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  #326  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:05 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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On a side note, A family friend has a relative in France, a doctor. He was treating Covid patients, presumably taking as much precautions as possible. I just got a group text saying that he has contracted the disease & is now in a coma.

This group chat is an ongoing thing so I expect to hear more over the next few days, if his condition changes.
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  #327  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:24 PM
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I hope your family friend pulls through and having friends and family in the medical field I have been praying for all them around the world.
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  #328  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:38 PM
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One thing I'd bet we can all agree too, all the medical workers from the receptionist to the to-notch doctors who come in contact with any patients (CV or not) are true heroes!...And right now I say the same thing to the check-out ladies in the food store who are allowed to wear gloves but not allowed to wear masks.
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  #329  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:01 PM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
You haven't read what I wrote or at least you don't understand why I wrote that... I don't have to prove anything because the projection I made is just as careless and pseudo-scientific as the nay-sayers comparing this to the Flu. Period.

This is not the flu.

Sitting at home and second guessing the CDC or Anthony Fauci, and other established epidemiologists worldwide is equally as careless as making a doomsday prediction. That is my point. I will listen to the people that have established credentials.
Fair enough. I understand this post more than I did the last. I see where you stand now. Thanks for the clarification.
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  #330  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:04 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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From the foremost expert in the US:

https://www.infowars.com/dr-fauci-co...-very-bad-flu/
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  #331  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:38 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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Infowars / Alex Jones? How Alex's folks interpreted the Dr's quotes from 10 Times the mortality of the seasonal flu to "akin to the seasonal flu" is impressive. They sure are good at their craft. Props to them.

Meanwhile a 25 year old San Diego man, with no preexisting conditions, just died of Covid 19. He was a pharmacy tech. Check the news for the details.

The seasonal flu can really suck, Most of us here have had it & know the misery. But a healthy young man, dead at 25? ------------------ this ain't no "flu" like we're used to.
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  #332  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:46 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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The original source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Same information. Exactly. From THE medical publication of record in the US. A doctor can say whatever he will on TV, withoutconsequence.. Reputations rise or fall on publications in the NEJM.
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  #333  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:54 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Additional, though the article was published today, it was submitting on 28 February
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  #334  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:13 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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Yes, Paragraph #5 contains several clues that it was written on Feb 26th. Note that Infowars said it was published on "Thursday" which appears correct. But the article does seem to be a month older, in a rapidly changing landscape.

But hey, the New England Journal Of Medicine is a source I would consider very reputable.
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  #335  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:27 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
Yes, Paragraph #5 contains several clues that it was written on Feb 26th. Note that Infowars said it was published on "Thursday" which appears correct. But the article does seem to be a month older, in a rapidly changing landscape.

But hey, the New England Journal Of Medicine is a source I would consider very reputable.
The supplemental tabs provide the submission date....

So, the source is good. At least one of the authors is highly credible. And the article directly compares the clinical impacts of SARS CoV-2 to a bad flu year...

I understand why public statments have thus far been more dire. Its not medicine, its strategic communications. Its focusing on specific information, in this case the absolute worst case, IOT provoke a desired response in the target audience- the populace at large. I'm not suggesting that the strategy is wrong- I've done it myself, on a much smaller scale, as a strategic planner.

Everything If suggested for the last week is supported by this article.
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  #336  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:15 PM
magazineman magazineman is offline
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As of 3/2/20 8:00 PM the US is at 101,295 confirmed infected and 1,589 dead.

On Feb 29 it was 22 confirmed infected and 1 dead.

One to 1,589 dead in only twenty seven days.

GM ordered to make ventilators because the US only has 200k on hand.

Trajectory -------- what is it? What will these numbers be next Friday? Heck, what will they be tomorrow night?

Peaked March 16th? No freakin' way.
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  #337  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:31 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
As of 3/2/20 8:00 PM the US is at 101,295 confirmed infected and 1,589 dead.

On Feb 29 it was 22 confirmed infected and 1 dead.

One to 1,589 dead in only twenty seven days.

GM ordered to make ventilators because the US only has 200k on hand.

Trajectory -------- what is it? What will these numbers be next Friday? Heck, what will they be tomorrow night?

