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  #201  
Old 03-23-2020, 09:58 PM
SteedGun SteedGun is offline
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OK. Here is a live site with numbers. As far as I can tell looking at my own state and asking about my friend's state the numbers look accurate. Go figure what you need from this and be sure to look at yesterdays numbers as well. You can also click on World, Country, and region.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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  #202  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:01 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
The logic is sound, but restsnon one critical-and fatal- assumption.
I don't doubt for a moment that the professionals at CDC have a very comprehensive understand of what is occurring.
I don't believe for a moment that the conclusions and numbers being pushed out align with that understanding. Propagating a doom and gloom message serves the public interest far more so than the actual truth does.
Using simple, 2 factor, grade school math illuates this point. They KNOW, without a doubt, that infection rates are orders of magnitude greater than confirmed cases. However, pushing those numbers doesn't facilitate the desired public response. So they push out simple, crude information IOT increase the fear factor...
This is my take as well.
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  #203  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:06 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is offline
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" A brilliant researcher in a lab may develop "profound" conclusions.

Clearly the wrong term to use here. But what I think that you are trying to get at is that. The people that really do know about this stuff. And have a microscope, as well as being able to use it. They have a very different prediction for our new world than you have.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Not an expert in all of them by any stretch, only a couple, but I do have a working know of most of those fields, and use them regularly in my professional life. That's the hazard of specialization- one views the world through a colored lens, in line with his expertise and field of study. Clear vision comes from a breadth and depth of knowledge and experience.

The brilliant researcher in a lab may develop profound conclusions- that don't hold up in the real world... a holistic, unbiased approach generally produces better results....
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  #204  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:09 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is offline
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This gets my vote!

Quote:
Originally Posted by magazineman View Post
I think logic dictates this:

Trust the most educated & knowledgeable experts in the field.

Or become one of the most educated & knowledgeable expert in the field & trust yourself.

But to cast doubts on these most educated & knowledgeable experts from a position of FAR less understanding, expertise, and experience is not logical.

It's folly.

"Whoa there, Jerry Miculek, you're doing it all wrong. Let ME school you on how to shoot a revolver"
It is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better. If you want to be hospitalized for weeks and have reduced lung function after that. Assuming of course that you live to tell about it. By all means, let the good times roll.
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  #205  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:13 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is offline
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Certainly this post has a lot of relevance here.

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Originally Posted by Striker2237 View Post
And german cars are the best designed in the world.
I guess that you ran out of gas elsewhere.
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  #206  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:36 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
I guess that you ran out of gas elsewhere.
Sarcastic retort so I don't have to repeat a point the recipient clear doesn't want to understand.
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  #207  
Old 03-23-2020, 10:39 PM
The War Wagon The War Wagon is online now
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CA now locked down



Yep. The homeless & the ILLEGAL FOREIGN INVADERS now have free RUN of the state!
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  #208  
Old 03-23-2020, 11:16 PM
shooter59 shooter59 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by INV136 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooter59 View Post
Medical, financial, food trips not included.

Let’s not create fires just because we’re bored boys and girls. He’s talking about no public gatherings, no unnecessary trips.

It sucks, but this thing is a political football only if we make it. Which given the circumstances would be pretty small minded.
Doesn't sound like a real "lock down."
Exactly. Because at this point, it’s not. Despite those crowing yo the contrary.
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  #209  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:21 AM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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Lets look at the bright side. For millions of years Mother Nature has always been able to thin the herd whenever necessary, using a multitude of tools. And she almost always focuses on getting rid of the stupid and the unlucky...that way they never become lawyers or airplane pilots. It isn't foolproof and many of the stupid and unlucky fall through the cracks, but Mother Nature doesn't worry about being perfect, just effective. We are now in the midst of a large biological storm, the cause of which we can all discuss if/when we get out of it alive. But for now, our focus should be on keeping our tiny and leaky little ship afloat. To that end, we have chosen a Captain. However there are many on board, and in the crew, that are pushing their own agenda because they value their opinions more than the life of those on the ship. We would not be wrong to call that mutiny...or treason.
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  #210  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:30 AM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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https://www.propublica.org/article/c...-united-states

Read this. The stats can't be correct since they only test people who are more likely to have serious issues, they are also sending strong mixed messages on what exactly they want to do.

