use "confirmed" cases around here to calculate mortality, the death rate is 6.4% from flu this year...

The SARS CoV-2 CoV-2 mortality rate in the US is about 1.%- using the same poor technique. There are about 65k confirmed cases and 944 fatalities the US- a small fraction of 390,000 and 25000 respectively....

So which do you thing has greater mobility and morbidity?
Oh no, the facts are back. Lol!
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  #278  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:05 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by Striker2237 View Post
Oh no, the facts are back. Lol!
The only way that SARS CoV-2 is worse that flu, mortality, wise, is if we use a completely different methodology to massage the numbers to produce a desired result... there's no math that, given what we know, show it to be more mobile that flu...
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #279  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:18 PM
peacebutready peacebutready is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Lets see.... in a vaccinated population, we STILL have had 390,000 confirmed (based on hospitalization and known reporting) cases of flu in the US this season, and about 25000 deaths. The CDC estimates for flu this season 38 million cases....however, since we only use "confirmed" cases around here to calculate mortality, the death rate is 6.4% from flu this year...

The SARS CoV-2 CoV-2 mortality rate in the US is about 1.5%- using the same poor technique. There are about 65k confirmed cases and 944 fatalities the US- a small fraction of 390,000 and 25000 respectively....

So which do you thing has greater mobility and morbidity?
If there was/is in reality 38 million cases of the flu and 25k deaths, about .6 of a percent died.

Perhaps in reality there are more than 65K people who have the specific corona virus that causes covid-19, and there have been more than 944 deaths attributable to covid-19. Maybe we're being kept in the dark.

In New York City, the number of claimed deaths due to covid are small compared to the overall amount of deaths due to various causes in the same period. Despite this, they are saying they are running out of places to put the bodies. This doesn't make sense.
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  #280  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:30 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by peacebutready View Post
If there was/is in reality 38 million cases of the flu and 25k deaths, about .6 of a percent died.

Perhaps in reality there are more than 65K people who have the specific corona virus that causes covid-19, and there have been more than 944 deaths attributable to covid-19. Maybe we're being kept in the dark.

In New York City, the number of claimed deaths due to covid are small compared to the overall amount of deaths due to various causes in the same period. Despite this, they are saying they are running out of places to put the bodies. This doesn't make sense.
You're correct on the numbers- however, its frowned upon here to use math that makes some sense....
There are VASTLY more SARS CoV-2 cases in reality than the numbers being thrown about suggest. Both CDC and WHO state that only 15% of cases will develop "severe" symptoms that someone's may actually see their doctors for, or that will require treatment . The rest are asymptomatic or mild enough to self treat. Testing, while increasing, is still significantly limited. The spike in "confirmed" cases came with increases testing... The actual number of cases is significantly under-accounted for, by at least a factor of 4, problably closer to 10.

I applied the same methodology to both viruses, to create a legitimate, apples to apples comparison... the process is sound.

You can draw your own conclusions....
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #281  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:36 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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Yesterday I said we'd check the numbers today. John's Hopkins just quoted an increase to 82,400 cases and 1170 dead in the US. Surpassing China.

NO, the US has NOT peaked. That was hooey.
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  #282  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:44 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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You're not using the right numbers to track momentum or trends. ALL of those new numbers were exposed 2+ weeks ago.... the peak occurs long before the caseload and fatalities top out.
See what CDC is publishing about illness onset times.... tells a different story.
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #283  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:46 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Striker2237 View Post
Oh no, the facts are back. Lol!
The only way that SARS CoV-2 is worse that flu, mortality, wise, is if we use a completely different methodology to massage the numbers to produce a desired result... there's no math that, given what we know, show it to be more mobile that flu...
I'm very very well aware hence why I've been on the same boat as you this entire time. Others here for some reason can't see it and the flat out impossible claims being made
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  #284  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:30 PM
anonymouscuban anonymouscuban is online now
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This was my lockdown this morning. All the public ranges are closed. I belong to a club with a private range. Always a blessing but its priceless right now.
https://youtu.be/WGGzu2qPxvk

Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk
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  #285  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:16 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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YES, it's the SAME as regular flu. And that's why Ford & Tesla have been tasked with mass-producing ventilators & masks.

Same as they do with the flu.

.................oh wait. that's not normal every flu season? Hmmmmmm.
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  #286  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:24 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
YES, it's the SAME as regular flu. And that's why Ford & Tesla have been tasked with mass-producing ventilators & masks.

Same as they do with the flu.

.................oh wait. that's not normal every flu season? Hmmmmmm.
Yes it is just like the flu, that is why 41 doctors and nurses died in Italy treating the sick. We already had a doctor locally contract covid19 and die.

Yup every year health workers drop like flies treating flu patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-crisis-began
Quote:
Forty-one health workers in Italy have died from coronavirus since the outbreak there began, as medics work relentlessly to try to turn the tide in Europeís worst-affected country.
You are wasting your efforts with the "no worse than the flu" crowd. You won't convince them.
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  #287  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:32 PM
Sailormilan2 Sailormilan2 is online now
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Its been reported that 15-25% of those that "recover" have reported some loss of lung function. So, while one may not die, one may permanently lose some lung function. The amount may vary from person to person, and it is too soon to say what the really long term effects may be.
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  #288  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:48 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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PolymerMan. I know. But I still try. Guess I'm like Don Quixote.
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  #289  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:02 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is offline
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Ladies and Gentlemen,

I submit a couple of different sources that might be interesting to keep in mind.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...Av_R5.facebook

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...N7JqwJBV1Qd5Kk
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I leave this rule for others when I'm dead, Be always sure you're right ó THEN GO AHEAD! Davy Crockett
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  #290  
Old 03-27-2020, 03:48 AM
peacebutready peacebutready is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailormilan2 View Post
Its been reported that 15-25% of those that "recover" have reported some loss of lung function. So, while one may not die, one may permanently lose some lung function. The amount may vary from person to person, and it is too soon to say what the really long term effects may be.
I guess that 15-25% were very sick but recovered. I mention that because some only get mild symptoms, if I'm not mistaken.

Maybe those that experienced loss of lung function aren't completely recovered and just need some time. It would be messed up if those that recovered did so with an irreversible injury.
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  #291  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:06 AM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Sounds like itís time for a class action suit against Red China for their Hunan Flu.
I know you canít, but there are tons that are trying.
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  #292  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:09 AM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
Yesterday I said we'd check the numbers today. John's Hopkins just quoted an increase to 82,400 cases and 1170 dead in the US. Surpassing China.

NO, the US has NOT peaked. That was hooey.
Thatís because of all of the inmates/prisoners/detainees/caged birds that have been let loose with the virus 🦠

OK, Iíll stop...........
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  #293  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:06 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
YES, it's the SAME as regular flu. And that's why Ford & Tesla have been tasked with mass-producing ventilators & masks.

Same as they do with the flu.

.................oh wait. that's not normal every flu season? Hmmmmmm.
Whats "normal" every flu season is 20-40k dead. Every year. The reason nobody panics is that its the accepted reality. It happens every year, so people are accustom to it...

Simple fact: there are at least 4x more confirmed cases of the flu, and 25x more deaths in the US. This is undeniable.

Since all you care about is "confirmed " cases and mortality- you've refused to consider any information other than these 2 numbers- I've provided what matters to you, straight from CDC. Unless, of course, you're suggesting that CDC is putting out false information about the flu....?
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #294  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:07 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Poly and Mag, don't BS us, while I agree it is worse then regular seasonal flue (right now) as far as death rate, most of us are a lot closer then you two predicting today's reality (like MANY orders of magnitude closer then the predictions coming from you 2)...And as the therapeutics for CV come on line we will be even "more" closer to predicting tomorrow's reality as the death-rate of CV likely converges with the death-rate of regular flue.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Poly was using a 12th Century death model to predict a result similar to Bubonic Plague in Europe. Some of the loons in the medical establishment were also predicting this outcome. And of course CNN and MSMBC continues to do anything they can to propagate the panic which has obviously "infected" you two as well as millions hording toilet paper.

Luckily, POTUS's medical proes, esp. that BRILLIANT-Blond Lady we see on the press-conferences every day is talking to these imbecilic models over the last several-days, which apparently, both of you have fallen-for. She has blown them out of the water because the assumptions going into the model are nonsensical in today's society.

She also mentions how these awful predictions can be so dangerous to our society. But that makes no difference to those in the press who would love to do America harm.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-27-2020 at 08:24 AM.
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  #295  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:11 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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As far as "most cases":

China: Can't make this comparison as China's data is questionable.

Italy: Yep we surpassed them a little now in total cases. But what the fake news leaves out is that as a % of the total population in each country, the US has an order of magnitude (actually more than an order of magnitude) LESS cases than Italy. That is a factor of 10 less (dived their % by 10 to get a swag). Of course the media and those who enjoy panicking our country don't mention this. Fake-News!
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"To be born free is an accident. To live free is a responsibility. To die free is an obligation."-Gen. Halley.
"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield." ĖUlysses
Ekeibolon - Jeff Cooper

Last edited by combat auto; 03-27-2020 at 08:17 AM.
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  #296  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:21 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NonHyphenAmerican View Post
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I submit a couple of different sources that might be interesting to keep in mind.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...Av_R5.facebook

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...N7JqwJBV1Qd5Kk
In shocked, utterly shocked! Weren't these concepts proposed here a week ago...?

I've posted it before, but its worth doing again:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

If you want information with predictive value, where this is going, take a good look at the data compiled under 'cases by illness onset'. This will indicate when people actually contracted the disease- not when they tested + for it. The trend developing is interesting....

Raw numbers and poor process- or even good process- only provides collated information, its still raw.
80k cases and 1k deaths or 1.5% mortality are just numbers, its just information. You have to use that grey matter between your ears to do some analysis, actually think about the information you have, process it, and form an opinion....
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I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
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  #297  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:40 AM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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At this point, Punxatawny Phil is more accurate than anything I've seen or read.
Where's Nostradamus when you need him???
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  #298  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:11 AM
Billf55 Billf55 is offline
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I've resisted entering this conversation...and while I could type a 2 page wall of text I don't think that will help either. Most of you know lots more than I do about 1911s - but I am a physician for more than 30 years and have been the Chief of Staff of an urban hospital.

let me just say this - many of you are WAY out over your skis as they say!

99% of my colleagues...and all the smart ones - do NOT put credence in the doomsday scenarios. The Flu absolutely kills huge numbers of people each year, and it's like "Ho, hum, the flu"

young people are MUCH more at risk of dying from MVA and overdose than Covid-19 and the elderly/sick are the ones who die of everything, all the time...but we don't register it as such in society, while in the hospital we are only too aware of this.

As far as number - all you have so far are datapoints...in an incomplete and evolving model...layered on speculation from other viral pathogens. Discussions of "Long-term lung damage" are WAY premature. We won't know for more than a year. Everyone who has ever smoked a cigarette, joint or cigar had "lung damage" - the question is - is it clinically significant???

So....be smart and be safe...but do NOT panic and try to resist sharing the "latest" scoop that appears in the media. Fauci and the others on the task force have a good handle on this...trust me, you do NOT know more than they do.
I've met Antony Fauci and he is smart and serious - I cannot believe he would falsify anything for political reasons. He is not infallible of course, and we are going to make medical mistakes dealing with this...but so far I think we are doing well all things considered.

now, back to your regularly scheduled program - teach me more about 1911s..

Bill
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  #299  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:14 AM
Billf55 Billf55 is offline
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One good thing about all this - maybe more people will get the flu vaccine going forward and more people will apply proper preventive actions all the time...which will lower flu deaths in the future.

one more thing - remember the flu season is NOT over, and many of these fatalities likely have the flu and Covid-19...I think this is likely the case in Italy, where they have a poor record on flu vaccine
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  #300  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:01 AM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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The key is TRAJECTORY ---------- where are we headed if we (the US) stay on our current course?

Well, let's see. on 5/23 I posted numbers on the US confirmed cases and deaths:

It was 32,000 cases and 471 dead. That was 4 days ago. And today it's:
86,000 cases, 1,301 dead.

Nearly TRIPLED in only 4 DAYS in BOTH categories.

I swear man, if you guys can't see the trajectory here you would think that a small fire in only one corner of your firework factory is "no big deal" ----------------------------------------- hey, it's only gotten the Sparklers so far............
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