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  #1  
Old 05-16-2017, 08:30 AM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Urban Displacement

I know this is a can of worms and would be very dependent on a lot of circumstances and situations, but what do you expect would happen if a something bad happened in the United States and electricity was gone for a week - lets say no relief in sight, no communications. (I don't believe this is possible, but let's say it happens). What would happen to all those people in those big cities. I think a lot of them will stay put... Where would the ones who left go (I am assuming to rural friends and family) How far? Discussion.
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Old 05-16-2017, 09:42 AM
Black Jack Black Jack is offline
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Originally Posted by HarryO45 View Post
(I don't believe this is possible, but let's say it happens).
What you are describing sounds an awful lot like Katrina. Something bad happened (Katrina), the entire region suffered massive outages and loss of civil services for an extended period of time. A bunch of people came in and said "we're from the Government and we're here to help".

Well, the results were a very mixed bag of good and bad. There were tremendous abuses committed by those who were "helping" and most of those who depended on government assistance to get through it, suffered greatly. However, even as bad as it was for them, most of them did at least survive, which they would not have without that help.

On the other hand, those who were even half way prepared did just fine, until the government forced their helping hand on them. Forced evacuations of some who were doing fine forced them into much worse situations than they were in on they own. Confiscation of guns and other supplies forced people, who were doing nothing wrong and didn't need help, into a position where they ended up needing help that the government was not able to efficiently provide.

The ones that fared the best were the ones that were able to leave the area all together and not return until things settled back down, several months later.

End result of the "government help" is that some areas, even to this day, have still not recovered.
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Old 05-16-2017, 12:57 PM
Vos Parate Vos Parate is offline
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Nationwide for a week? Prepare for a real S$#^ Show.
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  #4  
Old 05-16-2017, 03:40 PM
Rock185 Rock185 is online now
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Harry, I believe what you suggest is possible, at least regionally. I would think the results in large urban areas would be something like the '77 New York blackout, but exponentially worse. This due to the longer outage period and wider affected area.

Not to worry though. Government officials unable to effectively deal with the myriad issues arising, would use available resources to confiscate firearms. I think we have seen that somewhere before......
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  #5  
Old 05-16-2017, 05:04 PM
Russ Jackson Russ Jackson is offline
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If the power went out across the country. Panic would start just about immediately. The animals would come out of the woodwork and stores would be looted in hours. Then the animals would move towards the nice areas. Traffic would be stopped immediately and four wheel traffic as we know it would be over. Hopefully the good ones would band together and claim their turf. Some areas would work. Others would be run over by mobs. Find a way to play dead for a while. Trust nobody. Hide your food as best as possible. Go where they had already picked apart.
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  #6  
Old 05-16-2017, 09:28 PM
Andyk Andyk is online now
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2011 tornados did a lot of damage in my area. Power was out for a week. But you could drive 30 miles and get stuff if you had a car and gas. We had very little problems. I really think it just depends on where you are. NY or LA forget about it. Smaller areas may do ok for a while.
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Old 05-16-2017, 09:53 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Offhand I would have to guess.

That it might upset the exchange rate between paper currency and tangible goods, especially food and water.
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Old 05-16-2017, 10:02 PM
mosteve mosteve is offline
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If it was long term, I think it would be mass chaos, and the looting and murdering would slowly move outward from the cities and suburbs, we live six miles from a small town and 50 from the city, and I think in a few days we would see people snooping and sneaking around. No one can watch all the stuff, all the time! There would be a lot of bad stuff coming.
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Old 05-17-2017, 01:53 AM
Redcoat3340 Redcoat3340 is offline
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This is just what I am expecting if The Big One (a 9+ quake) hits in the Seattle, WA area. The state is totally unprepared to do anything; roads, bridges, electricity would be out for months, hospitals kaput, EMS non-existant, and food gone in a week.

Of course for Seattle, the worst blow would be the loss of "smart" cell phones, texting, and social media. Millenials here would be slitting their wrists in despair in a matter of days.

