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  #226  
Old 03-24-2020, 03:49 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
I haven't given any examples.

I'm merely stating that the CDC and the world wide epidemiological community have far greater knowledge on the morbidity and mortality rate of this pathogen than you or I have. Secondly you don't know how old or current the models are that the CDC is basing its projections from best case to worst case, and how often they adjust their models, or what variables they treat as unknowns.

Too many people just want to dismiss this as overblown. It could be overblown but we will not know for months and perhaps years when this pathogen can be further analyzed. But it the meantime, I will prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

It is just that there could be hundred of variables in an epidemiological projection that it isn't just comparing the seasonal flu numbers with this epidemic. It is not that simple.
Actually I can say how old it is, it can only be one week newer than the virus at best. You can't model something that doesn't exist yet/you have zero info on. You can use a model for something similar but it will not correlate relativity speaking once you start projecting further and further out and that's only for simple stuff not this. They will have a good working model once its already over just like everything else.
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  #227  
Old 03-24-2020, 04:17 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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Oh look!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...hone-location/

How wonderful they are to track everyone, can't wait to see how this will be used to force compliance to whatever next big panic that comes up the pipe. It will happen at some point and the way it will get there is by the masses at large panicking like they are now and allowing more and more rights to be lost.
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  #228  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:00 AM
Pale Face Pale Face is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
I haven't given any examples.

I'm merely stating that the CDC and the world wide epidemiological community have far greater knowledge on the morbidity and mortality rate of this pathogen than you or I have. Secondly you don't know how old or current the models are that the CDC is basing its projections from best case to worst case, and how often they adjust their models, or what variables they treat as unknowns.

Too many people just want to dismiss this as overblown. It could be overblown but we will not know for months and perhaps years when this pathogen can be further analyzed. But it the meantime, I will prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

It is just that there could be hundred of variables in an epidemiological projection that it isn't just comparing the seasonal flu numbers with this epidemic. It is not that simple.
I think the issue is not with the experts who do understand the limits of their modeling and the predictions based thereon but the non-experts who make a living by peddling alarm. Regardless of whether through ignorance or willful distortion, many of the statistics presented in the mass media (especially the mortality rate) lack the context to be truly informative, but they can serve to panic those who do not understand just what the figures mean and (equally important) what they don't mean.
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  #229  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:10 AM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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Two stores in Burbank are again open for business. Gun World and Guns Direct. They have to practice safe distances, will control how many people can be in the stores at one time, and will separate picks up from new purchases and ammo buyers so that the picks get processed with as much priority as possible. But someone blinked, perhaps in Burbank city government. Let's not crow about it or flood the stores, lets just quietly do what we need to do and keep it all very low key and calm.
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  #230  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:38 AM
sailor7 sailor7 is offline
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I am a little behind the curve on this conversation but I do believe that the figures for the pneumatic plague are overblown and highly inflated.
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  #231  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:45 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
Yes you are! You are precisely doing that, using your own style of countryboy modeling. You are disputing the mortality rate using God knows what science and pitting it against the CDC and other credentialed sources.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
CDC themselves state that 85% (using whatever model they have) of cases are asymptomatic: therefore never going to be "confirmed". So, for every 15 "confirmed" cases, there are ~85 more that won't be tested, or confimed, because symptoms don't warrant it.
Yet, when calculating mortality, only "confirmed" cases are used. This, given CDCs own date, produces an artificially high mortality rate. It leaves 4 out of 5 cases unaccounted for...

If you can't see the flaw in the process, I can't help that...
It is amazing how much time we (collectively) spend bickering over the years even just btwn the 3 of us at various times, never mind the entire forum, even after both sides have made their individual cases and there isn't much chance of changing anyone's mind at that point...Nevertheless, I bet if the 3 of us met in real-life, we would get along very well as I believe most of our core beliefs are aligned...Of course we would have to be wearing N95 masks and R-gloves if that happen anytime soon.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-25-2020 at 05:16 AM.
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  #232  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:54 AM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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I doubt it
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  #233  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:42 AM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
It is amazing how much time we (collectively) spend bickering over the years even just btwn the 3 of us at various times, never mind the entire forum, even after both sides have made their individual cases and there isn't much chance of changing anyone's mind at that point...Nevertheless, I bet if the 3 of us met in real-life, we would get along very well as I believe most of our core beliefs are aligned...Of course we would have to be wearing N95 masks and R-gloves if that happen anytime soon.
One thing is for sure, each one of you bring good points to the table. The entertaining part is when one clobbers the other and the third guy piles on!
Keeps it a bit lively around here........
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  #234  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:48 AM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Striker2237 View Post
Oh look!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...hone-location/

How wonderful they are to track everyone, can't wait to see how this will be used to force compliance to whatever next big panic that comes up the pipe. It will happen at some point and the way it will get there is by the masses at large panicking like they are now and allowing more and more rights to be lost.
Yeah, saw that yesterday. I guess I’ll just have to leave my phone at home now. I wonder how many people know about the little black box that is in their car (since 1994). I’m sure the capabilities are far greater than they were 25 years ago. I’m not talking about the voluntary Onstar crap either.

Last edited by Nitro.45; 03-25-2020 at 06:50 AM.
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  #235  
Old 03-25-2020, 07:32 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro.45 View Post
One thing is for sure, each one of you bring good points to the table. The entertaining part is when one clobbers the other and the third guy piles on!
Keeps it a bit lively around here........
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  #236  
Old 03-25-2020, 07:40 AM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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How much longer do you guys think that the entire state of CA will remain "Locked Down"?
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  #237  
Old 03-25-2020, 08:01 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Originally Posted by HarryO45 View Post
How much longer do you guys think that the entire state of CA will remain "Locked Down"?
A while...2 months maybe...

I'm just guessing based on this anecdotal "evidence":

POTUS wants to restart the national economy by Easter, at least parts of it.

Cuomo has publicly said we can't survive with the entire NYC closed for very long.

I haven't see any comments from Gavin on this subject though, and being that is the land of fruits and nutz, I think it will lag a bit.
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  #238  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:33 AM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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I believe that China tried to ease restrictions and that the infection rate rebounded , so they went back into lockdown.

Don't quote me, that's from my wife who is watching this closer than myself.

As for "opening for business" by Easter, while we are currently on a rapid increase in cases, so easing restrictions is not very bright. It's increased to 55,502 known infected and 728 dead as of this morning.

To Re-Open without at least a significant reduction in new cases of infection would be dumb. And at this moment new cases are very much on the increase.
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  #239  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:39 AM
Tarmy Tarmy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryO45 View Post
How much longer do you guys think that the entire state of CA will remain "Locked Down"?
Forever, if it helps the friggin’ Demoncraps eliminate 2A or the gun stores

People seem to be moving around more, me included, and the roads are starting to get more crowded already. It looks like the initial panic has worn off a bit.

Hell, the internet...”over react to everything” crowd may have actually started to semi-educate themselves about all this stuff and realized that they are being overrun by the government overlords.
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  #240  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:49 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
I believe that China tried to ease restrictions and that the infection rate rebounded , so they went back into lockdown.

Don't quote me, that's from my wife who is watching this closer than myself.

As for "opening for business" by Easter, while we are currently on a rapid increase in cases, so easing restrictions is not very bright. It's increased to 55,502 known infected and 728 dead as of this morning.

To Re-Open without at least a significant reduction in new cases of infection would be dumb. And at this moment new cases are very much on the increase.
It is aspirational...It would be moronic not to start talking about opening up part of the country up again, to get the Governers and medical establishment looking at ways to put some people back to work...Even Cuomo speaks of this as a necessity and he is in a world of crap because of NYC right now.

It is not all or nothing...We can have many people working and still provide best-practices to keep the spreading to a minimum.

Premature death is sad, but this is not the end of civilization the Doom and Gloomers have been predicting.

And you are incorrect about China, they are opening up, some selected areas may be doing a do-over.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-25-2020 at 10:53 AM.
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  #241  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:54 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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From CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

Take a look at the the chart that's tracking daily cases by illness onset date.... it paints a different picture...
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  #242  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:13 AM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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There are lots of ways to bring the economy back on line, Cumo is speaking to this right now. Theoretically, it can even be based on age, keeping older folks out longer (just as a possible example)...The word he used is "risk-stratification". It is a good word. Cuomo is highly motivated, NYS is loosing billions in lost revenue right now.

