I'll say it - 1911Forum
1911Forum
Advertise Here
Forum   Reviews   Rules   Legal   Site Supporters & Donations   Advertise


Go Back   1911Forum > >

Notices


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-09-2020, 07:34 PM
K38 K38 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,032
I'll say it

If you do the numbers, the death toll is miniscule.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-09-2020, 07:52 PM
PatientWolf PatientWolf is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Raleigh, NC
Posts: 152
Does anyone have the data to compare the statistics of death rates from the flu in a bad flu year to the 2020 death rates of the flu plus covid-19?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-09-2020, 08:09 PM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: North Texas
Posts: 11,700
Without advocating one way or the other (for which I have no medical/infections diseases qualifications), I think the total death count from coronavirus is yet to be determined. As is the stopping point. Death tallies with several zeros after the first digit also tend to get attention, whether miniscule or not from certain ways of viewing it all.

Worldwide, the virus is just getting started in much of the world, including India, Russia, and the entire continents of Africa and South America. Deaths reported this far in these places are likely only a small percentage of what lays ahead.

Separate from the death tally, I don't know if the emergency room/ICU capacity limits and the stresses on medical staff can be disregarded in the calculus. IOW, the impact seems to be all hitting in a very short time span...a bottleneck problem for many medical professionals. I do understand that people could just be denied care and become part of a statistic that hopefully won't look so bad in the future...when we will have the benefit of hindsight.

Truly, I do hope it stops really soon. And again, I don't present myself as having predictive powers...one way or another.

Among the perspectives voiced by the most active Forum members in the coronavirus discussions (a round of +1911s), it's obvious that opinions differ somewhat significantly. I've mostly shied away from taking one side or another (or the middle) simply because of very limited expertise on the subject...I don't pretend to know what things and what death tallies will look like 12 months hence. But I've appreciated all contributions and they're generally each plausible and each presented in 100% sincere conviction, but each possibly dependent on things that I'm not certain we completely know at this time.

I'm also not certain that the death tallies are wholly independent of precautions taken...or not taken. I suspect that there might be a significant correlation, and on this point I'm going with President Trump. He seems to understand reasonable balances, without going off in some extreme direction. And I'll for sure be voting for four more years on Election Day.
__________________
NRA Benefactor Life Member

"Freedom is only a temporary thing unless it is backed by the blunt capability and willingness to fight back against evil with sufficient arms." -- Myself

Last edited by chrysanthemum; 04-09-2020 at 08:42 PM.
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
  #4  
Old 04-09-2020, 09:01 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Rural VA
Posts: 22,242
This sounds like a pretty well rationalized response.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrysanthemum View Post
Without advocating one way or the other (for which I have no medical/infections diseases qualifications), I think the total death count from coronavirus is yet to be determined. As is the stopping point. Death tallies with several zeros after the first digit also tend to get attention, whether miniscule or not from certain ways of viewing it all.

Worldwide, the virus is just getting started in much of the world, including India, Russia, and the entire continents of Africa and South America. Deaths reported this far in these places are likely only a small percentage of what lays ahead.

Separate from the death tally, I don't know if the emergency room/ICU capacity limits and the stresses on medical staff can be disregarded in the calculus. IOW, the impact seems to be all hitting in a very short time span...a bottleneck problem for many medical professionals. I do understand that people could just be denied care and become part of a statistic that hopefully won't look so bad in the future...when we will have the benefit of hindsight.

Truly, I do hope it stops really soon. And again, I don't present myself as having predictive powers...one way or another.

Among the perspectives voiced by the most active Forum members in the coronavirus discussions (a round of +1911s), it's obvious that opinions differ somewhat significantly. I've mostly shied away from taking one side or another (or the middle) simply because of very limited expertise on the subject...I don't pretend to know what things and what death tallies will look like 12 months hence. But I've appreciated all contributions and they're generally each plausible and each presented in 100% sincere conviction, but each possibly dependent on things that I'm not certain we completely know at this time.