Which is why we've modestly stocked up on food, water, and ammo. We're in the 'burbs but there are a lot of juicy targets between us and the city. Not sure about the neighbors though.
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  #10  
Old 05-17-2017, 08:57 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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If such an event were truely nationwide, for a week or so, things could get unpleasant, but I wouldn't expect widespread looting, violance, and marauding. Between LE, NG, and RA troops, govenments have the capability to control both movements and behaviors of the bulk of the populace. So long as basic needs are met, relative calm will prevail.
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  #11  
Old 05-17-2017, 12:37 PM
Taxed2death Taxed2death is offline
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Originally Posted by Rock185 View Post
Harry, I believe what you suggest is possible, at least regionally. I would think the results in large urban areas would be something like the '77 New York blackout, but exponentially worse. This due to the longer outage period and wider affected area.

Not to worry though. Government officials unable to effectively deal with the myriad issues arising, would use available resources to confiscate firearms. I think we have seen that somewhere before......
I think everyone learned a bit from Katrina, including the general public. I suspect that, after witnessing the abuses of power in southern Louisiana in the aftermath of Katrina, Joe American will not be quite so compliant as those in NORCO were if the government were to again try to confiscate firearms and supplies as they did back then.
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  #12  
Old 05-17-2017, 01:09 PM
Oldfut808 Oldfut808 is offline
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Happened here in Hawaii not too long ago.
Our problem is geographical isolation.
Tough to get supply trucks over the ocean.
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  #13  
Old 05-17-2017, 02:02 PM
Sledzep01 Sledzep01 is online now
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A week? whether it is Atlanta (City nearest me) or all of the country I think that the people who are not actively prepared (at all) would stay put. Many places where people work have backup power. All radio and TV stations do so the word would get out to stay put. It would not be like Katrina where they were in imminent peril (flooding) so there would be less panic.
All Cell towers have backup power and all land lines (what few there are) are also powered by the telco and would still work until the generators ran out of fuel.
So the first days would be scary but not full anarchy.
I believe the further you are out of the city the better it will be. Neighbors you know and trust are usually helpful. Especially in the short term.
Now GA is filled with weapons, especially in the suburbs of the city and rural areas.
Is the left leaning city fully armed? not sure, but the punks would be lazy and start their mayhem local to where they are comfortable. Once they started to move out of the city it would get very dangerous for them. If it lasted longer I am sure there would be towns further north that would block the roads with the Sheriff's permission band together and hold out.
Up in the rural areas people know who lives there, others would be buried there.

But in the end the apathy of the people to take personal responsibility for themselves (wherever they live) would be there own undoing. most would go to the shelters they were ordered to go to. if it did not improve most would die there for one reason or another.



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  #14  
Old 05-17-2017, 04:00 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Sledzep01 View Post
A week? whether it is Atlanta (City nearest me) or all of the country I think that the people who are not actively prepared (at all) would stay put. Many places where people work have backup power. All radio and TV stations do so the word would get out to stay put. It would not be like Katrina where they were in imminent peril (flooding) so there would be less panic.


Sled
Sled, OP here, I said, a week with no communication. I also said a the entire US... so I am thinking folks comparing it to Katrina is ridiculous (not that you did). If you remember Katrina the locals saw hundreds of helicopters and resources from all over the United States (lots of hope). It was really a small area and the resources of the entire nation. If even the Southeast was effected...National resources would be scarce, but I said the entire country.

You bring up some very good points about cell towers and backup generators. But I am wondering even after four days how many cell phones will have a charge. How many people will have access to the generators. How many cars will be broken into just to charge a cell phone. I think all cities would be differnt, but I think the psychological effect of masses of people with uncertainty would take a toll within five days.

I really started this thread because of several other threads in the DP subforum, one being "Hunting as a Survival Skill", and in that topic members are saying that folks from the cities are gonna marauder themselves into the forests and kill all the game. I found that unbelievable and I was just wondering what others thought about urban areas and folks leaving them?...how far are they gonna move?, how are they gonna move?, with what purpose?

I think food and maybe water is gonna be a real issue for many people after about three days.

Last edited by HarryO45; 05-17-2017 at 04:49 PM.
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  #15  
Old 05-17-2017, 04:45 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
If such an event were truely nationwide, for a week or so, things could get unpleasant, but I wouldn't expect widespread looting, violance, and marauding. Between LE, NG, and RA troops, govenments have the capability to control both movements and behaviors of the bulk of the populace. So long as basic needs are met, relative calm will prevail.
We know in Katrina much of the local law enforcement gave up. They got great support from external LEO. So I am wondering if city or "county X" would send its LEO to support "area Z"?

I also wonder how effective the military would be in the scenario. I have a a lot of faith in mankind and military commanders, but I think the military in a nationwide disaster would focus on local operations. I am not sure that a say "FT Bragg" would be able to support a region that would overlap with other major military posts/bases? I believe that the Post would be safe, disciplined and effective for a long time, likely the safest and most comfortable place in the country. Sooner or later, extended family members outside of the post will drain morale.

When I was in FRG / Cold War "the plan" was that if the ballon suddenly went up - we would go one direction to fight the commies; our families also stationed there would go the opposite direction - Secret locations for escape. I always wondered how many Soldiers would leave their families in such a horrible situation. We always hoped that we would have enough notice to get them out before we deployed, but we really never knew what would happen. We still don't know - that would have been a bad situation - Team Yankee.
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  #16  
Old 05-17-2017, 05:27 PM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Originally Posted by HarryO45 View Post
We know in Katrina much of the local law enforcement gave up. They got great support from external LEO. So I am wondering if city or "county X" would send its LEO to support "area Z"?

Assume that local LE would stay local... NG, .mil, and Federal would dispersed as needed....

I also wonder how effective the military would be in the scenario. I have a a lot of faith in mankind and military commanders, but I think the military in a nationwide disaster would focus on local operations. I am not sure that a say "FT Bragg" would be able to support a region that would overlap with other major military posts/bases? I believe that the Post would be safe, disciplined and effective for a long time, likely the safest and most comfortable place in the country. Sooner or later, extended family members outside of the post will drain morale.

The military, unlike Federal, State, and local LE ultimately has a single chain of command, and a single, common, operating concept. At least with the Army, a company (200 men), Bn (400 men), Bde (4k men) or DV (20k men) commander could move across the countru or gloab and assume command, and do it adequately. Leftbsid3 patch matters little. Mech is mech, light is light, and the airborne is light with a specialized method of infiltration- no more. A police chief from Atlanta would be an epic fail in NYC, and vice versa- differnent culturals...

When I was in FRG / Cold War "the plan" was that if the ballon suddenly went up - we would go one direction to fight the commies; our families also stationed there would go the opposite direction - Secret locations for escape. I always wondered how many Soldiers would leave their families in such a horrible situation. We always hoped that we would have enough notice to get them out before we deployed, but we really never knew what would happen. We still don't know - that would have been a bad situation - Team Yankee.
The Cold War was a collection of bad ideas, that- by the grace of God- were never put to the test....
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:17 PM
Russ Jackson Russ Jackson is offline
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If there was a national power outage. People would freak out immediately. It would be total chaos. I have a pretty good feeling that if the power went out Nationwide it's not coming back on anytime soon.
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:19 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is online now
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I think food and maybe water is gonna be a real issue for many people after about three days.
Water especially.

Three to five days without water and depending upon the climate, 95% of the population will either be dead or too weak to function.

Going without food, or adequate food can be survived for a much longer period of time.

That's why my BOB's have Life Straws and Purification Tablets.

But if at all possible, I'll shelter in place because even if the municipal water source quits, I've got 130 gallons of fresh water at any given time and I also have a well with a hand pump that pulls water from the Equus Beds of the Ogallala Aquifer.