The other troublesome subtext is forcing people to conform to mass testing and confinement. Abandon all semblance of freedom in the name of a greater good, sounds kinda similar to something no?

I never said people should be stupid or if they had 19 to not stay away from others for a while, I am just saying and have been saying the response given to this is totally out of line with reality.
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  #211  
Old 03-24-2020, 06:08 AM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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C.A.'s Morning Editorial

They need to open up the economy as soon as possible...Unless we want to have most of the population and business on the Federal-Payroll for months and months. Which I don't think is a very good idea - think of the corruption, fraud, etc. of at least a % of all the new Federal-Dependents.

The death rate right now in the US is about 1%, or one in 100 who get it statistically will die. Although this is sad and not pretty it has to be weighted against the pending economic disaster of keeping the economy on "ice". And this 1% rate will likely get a lot better as we gain more knowledge of the best ways to treat it as we wait for the vaccine. As these methods get refined, we will likely find the death rate is on par (more or less) with seasonal flue in this country.

The most efficient approach to achieve this aim would be to provide methods and tools for those at most risk to stay healthy under an open economy. N95 masks, rubber gloves, and special considerations for 60+/preconditions when they go out in public so as to avoid crowds. Some basic training on "avoidance" would also be beneficial. I can teach some of these :-) as I've been dodging pathogens (esp seasonal flue for 13 years now).

Along the lines of the above, a very disproportional amount of death is coming from Nursing Home. This area needs to be address with better "Best-Practices" training and what not. I don't have any knowledge about this so I'll leave it to others to comment.

The government can't save everyone, and trying to do so will be an extremely inefficient approach (and may lead to economic disaster for some time). Focus on the "fat-rabbits" (see Pareto Analysis) as the saying goes, those most at risk, the segment who has the highest death rate by far, and watch the overall death-rate plummet.

This is a win-win-strategy, economy is open up, stocks recover, and those most at risk have significant risk mitigation methods and tools...(Unfortunately, right now we have the opposite, the Hysteria, End-of-Worlder's-panic and forced quarantines have created a situation which raises the risk of those most at risk (rather than lowers it). It is quite ironic, with everyone sitting at home, hording, and crashing public places like food stores, it is now a much higher risk for 60+ with preconditions to go food shopping even at 7:00AM on a weekday. And even if you go one still can't get basic necessities.)

Lets open up the economy, get people back to work, and focus on those most at risk with better processes to reduce their risk!

Related: UPS is no longer going to require a customer to use that "infected" pen to sign for packages, the agent will just confirm who you are verbally. I haven't touched one of those pens for 10+ years, I always ask the agent to sign for me and on the rare occasion they will not, I make them wait until I can put rubber gloves on...I applaud UPS for this move, all these little things can add up to help our cause.

C.A.
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-24-2020 at 02:19 PM.
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  #212  
Old 03-24-2020, 06:53 AM
Nitro.45 Nitro.45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The War Wagon View Post
Yep. The homeless & the ILLEGAL FOREIGN INVADERS now have free RUN of the state!
The media must have been warned not to show what is really going on in LA so as not to spark riots and looting in a dozen other major cities. Atlanta only needs a nudge to get going!
I can almost see the smoke from here...
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  #213  
Old 03-24-2020, 08:48 AM
Cranky Yankee Cranky Yankee is offline
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The only panic and riots I've seen have been over toilet paper. With a 213% increase in demand over last year, they need to ramp up production 213% to compensate. Otherwise we'll be in a permanent shortage until this thing ends, which nobody knows when that will be, hence the hoarding and panic.
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  #214  
Old 03-24-2020, 11:02 AM
Josh Ashman Josh Ashman is offline
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Give it 6 weeks and we'll see. My guess is the "doom and gloomers" will all feel pretty sheepish when the world hasn't burnt down and life is back to relative levels of normal. That said me and mine are all practicing social distancing and will continue to do so. Hand washing and other good hygiene were already SOP. It's entirely possible to think the panic response is completely overblown and to still follow the guidelines being given by the medical professionals.
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  #215  
Old 03-24-2020, 11:37 AM
magazineman magazineman is online now
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For nearly every news item or event I see discussed here,

Doesn't matter what it is. Good or bad.