I'm also not certain that the death tallies are wholly independent of precautions taken...or not taken. I suspect that there might be a significant correlation, and on this point I'm going with President Trump. He seems to understand reasonable balances, without going off in some extreme direction. And I'll for sure be voting for four more years on Election Day.
Who would have thunk it even possible?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-09-2020, 10:08 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Rocky mountain area
Posts: 683
Quote:
Originally Posted by K38 View Post
If you do the numbers, the death toll is miniscule.
Until or unless it kills someone important to you......hopefully that doesn’t happen.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:10 AM
subscriber subscriber is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 5,192
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
Until or unless it kills someone important to you.....
How many people are going to off themselves because they lost their income, and can no longer provide for their families? How many are going to find themselves in crisis when their retirement investment values have fallen through the floor. Directly, and due to inflation caused by giving away money that does not exist?

How many doctors and nurses have laid off, because most non-covid-19 medical work has been suspended? Research just the latter. Now, going forwards, how will that affect people with medical problems, not related to covid-19?

"If it saves just one life" is the gun controllers argument. Usually made by people surrounded by armed bodyguards...
__________________
You can't reason people out of a position they didn't reason their way into...
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:27 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,240
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatientWolf View Post
Does anyone have the data to compare the statistics of death rates from the flu in a bad flu year to the 2020 death rates of the flu plus covid-19?
Everything you may want to know:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Dig around, there's all sorts of information available. To directly answer your question, on another page, CDC says that the flu mortality this year is just under 8%, based on mortality/ lab confirmed cases.

If you want to take a big picture look at this, look at mortality relative to an entire population group. Spanish flu killed 5% of the entire world population. Pneumonic plague killed 30-50% of the population of Europe.
SARS-CoV-2 isn't even in the same league....
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams

Last edited by wccountryboy; 04-10-2020 at 08:40 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:27 AM
K38 K38 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,032
100, 000 deaths worldwide as of today. World population = 8 billion. Do the math: Is this worth ruining the economy and severely curtailing our freedom? Why not isolate those who seem to be at greater risk, the old and the sick?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:34 AM
PEF PEF is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Roswell, GA
Posts: 46
It's time to reevaluate the shutdown. It's clear the models they had in late March were inaccurate, and now that they are being revised (look at the IHME history), it's clear the models overestimated the deaths.

We have a 20+ trillion dollar economy on hold, and people are losing jobs. We'll do what we can to save lives, but we at some point we need to get going again. The stress from of shutdown will impact families more severely as the shutdown continues, which will have its own toll.

I don't have a problem with the shutdown based on the information we had at the time. But now that the information continues to change, and the main model is proving to be unreliable, it's time to reconsider the strategy. We cannot simply continue without question when the underlying assumptions upon which we made the decision are now known to be very inaccurate.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:47 AM
RetiredRod's Avatar
RetiredRod RetiredRod is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Springfield, Missouri
Posts: 14,351
Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Everything you may want to know:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Dig around, there's all sorts of information available. To directly answer your question, on another page, CDC says that the flu mortality this year is just under 8%, based on mortality/ lab confirmed cases.

If you want to take a big picture look at this, look at mortality relative to an entire population group. Spanish flu killed 5% of the entire world population. Pneumonic plague killed 30-50% of the population of Europe.
SARS-CoV-2 isn't even in the same league....
Serious question - not being snarky. I'm no history major but could you be referring to the Bubonic Plague? I've not heard of the other.
__________________


