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Virus outbreak

50K views 526 replies 81 participants last post by  cavelamb 
#1 ·
This is about the coronavirus NOT SOME STUPID ZOMBIE CRAP. Now that we got that out of the way.

I work in Oxford OH home to Miami U that has about 3k asian students. Two are currently in isolation pending test results from the cdc. While there is not chaos there is definatly some mild panic going on. Lots of mask wearing and a few in hazmat suits. I have seen this with my own eyes and the pictures online are real. 2 of my part timers are students and I have seen their personal cell phone pics as well.

The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic. Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents.

So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?
 
#109 ·
Hopefully all of these Demo candidates will all go around.

And shake the wrong hand, or kiss the wrong baby and become one of the two per-centers. :D
 
#110 ·
My plan is to stay healthy until the vaccine comes out.
Like the flu, it looks like Corona does more damage to people with weakened immune systems or living in unsanitary conditions.
While it might become a greater threat like the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, there is nothing yet to indicate it is going down that path, which is a good thing!
 
#111 ·
I really wish people would stop comparing this to the flu. Its current morbidity and mortality rate is between 7 and 20 times worse than the flu.
I’m not sure the numbers support this statement. Far more people are dying from the flu than this virus.

Decisions to close or open borders may be attributed to emotional reactions as much as the are to real dangers.

I maintain that if you follow the same procedures as you should for the flu, you are unlikely to be any more affected than bu the flu, with the exception that there is not yet a vaccine for this one.
 
#114 ·
I really wish people would stop comparing this to the flu. Its current morbidity and mortality rate is between 7 and 20 times worse than the flu.
Im not sure where this latter statment came from. ~100k cases worldwide, and <3500 fatalities in a population of well over 7 BILLION...
Conversely, 29 million cases and 16k deaths from this year's flu- in the US alone...
 
#115 ·
For years I've had mild onset COPD (from years of smoking). I don't need or take any medication but I am more susceptible to bronchial infections. Two months ago my wife caught a persistent cold, and eventually I came down with it. So I've been coughing in on and off spasms for a month now. No fever, no wheezing, blah blah blah. But I do wear a simple paper surgical mask when shopping in the market or going out in public, all under the premise that something is better than nothing. My "prepper" supplies are my basic earthquake supplies. And I can load it all in our cars if we felt a need to leave Los Angeles. Beyond that, shopping at non-peak hours, keeping the gas tanks 3/4 full, and having several days of food and water that can be prepared without electricity or gas if necessary, having a certain amount of cash in small bills, and of course a prudent supply of ammo and first aid supplies is our basic plan. From the many confusing comments in the media, I get the feeling that this is more contagious but less dangerous than the normal flu. And it seems to infect the elderly more than the young.
As to where it came from...viruses have their own agenda.
 
#117 ·
Nobody wants to see people die so there is always some sadness, but as many of us have been pointing out from the start of this thread, the numbers induce by CV pails compared to regular influenza...Nothing changes for me as I noted above, I take daily chemo pills which are a miracle in themselves because of how effective they are and how minimal the side effects are, but they do compromise the immune system. So all the things being recommended for CV hot-spots I have been doing for many years already during flue season, plus I wear a mask in tight public spaces...I did it then and I do it now to lower my personal risk to flue, not CV.

What amazes me is the public panic over CV. I would hate to see if there was a true national disaster in this country, the levels of panic induced by government, the national media, and exacerbated by Social-Media, will be a thing to behold.
 
#118 · (Edited)
In the meantime the stock market is presenting a great opportunity, the lows of two Fridays ago were being tested yesterday again (and held so far), volume on the downside had dried up dramatically (bullish sign), almost all the physiological indicators are extreme bullish (these measure levels of panic, when they are very high (most are through the roof right now) this is a bullish sign).

Moreover, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 1% - this is historic. Another sign of extreme-panic. The SPY-ETF yields 1.9%. Typically when stocks yield more then the 10 Year it is another very bullish sign. As the panic gets worn down, money will come out of Treasuries and flood into stocks.

No guarantees of course (invest at your own risk, speak to a financial adviser, and all other apropos caveats :)), but this "movie" of stock-market panic has played out many, many times before, so the odds look very good it is heading to the same positive outcome.
 
#119 ·
I've no concerns about the virus. I am concerned about the foolish mass hysteria surrounding the facts and circumstances of the virus.

People need to calm down. I've read that that actual death rate will likely be well below 1%.

The press learned long ago that sensationalism sells newspapers, and in the modern media of today, sensationalism just as effectively drives clicks. The landing pages of many outlets are inundating readers with bold headlines coupled with disturbing photos of medical personnel clothed in ominous biohazard suits or citizens in N95 face masks (a medical accoutrement that until a few weeks ago few had heard of, and about which many now know just enough to be dangerous).

News aggregator sites are interlaced with headlines short of facts and long on speculation. “How Long Will It Last?” “Oregon Hit!” And my personal favorite: “Toilet Paper Rationing in Hawaii,” a headline that perhaps most accurately alludes to the substance of the many of these reports (albeit unintentionally, I am sure).

Stop worrying about this, people. This will pass.
 
#125 ·
Well certainly all should conduct themselves as they see fit.

And generally speaking, panicked reactions are historically a pretty poor return on investment.

However I spoke with my sister in law today. She is neither an epidemiologist, nor is she even a virologist. She is however, a highly respected micro biologist. Her clearly guarded, and well considered replies to my inquiries gave me pause to consider things.

She stated a number of things to me that gave me cause for concern. Not least of which was that we are clearly dealing with something new here as things that should be happening according to normal paths of virology. They are not occurring. Additionally things that would not be expected to show themselves in this regard actually are doing so.

So you pays your money and you takes your chances, the same as always. I have however reconsidered some things with renewed interest post conversation with my SIL.
 
#126 ·
I don't think there is any surprise that the CV is more deadly as age goes up, that likely applies to almost any aliment...What is unique in a positive way is the 100% survival of infants and young children.

Like most things in life, depends on how one wants to look at things. "Half empty, or Half full".

Good to prepare for all possibilities, but CV is on the very low side as far as risk of death to any individual American overall, and is totally outsizes by influenza. Good news is, if you protect yourself from influenza (and I am talking about steps one should take outside the flew shot), you are also protecting yourself from CV.
 
#127 ·
I know and work with some very highly respected and renowned physicians in infectious disease and pulmonology and there’s not much to report thusfar.

Once more survival #s come via increased test results, peoples anxieties should decrease. Hand washing shouldn’t cause anxiety. The affected industries, ie. cruise industry and many others are being hit hard. That will continue for some time or at least until better testing is more available.
 
#129 ·
The real danger with Corvid 19 is the fact that it can spread from a surface some several hours to 36 hours after an infected person deposits the virus on a surface.

The next major issue is that some people have no symptom and can be carriers spreading the virus.

This does have the potential to become a true pandemic.

You can thank the Chinese for this. ;)
 
#130 · (Edited)
Basic personal and industrial protections can essentially solve the entire thing. And the temperature gradient we are coming into is also a game changer...Modifying certain dogma's in this country would be a good thing, like the societal "necessity" to shake hands would be better served with a wave, nod, or bow, like start respecting people's personal space, like societal acceptance of the use of people wearing protection masks in flue season in this country (like say Japan does)

So unless one can pair a mega-ice age this summer, with the spread of CV on the scale of the Bubonic-Plague, life will go on.

A Doctor made a good point on CNBC this morning, the techniques industries like air-travel, and cruise-ships, etc., are using in this panic - some of them may be used in the future regularly (well after CV is no longer a frightening bogie-man) which will help fight the real enemy - Influenza. 40-60 thousand dead Americans each year in America alone and no one blinks an eye. No media induced panic. No stock-market panic.
 
#131 · (Edited)
As far as the word "pandemic" which the media likes to throw around to sensationalize:

If one believes this is a pandemic, one would logically have to conclude the routine annual Influenza is a mega-pandemic.

Pandemics can be used any way one wants to I suppose, but historically, the word is reserved for times in history when many 10's of millions (or even 100's of millions) die world-wide.

Of course the media doesn't want to use any sort of reasonable definition of the word as it doesn't suite their needs.

So if the media wants to call CV a pandemic it would also have to believe we live in a constant state of pandemic because the regular annual flue...Of course not hard to see their inconsistency of the applications of words to suite their purposes...Don't fall for their BS.
 
#132 ·
I think that a pandemic can be avoided with the proper precautions.

But I disagree with you in the sense I don't believe that this is being overblown and sensationalized.

The problem is that the human population at large has absolutely no immunity to this virus. None. There is no treatment for it. None.

The only thing that can be done is to isolate those that are suspected of being infected and to engage in proactive hygienic habits like washing hands and avoiding close contact with others.

The fact is, they were able to observe how fast the virus spread in Wuhan China. It spread like wildfire because people are infectious BEFORE they actually have symptoms themselves. That is unlike the Flu where someone with obvious symptoms can be avoided.

Trust me, this virus can be a difficult global problem because it will interfere with commerce, travel and the economy. Just look at how the stock market has tanked.
 
#137 ·
The CDC describes the new respiratory disease caused by new novel corona virus.
The new virus is named as "SARS-CoV2", the disease it cause is named corona virus disease 2019 abbrieviated "COVID-2019".
My understanding is there are various corona virus that depending on the specific virus can cause different disease including the common cold.
This new virus is a SARS classification.
It is apparently transmitted in similar vector as the flu.
Consequences and severity is being discovered through testing and treatment.
The CDC has updated info each day.
The developments will appear over time.
 
#139 · (Edited)
It is actually worse than I thought, Trish R. on FOX just presented a clip of some MSNBC commentator predicting that 80% of the population in our country will survive cv, and 15-20% will die...Nah, they aren't pushing an agenda - LOL.
 
#144 · (Edited)
Morning thought:

As mentioned above, the Stock-market over the long-term is a great predictor of economic activity, but in the short term it very often is not....

This is one of those times it is not...In this case today, we should not be using this sell-off as a proxy to indicate the economic slowdown to come, or the magnitude of the CV risk. Rather, we should use the Stock-market's as a societal "CV-Panic-Gauge". And we can see the panic is extreme.

Yes, there will be a short-term small-blip to economic activity, but as the panic settles because of over repetition of the fake-News doom and gloom - people just eventually tune it off (just as they ignore risk of regular flue already), money will come flooding back into the markets at a violent rate.

Does anyone think that "Big"-money will be happy with sub 1% interest rates in the 5 and 10 year Treasury for very long?

Until mother nature or some evil-totalitarian state creates a virus which can reverse the key attributes of the Great Trump economy, like much less regulation, like fair trade deals, like lower taxes, etc., there isn't a virus on earth which is going to have a lasting economic effect.:rock::)
 
#147 · (Edited)
Frankly, the market really isn't reacting to the idea that the virus will kill people. They could care less if grandma and grandpa die gasping for air.

Their reaction is based solely on the global preventative measures being implemented which they don't like. They don't like how the 'velocity of money' will take a tumble for at least this quarter. This will result in a wide range of businesses unable to make a profit or show growth. The fact that oil demand has dropped, airline travel is being halted in many markets, much of the entertainment field where large crowd congregate... all of that, will result in cash flow reduction across the entirety of the economy worldwide. This includes going to the movies, dinner at a restaurants, shopping at malls etc. The result far less money exchanges hands and that is the net effect of the preventative measures... a reduction of the money velocity which is crucial part of our economy. So what do they do in anticipation of next quarters earnings projection? They cash out to realized their gains for the past year before it all disappears.

I've been in the market for two major crash and corrections... 1999 and 2008. We will see these drops and 'dead-cat bounces' for months to come.
 
#149 · (Edited)
#150 ·
Ok, have to add this to the above post........

_________ says we need more data. He said that the Chinese are notorious for making information fit for what they want it to fit. Their mortality rate is roughly 3%, but they didn’t test everyone that was symptomatic. So their 3% is low. Italy is around 5% mortality and ________ says he’d believe the Italian government much more than the Chinese.

This is from a guy I know, and I'd trust his comments on Diseases. He says the data I've linked is fairly accurate if keeping his opinion in mind.
 
#152 ·
I can not answer your question.



But I was glad to see my order from DATREX show up today.
 
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