There will be allegations of conspiracy claiming that the story is Liberal fake news and/or a Government plot invented to needlessly SCARE us or to falsely PLACATE / REASSURE us.

I've heard BOTH that statistics are faked to prevent panic and also that they are faked to frighten the masses.

It's predictable. Just name a hypothetical story, good or bad. Like "ketchup found to cure cancer" or "ketchup found to cause cancer" for example.

Both could be dissected & reverse-engineered to be evidence of, essentially, the Man trying to keep the brother down.

Because conspiracies 100% ALWAYS (& I rarely say always) have that one necessary component. That Secret Sauce. It's like how a dessert, no matter what kind, must have sugar.

It MUST be the rich &/or powerful manipulating /screwing the common man. That's the needed, sweet ingredient.

As long as it has THAT component, it will get some traction. No matter how absurd the premise.

Last edited by magazineman; 03-24-2020 at 11:41 AM.
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  #216  
Old 03-24-2020, 12:14 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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Nobody is suggesting that the stats are being "faked"... only that the numbers chosen are inaccurate and fall well outside accepted disease tracking methodology. I don't think that those managing the information flow are that ignorant. The conclusion: misleading information is being propagated for a purpose.

The only way to ger a 1.5% mortality rate is to constrain your figures to only confirmed cases, even though we know that the rate of infection is orders of magnitude higher.

If you apply the same, poor, method to this years flu:
390k "confirmed " cases, based on hospitalization numbers. 23k fatalities. The mortality rate- 5.8%....

Thats apples to apples, using the same methodology. You can't use different methods simply to produce the answer you want...
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  #217  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:09 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Nobody is suggesting that the stats are being "faked"... only that the numbers chosen are inaccurate and fall well outside accepted disease tracking methodology. I don't think that those managing the information flow are that ignorant. The conclusion: misleading information is being propagated for a purpose.

The only way to ger a 1.5% mortality rate is to constrain your figures to only confirmed cases, even though we know that the rate of infection is orders of magnitude higher.

If you apply the same, poor, method to this years flu:
390k "confirmed " cases, based on hospitalization numbers. 23k fatalities. The mortality rate- 5.8%....

Thats apples to apples, using the same methodology. You can't use different methods simply to produce the answer you want...
... and what are your qualifications?

Did you ever take a course in Statistics and Probability? It's actually a course in mathematics that comes after completion of differential equations and multi-variable calculus, and linear algebra. Its one of the more difficult math specialization, and often part of some engineering and science curriculum. I ask because many of these epidemiologists are required to take courses in statistics and probability in their specific microbiology discipline. They have modeled pathogen spread in populations using advance computer models. They take into account numerous variables, including how the pathogen jumps from organism to organism, vectors, population density, existing immunity, etc, etc. This isn't some 8th grade guessing game.

It's not too far from when a meteorologists predict a storm path with computer modeling, days or weeks in advance...sometimes they are dead on, and sometimes they are wrong, but they also predict amount of possible error in their forecast based on ever changing weather patterns. They have been remarkably accurate in the past 10 years.

In any event, I place stronger faith in the prediction models of people who specialize in their respective field, and are recognized in their field than random people on the internet forums.
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  #218  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:19 PM
combat auto combat auto is online now
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One would have to live in the Land of OZ not to be able to see how CNN and MSNBC are sensationalizing this (fox to some degree also, but fox doesn't have the Trump blame game going on). For goodness sake, this morning CNN was showing the family photos of a bunch of people who recently died from CV. You know, the same way the do it for the mass shootings.

Gee, do they do that for the 30,000-60,000 people who die from the regular flue each year?
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-24-2020 at 02:08 PM.
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  #219  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:21 PM
Slaughter Slaughter is offline
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We moved to the sticks a long time ago. The downside is now that the Governor of the PRC has shut down the entire state (and all gun shops and gun ranges) the police are surveying the BLM shooting areas. No arrests but they DO listen and WILL give a warning. ME? I'm part of a 12-step program. The first step is admitting I have a problem. My problem is they're empty and I've taken the first step:

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  #220  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:37 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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I didn't say a word about systems modeling this thing- thats an entirely different animal. Don't read more into what I'm discussing than is there...

All I'm talking about is how do we calculate mortality rates. There are different ways to do this, and each paints a different picture. None are particularly complex. Applying different methods to different diseases, and comparing the results is intellectually dishonest.
If we accept that SARS-CoV-2 has a 1.5% mortality rate, then we must apply the same method (fatalities/ confirmed cases) to influenza if we are going to compare the results.

Thats all I'm saying, no more, no less.
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  #221  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:50 PM
Boge Boge is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combat auto View Post
...They need to open up the economy as soon as possible...Unless we want to have most of the population and business on the Federal-Payroll for months and months...
You just described Kalifornia pre-Coronavirus.
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  #222  
Old 03-24-2020, 01:57 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
I didn't say a word about systems modeling this thing- thats an entirely different animal. Don't read more into what I'm discussing than is there...

All I'm talking about is how do we calculate mortality rates. There are different ways to do this, and each paints a different picture. None are particularly complex. Applying different methods to different diseases, and comparing the results is intellectually dishonest.
If we accept that SARS-CoV-2 has a 1.5% mortality rate, then we must apply the same method (fatalities/ confirmed cases) to influenza if we are going to compare the results.

Thats all I'm saying, no more, no less.
Yes you are! You are precisely doing that, using your own style of countryboy modeling. You are disputing the mortality rate using God knows what science and pitting it against the CDC and other credentialed sources.
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  #223  
Old 03-24-2020, 02:25 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is online now
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CDC themselves state that 85% (using whatever model they have) of cases are asymptomatic: therefore never going to be "confirmed". So, for every 15 "confirmed" cases, there are ~85 more that won't be tested, or confimed, because symptoms don't warrant it.
Yet, when calculating mortality, only "confirmed" cases are used. This, given CDCs own date, produces an artificially high mortality rate. It leaves 4 out of 5 cases unaccounted for...

If you can't see the flaw in the process, I can't help that...
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  #224  
Old 03-24-2020, 02:59 PM
Striker2237 Striker2237 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PolymerMan View Post
... and what are your qualifications?

Did you ever take a course in Statistics and Probability? It's actually a course in mathematics that comes after completion of differential equations and multi-variable calculus, and linear algebra. Its one of the more difficult math specialization, and often part of some engineering and science curriculum. I ask because many of these epidemiologists are required to take courses in statistics and probability in their specific microbiology discipline. They have modeled pathogen spread in populations using advance computer models. They take into account numerous variables, including how the pathogen jumps from organism to organism, vectors, population density, existing immunity, etc, etc. This isn't some 8th grade guessing game.

It's not too far from when a meteorologists predict a storm path with computer modeling, days or weeks in advance...sometimes they are dead on, and sometimes they are wrong, but they also predict amount of possible error in their forecast based on ever changing weather patterns. They have been remarkably accurate in the past 10 years.

In any event, I place stronger faith in the prediction models of people who specialize in their respective field, and are recognized in their field than random people on the internet forums.
Using what data? All the examples you gave have loads of sensing equipment and decades of model development on hand.

This current issue is a few months old and we can't even report cases accurately, that leaves a lot of input values to be assumed or given a highly advanced guess as to what they would look like judging from diseases we have enough data on to have well developed models. As it stands their predictions are not able to give any definitive answer so they are defaulting to worst case due to lack of input data.
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  #225  
Old 03-24-2020, 03:09 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Striker2237 View Post
Using what data? All the examples you gave have loads of sensing equipment and decades of model development on hand.

This current issue is a few months old and we can't even report cases accurately, that leaves a lot of input values to be assumed or given a highly advanced guess as to what they would look like judging from diseases we have enough data on to have well developed models. As it stands their predictions are not able to give any definitive answer so they are defaulting to worst case due to lack of input data.
I haven't given any examples.

I'm merely stating that the CDC and the world wide epidemiological community have far greater knowledge on the morbidity and mortality rate of this pathogen than you or I have. Secondly you don't know how old or current the models are that the CDC is basing its projections from best case to worst case, and how often they adjust their models, or what variables they treat as unknowns.

Too many people just want to dismiss this as overblown. It could be overblown but we will not know for months and perhaps years when this pathogen can be further analyzed. But it the meantime, I will prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

It is just that there could be hundred of variables in an epidemiological projection that it isn't just comparing the seasonal flu numbers with this epidemic. It is not that simple.

Last edited by PolymerMan; 03-24-2020 at 03:11 PM.
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