Peaked March 16th? No freakin' way.
This is a completely normal epidemic pattern... Look at what CDC has to say about illness onset times, and its trend. Thats, hands down, with ALL available information, the best predictive indicator available. From the best source available. Your fixation on ONLY "confimed" cases (even though the best mind in the US said a month ago that actual cases are most likely severat x grearer) and mortality numbers is just simplistic and ignorant. Quit looking at case and mortality numbers every hour, and look at ALL the data available...
If you can't recognized that, you're simply married to your doom and gloom, end of the world position- a statment from Gods mouth to your ear wouldn't change your mind....
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  #338  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:18 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Miami-Dade may implement random sampling method of Corvid 19 testing. Rather than test just people with symptoms or or with high risk indicators, they are proposing a random sampling to learn what percentage of the population has the virus, regardless if they are symptomatic.

This would allow authorities to map out hot zones.

They are doing this Iceland and researchers at the Un. of Miami Florida have proposed a random test study.

https://www.wlrn.org/post/random-cor...dents#stream/0
Quote:
Researchers will soon start giving random tests for the novel coronavirus to residents of Miami-Dade County, whether they currently fit the narrow criteria for testing or not.

“The reason we want it to be random is we don’t want to only screen individuals who have symptoms,” said Erin Kobetz, a professor of medicine and public health sciences at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine. “We want to understand the prevalence of infection for people who don’t have symptoms, because one of the things we’ve heard as we look to national and international news is that for every one person we’re testing, that there are also ten to eleven other individuals who are also infected.”
Sort of like a telephone survey poll where a sampling is made, the trick is to have a true random sampling of the population.

Iceland:
https://fortune.com/2020/03/27/coron...ovid-19-tests/
Quote:
By screening healthy as well as sick people, say scientists, Iceland and deCODE have assembled a far more accurate picture of COVID-19. And the results are sobering. “The virus had a much, much wider spread in the community than we would have assumed, based on the screening of high-risk people,” deCODE’s founder and CEO Kári Stefánsson told Fortune by phone from his office in Reykjavík on Wednesday. As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested in the country. Of those, 15 are in hospitals, two of them in intensive care. The rest—many of whom are asymptomatic—have been ordered to self-quarantine.
... and NO! This is not some bad flu folks, the pathogen has the potential to create an overwhelming global pandemic.
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  #339  
Old 03-28-2020, 01:11 AM
YVK YVK is offline
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I don't contribute to this site anymore but decided to stop by today and check things out. What a ****show of a thread, everyone is an expert. I'll address this one below briefly and go back to where I came from.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
The original source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Same information. Exactly. From THE medical publication of record in the US. A doctor can say whatever he will on TV, withoutconsequence.. Reputations rise or fall on publications in the NEJM.
You're concentrating on wrong parts, just like you did throughout this thread, such as percentage of asymptomatic vs mild vs whatever. BTW, these numbers are subject to the same inaccuracies as what you folks call "mortality" here.

First, Fauci didn't say that COVID19 case fatality rate (CFR) is going to be the same as of flu. He said it might be under 1% and close to a regular flu's of 0.1%, but at no point he committed to any number. So far the lowest CFR we've seen among large outbreaks is that of Germany, at about 0.4%. It is still four times higher than that of influenza.

Second, CFR by itself is doesn't tell the story. Low CFR but wide community spread will result in a large mortality and morbidity burden. Basic reproduction number R for a seasonal influenza is about 1.2; this is a number of people that get infected by one sick person. Basic reproduction number R of COVD19 is roughly twice that, so for the same CFR we may expect twice as many deaths. With a lowest known CFR to date (Germany again) and R twice that of the flu we can expect 8 times higher losses.

Third, the CFR for the flu is reflective of a "natural lethality" of the virus as it interfaces with a normal status of healthcare delivery. We never run out of resources during seasonal flu. Rapid progression of SARS-CoV2 infection cases and certain specific management aspects have a very strong potential to overwhelm the healthcare system and prevent our ability to pull out the patients that we normally would've if we didn't have too many of them. That's what happened in Italy, and their CFR is 10%. 100 times more than of a flu.

There might be factors that will mitigate the severity of this infection, mainly a possibility of prior longer circulation that we knew of, rendering a good percentage of people already immune. But we don't know that yet.

Everyone here carries a gun for protection. Literally nobody here have used it in a civilian world, and literally nobody will. Statistically, nobody needs a gun. Most certainly, nobody needs a .500 Corbon double-chamber comped 3.0 lbs triggered $5000 Wilson in their pants, and AR with DBAL by their bedside. Yet we do that, because we prepare for the worst possible scenario. Don't you ****ing dare doubt the people whose full time job for all of their lives is to protect the country from maladies for preparing for the worst possible scenario.
I hope you all don't get too insulted by the abrasive language. I am pretty tired to read these interweb pontifications, spending half of my time away from the hospital because we can't risk all of us getting wiped out at the same time while taking care of you all.
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  #340  
Old 03-28-2020, 02:57 AM
Aklon Aklon is offline
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Medical, financial, food trips not included.
Speaking from experience, you are also allowed to make that last visit to people in final care hospice.
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  #341  
Old 03-28-2020, 04:46 AM
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Imissedagain Imissedagain is offline
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Originally Posted by YVK View Post
I don't contribute to this site anymore but decided to stop by today and check things out. What a ****show of a thread, everyone is an expert. I'll address this one below briefly and go back to where I came from.



You're concentrating on wrong parts, just like you did throughout this thread, such as percentage of asymptomatic vs mild vs whatever. BTW, these numbers are subject to the same inaccuracies as what you folks call "mortality" here.

First, Fauci didn't say that COVID19 case fatality rate (CFR) is going to be the same as of flu. He said it might be under 1% and close to a regular flu's of 0.1%, but at no point he committed to any number. So far the lowest CFR we've seen among large outbreaks is that of Germany, at about 0.4%. It is still four times higher than that of influenza.

Second, CFR by itself is doesn't tell the story. Low CFR but wide community spread will result in a large mortality and morbidity burden. Basic reproduction number R for a seasonal influenza is about 1.2; this is a number of people that get infected by one sick person. Basic reproduction number R of COVD19 is roughly twice that, so for the same CFR we may expect twice as many deaths. With a lowest known CFR to date (Germany again) and R twice that of the flu we can expect 8 times higher losses.

Third, the CFR for the flu is reflective of a "natural lethality" of the virus as it interfaces with a normal status of healthcare delivery. We never run out of resources during seasonal flu. Rapid progression of SARS-CoV2 infection cases and certain specific management aspects have a very strong potential to overwhelm the healthcare system and prevent our ability to pull out the patients that we normally would've if we didn't have too many of them. That's what happened in Italy, and their CFR is 10%. 100 times more than of a flu.

There might be factors that will mitigate the severity of this infection, mainly a possibility of prior longer circulation that we knew of, rendering a good percentage of people already immune. But we don't know that yet.

Everyone here carries a gun for protection. Literally nobody here have used it in a civilian world, and literally nobody will. Statistically, nobody needs a gun. Most certainly, nobody needs a .500 Corbon double-chamber comped 3.0 lbs triggered $5000 Wilson in their pants, and AR with DBAL by their bedside. Yet we do that, because we prepare for the worst possible scenario. Don't you ****ing dare doubt the people whose full time job for all of their lives is to protect the country from maladies for preparing for the worst possible scenario.
I hope you all don't get too insulted by the abrasive language. I am pretty tired to read these interweb pontifications, spending half of my time away from the hospital because we can't risk all of us getting wiped out at the same time while taking care of you all.
And I thought you logged on to try and win that box of ammo.
My boy had to carry the Mrs out of the operating room, kicking and screaming, as there are other competent surgeons that are not giving birth in four weeks.
80% of his new family are competent medical professionals and they are driven to save lives.
Two weeks ago we were all exposed as our young Mayor has it.
All is well so far.

I'd run out of ink before finishing a list a sub-par medical clowns I've met.

Stay safe!!!

I carry a 460 S&W Magnum Snub.
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  #342  
Old 03-28-2020, 05:08 AM
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Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
Infowars / Alex Jones? How Alex's folks interpreted the Dr's quotes from 10 Times the mortality of the seasonal flu to "akin to the seasonal flu" is impressive. They sure are good at their craft. Props to them.

Meanwhile a 25 year old San Diego man, with no preexisting conditions, just died of Covid 19. He was a pharmacy tech. Check the news for the details.

The seasonal flu can really suck, Most of us here have had it & know the misery. But a healthy young man, dead at 25? ------------------ this ain't no "flu" like we're used to.
Hogwash, young people die from seasonal flue also (32, 27, 12, years of age - see link) likely much more so than CV...What you posted is a perfect example of using anecdotal data to create Hysteria...I also lost a work-associate a few years ago, yea he was 50 (which is far from a Senior-Citizen), exercise a lot and health nut (no preconditions), died from seasonal Flue, his wife was devastated.

https://www.health.com/condition/col...u-die-from-flu

I do agree that CV is a nasty-Bastard though, best to be avoided...But posting something like that would be the mirror image (if we lived with Alice in Wonderland) of me saying: "CV doesn't hurt old people with preconditions, that is all BS, look at Tom Hanks (>60, diabetes) and his wife, nothing happened to them outside a few sniffles".
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  #343  
Old 03-28-2020, 05:43 AM
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Being a USN-Vet and coming from a US-Navy Family (Dad WW2, Brother #3 20 years officer), I'm looking forward to the embarkation of the Hospital ship, USNS Comfort, today from Norfolk to NYC. My ship was stationed out of Norfolk in the 70's..The Hospital ship is a very impressive ship and a good move by POTUS to help the cause up there. Just the sight of that ship should start to bring emotional comfort. Extremely symbolic of how the Federal Government is throwing everything plus the kitchen sink at the enemy in this war.

I believe POTUS will be speaking in Norfolk at 1:00ET today for those interested - at least that is what the Fox "ticker-box" is saying. I am sure they will carry it live, the Fake-News? probably not.
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  #344  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:48 AM
RTK1 RTK1 is offline
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Don’t know if anyone mentioned this before, asking in a rhetorical manor, do we destroy our economy over this or do we let it run it’s course.....
We can’t shelter in place until a vaccine or treatment is discovered?????
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  #345  
Old 03-28-2020, 10:20 AM
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Don’t know if anyone mentioned this before, asking in a rhetorical manor, do we destroy our economy over this or do we let it run it’s course.....
We can’t shelter in place until a vaccine or treatment is discovered?????
We need to open it up unless we want a long depression which will make an opportunity for even more socialism...And practice the rules at the same time....

Mike Lindel, the "My-Pillow" guy/CEO, a BIG Trump supported, is doing just that, he is now making Masks in one of his factories instead of pillows. He will be pumping out 50,000 a day soon.

He has all his people wearing mask and the proper distances apart in the factory.

This is the American way, Entrepreneurial-Patriots, who instead of succumbing to fear and despair, get off their Butts and make a difference!

We will win this war in short order with the American Spirit!

(And it is fine if people make a few bucks along the way, we are not Communist :-))
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  #346  
Old 03-29-2020, 04:29 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
The original source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Same information. Exactly. From THE medical publication of record in the US. A doctor can say whatever he will on TV, withoutconsequence.. Reputations rise or fall on publications in the NEJM.
The same man, Dr. Fauci is now saying 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1
Quote:
The coronavirus outbreak could kill 100,000 to 200,000 Americans, the U.S. government’s top infectious-disease expert warned on Sunday as smoldering hotspots in nursing homes and a growing list of stricken cities heightened the sense of dread across the country.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, made the dire prediction of fatalities on CNN, adding that millions in the U.S. could become infected.
It's time some of you folks concede that this is a bit more than just a bad flu season. No?
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  #347  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
The same man, Dr. Fauci is now saying 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1


It's time some of you folks concede that this is a bit more than just a bad flu season. No?
I think Dr Fauci must be burning out. 2,000+ now deaths is a long way from 200,000 deaths. He really shouldn't say things like this, looks like the Toilet paper shortage will continue thanks to him.

I think your original estimates were in the millions and using a 12th century societal model, so we are orders of magnitude closer to flue, than anything you originally predicted.
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  #348  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:17 PM
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Fuci just stepped back from it on the conference just now...The 200,000 dead model assumes "we do nothing". In other words, it is a worthless model...Sounds like he was trying to get leverage over POTUS to keep the half-ass quarantine going till April 30.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-29-2020 at 05:22 PM.
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  #349  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:23 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
The same man, Dr. Fauci is now saying 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1


It's time some of you folks concede that this is a bit more than just a bad flu season. No?
There's only a few options...

- Disregard EVERYTHING DR Fauci saya, as its all over the place....

- Look at the context and source of what he says, when, and where- and analyze that information....

I don't doubt thath DR Fauci is an expert in his field. He's also a government employee, put front and center in mass media.

I put more stock in what he takes the time, thought, and effort to publish in the medical journal of record in the US, with supporting data and analytical process than a 1 paragraph soundbite that says "may" without any further data or information on how that conclusionwas developed...
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  #350  
Old 03-29-2020, 05:24 PM
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Fuci just stepped back from it on the conference just now...The 200,000 dead model assumes "we do nothing". In other words, it is a worthless model...Sounds like he was trying to get leverage over POTUS to keep the half-ass quarantine going till April 30.
Linky???
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