NRA Life Member
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:58 AM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 6,786
Quote:
Originally Posted by K38 View Post
If you do the numbers, the death toll is miniscule.
And hopefully they stay that way. They also, would not be that minuscule in the absence of what we’ve been doing, because cv19 has clearly found a weak spot in our healthcare system.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:05 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: South
Posts: 2,940
The news media has taken this thing and run with it. They are the impetus. They are perfectly happy ruining the economy and terrifying the timid majority. All with the intention of derailing President Trump, boosting their ratings, and making the networks rich. They love it. They get to constantly be in the limelight.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:08 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,240
Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredRod View Post
Serious question - not being snarky. I'm no history major but could you be referring to the Bubonic Plague? I've not heard of the other.
You are correct. They are essentially one in the same, caused by thebsame bacterium. It is my understanding is that common usage notwithstanding, pneumonic, developed from bubonic plague was the primary cause of mortality.
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:22 AM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 6,786
^^Theyre not one in the same^^
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:34 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 11,240
They are caused by the same bactiria. The only difference is in the location of infection, and it was not uncommon for a bubonic (primary in the lymph nodes) infection to migrate to the lungs- a pneumonic infection.
__________________
I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain. ~ John Adams
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:39 AM
f1racefan f1racefan is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: western Kentucky
Posts: 723
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradsvette View Post
The news media has taken this thing and run with it. They are the impetus. They are perfectly happy ruining the economy and terrifying the timid majority. All with the intention of derailing President Trump, boosting their ratings, and making the networks rich. They love it. They get to constantly be in the limelight.
Let me get this straight. So the president whose favorite term is "fake news" is letting the fake news media lead him around by the nose? I'm not buying that.

As far as the economy, this crisis has been devastating. But saying the number of deaths is "minuscule" is all fine and good until you or a family member happens to be one of the ones making up that minuscule number.

If anyone wants to ignore the precautions and get back to their normal life, I have no problem with that. So long as you don't endanger anyone else. Your life is yours to do with as you please, even if you have it significantly shortened by contracting the virus. But, as many have said, the odds appear to be in your favor.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:48 AM
Lorenzo Lorenzo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 544
Quote:
Originally Posted by K38 View Post
100, 000 deaths worldwide as of today. World population = 8 billion. Do the math ...
Total deaths might be "only" 100k but it's growing exponentially. The virus spreads incredibly rapidly and unlike the flu people can be contagious for weeks without showing any symptoms.

Decisive measures are necessary to end this before it reaches millions.

Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:50 AM
rkammer rkammer is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 820
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatientWolf View Post
Does anyone have the data to compare the statistics of death rates from the flu in a bad flu year to the 2020 death rates of the flu plus covid-19?
Here is the data that shows COVID-19 is at least 10 times worse than seasonal flu.

National stats from CDC for 2019 FLU:
Deaths vs total cases of the flu - 0.1%
Deaths vs hospitalized cases - 7%

Florida Dept of Health to date COVID-19 (couldn't find CDC stats)
Deaths vs Total cases - 2.3%
Deaths vs hospitalized cases - 16%

I'd say that qualifies as needing the extreme measures we need to take to limit the spread.
__________________
Regards,
Ray K
Mount Dora, Florida
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:52 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: North Texas
Posts: 11,700
As to Trump/media discussion, mainstream media, for the most, is attempting to beat down Trump. They've been at it for quite some time.

And at the moment, Trump is holding his own quite well.

The lone remaining barrier to four more years is now staffed by 78-year old (and showing it more each day with incoherent sentences, etc.) Joe Biden.

---

As evident in other posts, I'm personally concerned with both the medical/mortality consequences and the economic consequences. With my background, I'm as aware as anyone of the horrific financial consequences (including my own retirement assets), and that it might not be so easy to "turn the switch back on". On the other side, I don't have any expertise on the medical/mortality data, but I sense enough reason for concern to take considerable personal precautions. Difficult days, for sure.

----

An as-yet little discussed economic consequence is the likelihood that many baby boomers will not be re-hired, as employers will tend to re-hire those under 45 first. And many of those folks are not financially prepared for an early forced retirement... unemployment pay is not an effective answer for those folks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinry.../#496c749419bf
__________________
NRA Benefactor Life Member

"Freedom is only a temporary thing unless it is backed by the blunt capability and willingness to fight back against evil with sufficient arms." -- Myself

Last edited by chrysanthemum; 04-10-2020 at 10:38 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:19 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: South
Posts: 2,940
Quote:
Originally Posted by f1racefan View Post
Let me get this straight. So the president whose favorite term is "fake news" is letting the fake news media lead him around by the nose? I'm not buying that.

As far as the economy, this crisis has been devastating. But saying the number of deaths is "minuscule" is all fine and good until you or a family member happens to be one of the ones making up that minuscule number.