If that's totally compromised, we're all in a world of hurt.
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:27 PM
kwo51 kwo51 is offline
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Running generator, open fire cooking would be an invitation to help ones self.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:21 PM
Vos Parate Vos Parate is offline
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If you want a taste of SHTF, attend a children's birthday party at Chuck E Cheese.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:35 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is online now
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Originally Posted by Vos Parate View Post
If you want a taste of SHTF, attend a children's birthday party at Chuck E Cheese.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:39 PM
Sailormilan2 Sailormilan2 is offline
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Originally Posted by HarryO45 View Post
When I was in FRG / Cold War "the plan" was that if the ballon suddenly went up - we would go one direction to fight the commies; our families also stationed there would go the opposite direction - Secret locations for escape. I always wondered how many Soldiers would leave their families in such a horrible situation. We always hoped that we would have enough notice to get them out before we deployed, but we really never knew what would happen. We still don't know - that would have been a bad situation - Team Yankee.
Many years ago, the Feds were giving an evacuation training class to local LEOs. The instructor was talking about how long it would take to evacuate a specific town, and how they were going to do it by placing local LEOs at specific locations. At this point, one of the local LEOs raised his hand and asked where they were going to get all the officers?
The instructor asked him what he meant, and the Officer said that most officers he knew would not be there. They would be with their families. The instructor then admitted that they hadn't thought of that.
When I was a working LEO, if something would have happened, as a single parent I would have been with my kids.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:55 PM
Guyfromohio Guyfromohio is offline
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I live in an urban area and I see absolutely no reason to go anywhere. Everything I need is in my home. Where would I be safer in a sleeping bag? I have defensible walls...blankets and fire if cold...food...gas stove to cook.....grill if need-be...weapons...ammo....dogs...medicine...supplies. ...and a generator if I need it.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:59 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Today's Military is not big enough to do much in a nation wide disaster.

A prolonged event is gonna stress local and state LEO. When in recent history, has a local area hit by a disaster not been augmented with regional / nationwide support? Internal resources are not aquacate. Example: A tornado hits a local area and the entire region moves to help. In Georgia a storm hits and power company trucks from Ohio are running around to support us.

I don't buy: the "Military and Federal Agencies will be dispersed as needed". For the military to operate it is gonna have to secure its facilities (bases) first and most or many of our nations airports and ports. Anywhere and every ground Line of Communication is gonna have to be secured. That is a must - without for any mission, So that means crowd control and security. I am assuming that passing out MREs or whatever is gonna be a mission...that will be hard enough let alone any other mission required of a large urban area.

Countryboy mentions the chain of command and types of units...their ability to adapt. This is true, they will be a valuable asset...but they are just too few for a nation wide disaster.

I
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:12 PM
HarryO45 HarryO45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Sailormilan2 View Post
Many years ago, the Feds were giving an evacuation training class to local LEOs. The instructor was talking about how long it would take to evacuate a specific town, and how they were going to do it by placing local LEOs at specific locations. At this point, one of the local LEOs raised his hand and asked where they were going to get all the officers?
The instructor asked him what he meant, and the Officer said that most officers he knew would not be there. They would be with their families. The instructor then admitted that they hadn't thought of that.
When I was a working LEO, if something would have happened, as a single parent I would have been with my kids.
Exactly,

I am not sure many "non-military folks" realized how many single parents are in the military - they are suppose to have a "plan" for someone to take custody of their dependents, but in emergency situations they might fail. I am not suggesting that the military would be crippled by the number of single parents, but I will say that if family members are in danger and some members of the unit are disregarding their military duty - it won't take long for morale to be affected. National Gaurd will have a harder time because most families don't live near a military installation.

American Civil War (danger on the home front and the front line) maybe the last time we had to deal with that. Read about Civil War desertions.

Last edited by HarryO45; 05-17-2017 at 08:14 PM.
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