It would be very foolish to not get people back to work where it makes sense. It is all about risk management, being creative, and keeping the negativity in check.
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  #243  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:02 PM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
From CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

Take a look at the the chart that's tracking daily cases by illness onset date.... it paints a different picture...
Well, that's interesting, looks like a peak around the 16th of March..
Its not like we quit testing people either.
Something else interesting...how is it that New York has 26,358 cases and Ca with a population of 40 million only has 2,511? Maybe because they are all smashed together??
All this goes to show is that we will not have any accurate data until this thing is long gone. Theory and guesswork will have to suffice for now.
I just hope they don't say nitrocellulose is the cure....
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  #244  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:13 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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If we have a permanent peak around the Ideas Of March, that would be awesome.
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  #245  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:16 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro.45 View Post
Well, that's interesting, looks like a peak around the 16th of March..
Its not like we quit testing people either.
Something else interesting...how is it that New York has 26,358 cases and Ca with a population of 40 million only has 2,511? Maybe because they are all smashed together??
All this goes to show is that we will not have any accurate data until this thing is long gone. Theory and guesswork will have to suffice for now.
I just hope they don't say nitrocellulose is the cure....
Thats one conclusion. Another, probably accurate conclusion would be, if, hypothetically, we could magically produce another 500k tests, administer them, and get results- overnight- that there would be another sudden upward spike in "confirmed " cases....

There's pleanty of data, both specific to SARS- CoV-2, and more abstract to epidemiology in general. Some os accurate, some is more theoretical.

NY is case heavy exactly for the reason you suggest- population density. Its a psudo mega city. CA is far more spread out
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  #246  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:21 PM
mdellis49 mdellis49 is offline
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Striker/Countryboy: I pray that you are correct and that this whole situation is overblown. I also pray that Karma doesn't pay you a visit. It would seem that some people only consider it a crisis if they are one of the miniscule % that are laying in a hospital bed connected to incubator. I personally would rather err on the side of caution. I live on 3 acres in the Sierras, my closest neighbor is 3 acres away, so that is my social distancing. The local Safeway 9 miles away has senior shopping on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 6AM till 9AM. Next Tuesday we will probably break quarantine and go in for supplies. When we return home we will resume self quarantine and continue to do so as long as necessary. Fortunately I am retired and don't have anyplace I "have" to be. Good Luck to you and your families, praying for your safety.
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  #247  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:34 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarmy View Post
People seem to be moving around more, me included, and the roads are starting to get more crowded already. It looks like the initial panic has worn off a bit.
In the end it doesn’t really matter what doctors or scientists say. I doubt that your politicians have any credibility. People are gonna do their own math and come to their own conclusions. I don’t know the right answer, but I don’t think a State wide “Lock Down” is gonna work. In my opinion, if the rumors are true about people fleeing the state, then it has already failed.

It doesn’t matter if Lock Down is the best move or not. It is the will of the people that is gonna prevail. I think the risk is gonna be weighed as too low for many healthy Americans to remain at home. People want to work. Unfortunately older Americans are smart to stay in place.
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  #248  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:09 PM
BuckeyeRaider BuckeyeRaider is offline
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Already happening in Ohio
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  #249  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:39 PM
Dave A Dave A is offline
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Idaho Governor issued a "stay in place" order this afternoon. Lots of exceptions, like going to get groceries, doctor, truckers, mechanics, mail, UPS, more or less all essential services will stay open. Restaurants closed except for drive thru, or curb service. Supposed to last for 21 days. Up till now, only Blaine county had restrictions, that is Sun Valley where they had a concentration of cases. I think the whole state of Idaho only has about 60 cases, but it might be a few more now.

I am not concerned, lots of food on hand and necessary hardware to protect it. No one expects any problems from this, other than the TP shelves and some others tend to get cleaned off rapidly. That panic buying will taper off soon enough and it will get back to normal here.

I do think that the medical experts are looking for a flattening of the new case reported curve, which generally indicates it is under control. Some states are getting out ahead of it and some with very dense population clusters are not as of yet. It is amusing to see the Mayor of NYC blaming the president for his problems, while he didn't lock down his city and citizens fled to infect other areas of the country.
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  #250  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:50 PM
TejanoViejo TejanoViejo is offline
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Wow !!! . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by JBnTX View Post
Why is he coming to Texas? ~ He was Coming Home !!!

We already have too many Californians here. ~ HUH ??? . . . He's a Texan !!!

Somebody meet him at the border and turn him around-back to California. ~ "SOMEBODY" ??? Sooo, JBnTX ... Why Don't "You" Just Try to Do That ???
Shame on You !!!
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Last edited by TejanoViejo; 03-25-2020 at 06:43 PM. Reason: Correct TYPO
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