If anyone wants to ignore the precautions and get back to their normal life, I have no problem with that. So long as you don't endanger anyone else. Your life is yours to do with as you please, even if you have it significantly shortened by contracting the virus. But, as many have said, the odds appear to be in your favor.
I'm saying it's been blown out of proportion by the news media. But how else can the President respond? Guys like you would be all up in arms that POTUS isn't doing enough.

P.S. There's no passing in F1. Other than the start, it's one big bore. The race might as well be called "qualifying."
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:26 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: North Texas
Posts: 11,700
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradsvette View Post
I'm saying it's been blown out of proportion by the news media. But how else can the President respond? Guys like you would be all up in arms that POTUS isn't doing enough.

P.S. There's no passing in F1. Other than the start, it's one big bore. The race might as well be called "qualifying."
+1911. And +1911 for President Trump.

(F1 does have the problem you've cited, especially on circuits such as Monaco. I've still retained a mechanical interest in the sport and watch the races, but yes, there are problems with the oftentimes alligator queue line on race day).

Brad, someday maybe you could let us know what aircraft you piloted in your flying career. If commercial, especially if 777 or 767, who knows, I might have been one of your passengers, given that I logged over three million lifetime miles.
__________________
NRA Benefactor Life Member

"Freedom is only a temporary thing unless it is backed by the blunt capability and willingness to fight back against evil with sufficient arms." -- Myself

Last edited by chrysanthemum; 04-10-2020 at 10:31 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:40 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: South
Posts: 2,940
Well, thank you for asking. Military: primarily the F14 Tomcat, and other assorted Navy trainers leading up to that. Then got off active duty, swapped Services to the ANG and flew A10s. Civilian: 727 (FE, FO, and Capt.), DC10 (FO), MD11 (Capt.), and 777 (Capt.). The last 10 years before retirement flying the 777, all international. Retired Dec. 31, 2018.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:45 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: North Texas
Posts: 11,700
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradsvette View Post
Well, thank you for asking. Military: primarily the F14 Tomcat, and other assorted Navy trainers leading up to that. Then got off active duty, swapped Services to the ANG and flew A10s. Civilian: 727 (FE, FO, and Capt.), DC10 (FO), MD11 (Capt.), and 777 (Capt.). The last 10 years before retirement flying the 777, all international. Retired Dec. 31, 2018.
I was likely a passenger on one of those 777 flights. Possibly years earlier on one of the other aircraft.

Navy pilots are the best... taking-off and landing in by far the toughest conditions. And necessarily developing a sense of what to do in event of trouble without having to find and read through instructions in a flight manual.
__________________
NRA Benefactor Life Member

"Freedom is only a temporary thing unless it is backed by the blunt capability and willingness to fight back against evil with sufficient arms." -- Myself

Last edited by chrysanthemum; 04-10-2020 at 10:59 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:49 AM
bradsvette bradsvette is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: South
Posts: 2,940
Thanks!!! I humbly agree.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 04-10-2020, 10:54 AM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Rocky mountain area
Posts: 683
Quote:
Originally Posted by subscriber View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
Until or unless it kills someone important to you.....
How many people are going to off themselves because they lost their income, and can no longer provide for their families? How many are going to find themselves in crisis when their retirement investment values have fallen through the floor. Directly, and due to inflation caused by giving away money that does not exist?

How many doctors and nurses have laid off, because most non-covid-19 medical work has been suspended? Research just the latter. Now, going forwards, how will that affect people with medical problems, not related to covid-19?

"If it saves just one life" is the gun controllers argument. Usually made by people surrounded by armed bodyguards...
Not remotely related to my comment. Put your words in someone else’s mouth.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:31 PM.


NOTICE TO USERS OF THIS SITE: By continuing to use this site, you certify that you have read and agree to abide by the Legal Terms of Use. All information, data, text or other materials ("Content") posted to this site by any users are the sole responsibility of those users. 1911Forum does not guarantee the accuracy, integrity, or quality of such Content.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright 2015 1911Forum.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved