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Virus outbreak

50K views 526 replies 81 participants last post by  cavelamb 
#1 ·
This is about the coronavirus NOT SOME STUPID ZOMBIE CRAP. Now that we got that out of the way.

I work in Oxford OH home to Miami U that has about 3k asian students. Two are currently in isolation pending test results from the cdc. While there is not chaos there is definatly some mild panic going on. Lots of mask wearing and a few in hazmat suits. I have seen this with my own eyes and the pictures online are real. 2 of my part timers are students and I have seen their personal cell phone pics as well.

The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic. Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents.

So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?
 
#157 ·
No matter how the virus plays out worldwide, I think this is an example of how little power governments of the world have to truly "protect" their citizens.

And that's a compelling reason -- by itself -- for 2A rights.

As each of us here well know.
 
#158 ·
Also called: 2019-nCov, 2019 Novel Coronavirus
OVERVIEW
SYMPTOMS
PREVENTION
TREATMENTS
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is characterized by mild symptoms including a runny nose, sore throat, cough, and fever. Illness can be more severe for some people and can lead to pneumonia or breathing difficulties.
More rarely, the disease can be fatal. Older people, and people with other medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease), may be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill.
People may experience:
runny nose
sore throat
cough
fever
difficulty breathing (severe cases)
Hardly the Bubonic Plague, it wouldn't appear folks aren't dropping dead in the streets. The panic very well could be worse than the virus. Pump the breaks and take a deep breath. The sky most likely isn't falling
 
#162 ·
I couldn't agree more but as I stated the panic and hysteria is quite likely more dangerous than the virus itself. I'm not suggesting that individuals should not take prudent precautions but personally it looks to be a bit overblown. Every year I get a flu shot, many say they are worthless because the virus mutates itself. If you Google the virus and look for treatment you will see that it is get plenty of rest drink plenty of fluids keep warm and self quarantine. Sounds a lot like what you would do if you got a cold or the flu. PSA describing the symptoms and the treatment it would go a LONG way in reducing the fears.
 
#160 ·
Not sure if this is accurate (I heard it on the Interwebs), but the U.S. gets something like 92% of its pharmaceuticals from China.

At the very least this virus will lead to a fundamental reordering of the supply chain.
 
#163 · (Edited)
Re discussions as to seriousness:

Even if one is not in the higher risk categories, he/she might very likely have loved relatives, perhaps parents, maybe grandparents, for whom the corona virus is a lethal risk.

I think we might get different answers if we view risk merely from an isolated personal standpoint, an extended family/friends standpoint, or a total population standpoint.

I think community and government leaders are, and should be, pretty much obligated to consider the total population. E.g., if the corona virus sweeps through all senior citizen care- type communities, I think the death total might be considerable...and cause considerable anguish. For that reason alone, I think containment efforts make sense, and in order for containment to have any significant benefit, any outbreak needs to be considered, even if those initially infected are in otherwise good condition and almost certain to recover...i.e., even if they recover, another person who might likely contract the virus from interaction, might not be in such robust health and might not be so able to recover.

The entire community needs to be considered, IMHO.
 
#165 · (Edited)
^^^

Totally agree as to the leftist inclined media.

Obviously the media needs to report on this subject, but it's also obvious that at least some reporters have choosen to take cheap shots at President Trump while doing their reporting. As well as oftentimes creating unproductive (or worse) perceptions in the minds of those types of folks who are more inclined to go into panic mode. I suppose that "excitement" boosts ratings.

There is reason for concern and prudent actions; but not reason for extreme panic-like action or over-excited speech that's likely to induce panic. Fortunately, in my own little environment, I'm not seeing any panic-type actions by those around me. Folks seem pretty level-headed.
 
#166 ·
The media, what a joke!

The other day they were talking up the idea that it was unknown as to whether or not the president had been tested. Clearly trying to attach some sinister aspect to that.

I think that their code of ethics lies something along the lines of never letting the truth get in the way of a good story. :barf:
 
#169 ·
PolymerMan, most of us understand the situation. But you're the guy who freaks out about everything and proclaims that the rest of us don't understand because we're not freaking out too. Take some deep breaths and try to forget about the Coronavirus for a few hours. A coward dies a thousand deaths, a hero dies but once.
 
#175 ·
Local nursing homes cancelling general public visits and screening visitors at the entrances. And Kansas Special Olympics cancelled their State Basketball/Cheerleading Tournaments.

Personally, I think of this, and the VA as being Prudent, not Panicking.


These are Populations that are more "At Risk" as they often have Diminished Immunities.
 
#176 ·
Things are closing all over the place, this is all good, big step in the right direction.
 
#179 ·
This is the kind of thing that will create panic and discontent... reduciing or shutting down essential services.

Lets break this on down:
120k cofirmed cases. To account for undiagnosed cases, heavily, multitude that by a factor of 10. So, for the sake of discussion, lets assume 120m infections to date. In a population of 7 billion people, thats .0017% of the population. Of the 120k confirmed cases, ~3500 fatality. Just under 3%- and thats an absolutewoest case number, based on confirmed cases. Using our x10 multiplier of presumed cases, the mortality is only .0029%
According to WHO and CDC, less than 15% of those infected develop "serious" symptoms- so 85% of infection are < "serious".
This seasons flu in the US:
29k cases, in a population of 350m- 8% of the population. Of those 29k cases, 16k deaths- .005%.
So, CONVID19 is less deadly if you use an exploraterd infection rates, more deadly if you only use confirmed cases- but you're far less likely to contract it. If you're under about 70, and don't have any underlying heath health issues, its unlike you'll ever know if you had it. The bad thing about it is that its virulent, it lingers in the environment. Basic sanitation can mitigate that risk.

As for the "no cure" concern- news flash: you can probably count the total number of viral infections that humanity can "cure" without taking your shoes off. What we can do is mitigate the effects of symptoms, which increased survivability exponensaly.
This is not the pneumatic plague, which depopulated Europe by 30-50% in the 12th century and untreatableat the time- not that a mass de-population would be a bad thing.....
Yes, precautions are in order. Avoiding or canceling events with large crowds in confined spaces. Reduce unnecessary travel. Keep things clean. If you feel poorly, stay home. However, creative panic and paranoia is far more danner than this bug...
 
#178 · (Edited)
I suspect that we'll -- at least many of us -- have plenty of time at home to clean our guns over the next several weeks. Even those of us who aren't really into gun cleaning.:dope:

Hopefully there'll be some good Forum discussion threads as well.
 
#184 ·
Nobody's suggesting that there is a "cure"- and odds are, there never will be one.
What works is sustainment theropod, that allow the immune system to do its thing. You mentioned an extreme example- a respirator. Without it, the patient dies. With it, he sustains until the immune system works.
Its what we've been doing, in various ways, with viral infections for decades. Its all we can do. There are 10s or 100s of thousands of potentially fatal viruses. What we can "cure" is a single digit number. Even thinking of a cure for this anytime soon-as in decades- is in the realm of sheer fantasy.
We can't cure H1N1, or SARS (which is what CONVD19 is, just a different strain) or almost any other viral diseases. I don't understanding why your wrapped around the axle are a cure- we can't cure any (save a handful) of viral infections.
 
#187 ·
No I disagree. Vaccines can be defacto cures for a great many viral and bacterial afflictions. You can be immunized for influenza, polio, measles, rubella, shingles, bacterial pneumonia, etc. The result if you are immunized, you will not suffer the consequences of being exposed to those respective pathogens. Your immune system is "prepped" by the vaccine. Some vaccines are needed only once in a lifetime, some require boosters, some are good only for one year or a few years.

Will they come up with a vaccine for Corvid 19? I think they will because it is so deadly and there is a strong financial incentive for pharmaceutical companies globally to find a vaccine.
 
#188 ·
I got wrapped up my thoughts about this in the "Asian Americans" thread in the General Discussion section. If desired, you can see my thoughts about the hysteria of this cold virus, statistics from elderly-aged weighted nations projected to the USA and general thoughts about government ineptitude from all nations.

At least in this board, general preparations for ANY event including mass hysteria has hopefully been considered where a rush for toilet paper, for instance wont lead to your survival situation!

I'll try to shut up unless asked for clarification of something posted there or if something unique from what I've already contributed to that other thread provides opportunity. Sorry for perhaps focusing on the board of lesser pertinence (and for thinking ya'll think anything that I say is pertinent!). PEACE!
 
#194 ·
I got wrapped up my thoughts about this in the "Asian Americans" thread in the General Discussion section. If desired, you can see my thoughts about the hysteria of this cold virus, statistics from elderly-aged weighted nations projected to the USA and general thoughts about government ineptitude from all nations.

At least in this board, general preparations for ANY event including mass hysteria has hopefully been considered where a rush for toilet paper, for instance wont lead to your survival situation!

I'll try to shut up unless asked for clarification of something posted there or if something unique from what I've already contributed to that other thread provides opportunity. Sorry for perhaps focusing on the board of lesser pertinence (and for thinking ya'll think anything that I say is pertinent!). PEACE!
It very truly is another sign of the Mass-Hysteria...I can order all the steak and food I want on line, but I can't get toilet paper...Thank the CDC for that one, they gave the order 2 weeks ago or so for seniors to stock-on on TP. LOL
 
#191 · (Edited)
There is a new study out yesterday that CV can stay on surfaces for 3 days...This is actually good news, earlier assumptions weeks ago by some in the medical establishment were saying 9 days.

Like anything coming out of the medical establishment, take it with a grain of salt because these studies can sometime oscillate over time (e.g., coffee is good coffee is bad studies).

But I am encouraged by this new 3 day study. Regular flue is usually specked as staying on surfaces 2 days, so if you have habits to manage the latter (I do because I am on chemo), it is easy to upgrade them for an extra day (9 days would be much more difficult).
 
#192 · (Edited)
On CNBC today they had a rational speaker from the medical establishment who said that there was a breakthrough in the test kits and they should be available in much larger #'s next week.

As we do more testing we will find more people have it of course, but we will also find that the death rate calculation (for those infected) will be coming down dramatically (% wise).

That said, the mistake some people make when assessing individual risk is to simply use the death rate. Very wrong way to approach it as an individual...You have to come up with your individual risk of catching it (for most people outside the medical establishment and those in nursing home's this is likely a very low #) and then multiply that by the death rate. You will find this is a very, very, small probability.

It is always better to try to quantify ones personal risk with probabilities (even if it is just an estimate) rather then using gross generalizations like the ones being dispensed by the media outlets. The former leads to peace of mind (and/or guides your decision process if you need to reduce the risk), the latter often leads to hysteria (like we are seeing nationally today).

An analogy here might be mass shootings. The media and anti-gun block would have everyone believe they are at extreme risk of dying in a mass shooting, but for the extreme-majority who spends time to quantify the risk, they will find the risk is infinitesimal...There are virtually infinite examples of this right vs wrong way of thinking about risk in our society.
 
#195 ·
I understand what wcccountryboy is saying, and agree with most of it. While most of the population will probably be asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, there is a large enough segment of the population to worry.
Those over the age of 60 are most at risk. Those under that age have a reduced risk, but there is still risk involved. If enough people have complications, that will overload the medical system, causing more problems.
This is further complicated by in extreme cases, one may never fully recover. One survives, but may not fully recover. There is evidence of loss of lung function in a 15-25% of recovered cases.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html

For most of the population, this panic is stupid and unwarranted. For some of us here, this situation bears close watching.
 
#197 ·
… One survives, but may not fully recover. There is evidence of loss of lung function in a 15-25% of recovered cases.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html
True of many illnesses whether degradation of lung function or some other permanent damage. It can be major or minor. A bout of pneumonia can permanently damage lungs to varying degrees, some leading to life long issues with possibly a shortened life span. I have a cousin who had polio as a child. The only sign of it on her is a small pale patch of skin (I hesitate to call it a scar) on her ankle and she is 66 now. And on and on...
 
#200 · (Edited)
As in a good debate, with quality input/participants on each (every) side, we have some superb input in this thread.

Although the input is not all in agreement (nor should it be in a good debate), taking it all in total, I think we have far better, far more insightful input, here within this thread than what we'll see on CNN, NBC, CBS, etc.

And I think it's safe to say that no one here is advocating any type of panic response. Here, we have no panic, only different assessments of the risks, and best courses of action to protect ourselves and those around us.

I'm somewhat in the middle insofar as perception of the risks, but the input on both (all) sides within this thread is far better than what I've seen on the media. It's not even a close comparison.

+1911 to my Forum friends.
 
#201 · (Edited)
went shopping last night:
1st- Academy Sports to purchase Hornady Black 45 acp 185 gr. ammo @ 13.99 box of 20(not even listed on Hornady website , anyone tried it yet?, lots of shoppers in gun dept. and pistol ammo being cleaned out!
2nd- at 3am went to 24 hr Walmart, lot of shoppers ,shelves cleaned out of toilet paper, alcohols etc.
3rd- looked at buying some canned air, 'MADE IN CHINA'. , probably nothing, but just the thought!
can you imagine if things really get worse!
 
#205 · (Edited)
The grocery stores/ and wholesale clubs are madness. This is historical and I say that because of supply chain issues. I have been through two dozen hurricane warnings/watches that have resulted in empty shelves in stores. Hurricanes panic sales have their own characteristics like the sell out of non-perishable foods, batteries, peanut-butter ;), bread, canned goods etc.

But those tend to be regional... localized to one part of the state. The stores generally can then redirect product from other stores and distribution centers in another part of the state or country and quickly resupply the stores in the path of a storm.

What makes this a truly historical panic buying event is that it is pretty much nationwide. Stores in every state and city are selling out of those specific items like Purell, isopropyl alcohol, N95 masks, bleach, clorax wipes... on and on.

The stores and their supply distributors are literally out. Even with ramped up 24/7 shifts making those products, the distributors are sold out for weeks.

There isn't the ability to redirect supplies from one location 500 miles away to the affected area... its a universal shortage nationwide that may takes weeks to fix.

I went to the wholesale club today for my usual shopping trip to pick up my typical foods like frozen burritos, rice, pasta, etc. Not only were about 70% of the food shelves empty... meat, chicken, but, there were none of the typical disinfectants and cleaning goods available. Nothing of that kind of product was available.

... and the line for check out was just madness. It went to the back of the store and half way back to the front. Possibly as many as 100 shopping carts in line, single file who would then be directed to the cashiers by the manager as they came to the front of the line. It took about 45 minutes to check out.
 
#202 ·
Poly-man, a vaccine doesn't meet your own- and correct- definition of a "cure". Vaccines are preventative measures, not treatments or cures to an ailment.
A de facto cure for a viral infection is what we can do with Hep C- prevnt the virus from reproducing in an infected person, to the the point where the presence of the virus is negligible. We can't get rid of it in a patient, but we can marginalize its impact him- that would be a defacto cure...

You're obviously an educated man- words mean things. A vaccine deos not meet the definition of cure, or even that of defacto as appliedto a cure.... To be cured of an illness, you must first HAVE it. If a vaccine prevents infection, you don't have it, and therefor cannot be cured of it....

I understand your thought process, and its logical. I just think that we need to use words carefully, in order to communicate clearly and effectively.

So, bottom line: we cannot cure viral infections. We can treat symptoms, attack the virus, and render it fudementaly harmless in the patient- but we cannot cure them.
 
#203 ·
I disagree with your point. A preventative measure is quarantine, sanitation, alcohol wipes, hand-washing, and even the elusive N95 face mask. Those are non-medical measures.

Vaccines and anti-virals are the closest thing we have in the medical arts to a remedy, aka a de-facto cure to prevent unnecessary illness and deaths. I have heard doctors also loosely use the concept of vaccine immunization as a "cure" to prevent the spread of a disease.

It's only a matter of semantics.
 
#208 ·
First, since we're discussing terminology, I'd suggest that we are discussing or debating, rather than arguing- the latter infers hostility, anger, or animosity. I have none of that. I've read your work here for years, and have nothing but respect for your opinions.

You're an educated man, and in a hard-sciece field. You, moreso than most, should understand and appreciate the importance of precision in communicating ideas. Words mean things, and altering that meaning to suit your position doesn't mak it correct. I can call my ill tempered, high smelling billy goat the Queen of England- it doesn't make it true....

Beyond that, perhaps its time to agree to disagree, and move along....
 
#209 ·
Today went to local grocery store to pick up a few items. It was a madhouse! Everyone was polite, but very crowded. Folks were buying in bulk. No TP or hand sanitizer.

I'm not a hard core prepper, but the missus and I long ago laid in about 6 months of long term storage freeze dried food, and we keep about a month of normal food in rotation. I long ago stockpiled 100+ gallons of water; besides, I live on a lake and also have my own well. We have a generator with plenty of fuel on hand, which can operate the well pump. I also keep stored a 2 year supply of heating firewood. When the virus news first broke, we updated all our OTC meds, and those prescriptions that needed refill. I've got enough ammo on hand to repel boarders, and I'm a retired EMT. Other than "need to" travel, we will probably become home bodies for awhile. Already cancelled a brief camper trip. Oh, and today we also bought enough dog food to keep our fierce guard dog (12 pound mini dachshund!) in good eats for quite awhile.

I do think this whole issue is getting a little overblown, but I decided years ago to be prepared for a major disruption of society. I've lived thru one really major disaster, and vowed never to be unprepared again. I wish all you 1911 forum folks good luck in living thru this.
 
#210 ·
I agree, I like to be prepared but this? Who would have thought to stock up on hand sanitizers, alcohol wipes, clorox? There was nothing in the Zombie Virus epidemic guidebooks on that!

Funny but I did find Purell wipes in those aluminum packets... in my truck center console and kitchen junk drawer. They are 12 years old... still good.

But I made my own wipes. I always have a couple of bottles of 70% and 92% alcohol I keep mainly because its what I use to wipe my glasses free of fingerprints.

I found just get a quart size zip lock baggie, fold a blue shop towel and place it inside, and pour just a half-ounce of isopropyl alcohol in there and wallah! Its a super heavy duty alcohol wipe you can take with you in the car and it really cleans the snot out of your hand, and there enough alcohol in there to reuse the towel a couple of times.
 
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