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  #501  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:08 PM
NonHyphenAmerican NonHyphenAmerican is offline
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Just when you think things can't get better, it begins to appear that it's not as bad as projected.


https://www.westernjournal.com/covid...prediction-uk/
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  #502  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:32 PM
johnireland johnireland is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wccountryboy View Post
Same for me.... warehouse stores are your friend, if you have the space. 1.5x Sam's club packs of TP on hand at any given time, same with paper towels. I can comfortably wipe for a year or better....
For food stocking, I've started another thread dedicated to that subject....
I found a way that costs even less, I stopped having bowel movement. Going ten days now, hoping I'll make it to the end of the quarantine. But don't light any matches near me or you'll be consumed in blue flame.
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  #503  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:55 AM
wccountryboy wccountryboy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NonHyphenAmerican View Post
Just when you think things can't get better, it begins to appear that it's not as bad as projected.


https://www.westernjournal.com/covid...prediction-uk/
Really....? Its NOT going to kill half a million people in the auK....? I'm shocked...!
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  #504  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:49 AM
TRSOtto TRSOtto is offline
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Originally Posted by johnireland View Post
I found a way that costs even less, I stopped having bowel movement. Going ten days now, hoping I'll make it to the end of the quarantine. But don't light any matches near me or you'll be consumed in blue flame.
That would mean you're full of **it.
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  #505  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:58 AM
TominMO TominMO is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scubadad View Post
2 months ago I was crazy for stock piling ammo. reloading supplies, and my extra freezer. Now I'm a freaking genius.

btw I always bought tp in bulk when on sale, same for a lot of grocery items.
Hopefully you are not criminally inclined like this guy.....
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  #506  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:13 AM
scubadad scubadad is offline
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Originally Posted by TRSOtto View Post
That would mean you're full of **it.
Well of course this is after all the internet. Everyone on here is a 6ft tall ex navy seal with a 12 inch python.

Me. I don't like to brag. All I can say is some guys walk up and insert. I insert then walk up
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  #507  
Old 03-28-2020, 01:29 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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I have a hunch that all of the Demos that are running for office.

That they will be trying to milk this thing any way that they can. In order to get themselves elected in November. Additionally I will bet twenty bucks that after they fail to unseat the president this year that they go all in for a second impeachment proceeding circus in his second term. Some sort of malfeasance horse hockey or something.

I can just hear Nancy and Chuckie now. Oh people died because of him! Clearly inept response! Yadda Yadda Yadda. Wait and see.


Already starting!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...vE1?li=BBnbfcL

Last edited by USMM guy; 03-28-2020 at 02:11 PM. Reason: I knew that this would come soon.
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  #508  
Old 03-28-2020, 01:49 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Looks like a good chance POTUS will lock the NYC, and parts of CT & NJ boarders to all non commercial traffic. Decision soon he says. Governors outside these areas are complaining that NYers are fleeing to their states and spreading CV9..

This will get interesting, shelter in place is one thing, containment of this amount of area and people is another thing...But if we want the quarantine to work, it is needed (wasn't my first choice, but this is the road chosen by the medical-establishment, and if we want it to work the move makes sense). Courts may get pulled in I would suppose.

They will have to blockade a lot of roads and post cops/ST'ers all over the place.

We have a real-life Evil Virus movie going.

I'm in S-NJ, so we may not get contained, but either way I don't care, I have no intention of frolicking to other states right now. Just wish the Government would do a Toilet Paper drop down here, I didn't see this in the "stimulus" plan-lol. I'm still voting Trump in Nov though :-).
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Last edited by combat auto; 03-28-2020 at 02:00 PM.
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  #510  
Old 03-28-2020, 04:27 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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What are you seeing around you?

For the people that are still going out and about, for work or other reasons. What are you seeing? My wife and I have been staying put. To date we have had little necessity or reason to venture out.

But I was just telling my wife that I would bet that the Walmart over in Christiansburg was likely packed as usual on a Saturday. Something comes to mind here about half the population are not even as smart as the average person.

Last edited by USMM guy; 03-28-2020 at 05:36 PM. Reason: Typo.
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  #511  
Old 03-28-2020, 04:55 PM
TominMO TominMO is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
For the people that are still going out and about, for work or other reasons. What are you seeing? My wife and I have been saying put. To date we have had little necessity or reason to venture out.

But I was just telling my wife that I would bet that the Walmart over in Christiansburg was likely packed as usual on a Saturday. Something comes to mind here about half the population are not even as smart as the average person.
Here you go. The IQ bell curve.
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  #512  
Old 03-28-2020, 05:41 PM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
For the people that are still going out and about, for work or other reasons. What are you seeing? My wife and I have been staying put. To date we have had little necessity or reason to venture out.

But I was just telling my wife that I would bet that the Walmart over in Christiansburg was likely packed as usual on a Saturday. Something comes to mind here about half the population are not even as smart as the average person.

I'd guess that the subset of better prepared people is a close match with the subset of more intelligent people. Not a perfect match, but there is a correlation.

Excluding those who are obligated to go to work (e.g., medical professionals, grocery store staff, first responders, etc.; may God bless all of these people) my sense is that the better prepared, more intelligent subset of people are attempting to stay in isolation. I know that's the case with my immediate neighbors.

Those unprepared and/or not quite so intelligent are mostly the same subset of people packed closely together at the entrances of grocery stores, waiting for the store to open so they can race to the toilet paper aisle. Or continuing to "party on" (etc.) as if coronavirus didn't exist.

Perhaps a harsh perspective (I'm already a member of H. Clinton's "Basket of Deplorables"), and no question there are exceptions, but that's my sense.

My immediate area is much more of an urban areas than yours ...so with my above perspectives, I think behavior patterns might be closer correlated to preparation and intelligence than to whether someone lives "in the sticks" or in the city. Nonetheless, due to necessity, those in remote rural areas tend to be more independent and prepared due to practical everyday necessity.
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 03-28-2020 at 06:33 PM.
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  #513  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:14 PM
scubadad scubadad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
For the people that are still going out and about, for work or other reasons. What are you seeing? My wife and I have been staying put. To date we have had little necessity or reason to venture out.

But I was just telling my wife that I would bet that the Walmart over in Christiansburg was likely packed as usual on a Saturday. Something comes to mind here about half the population are not even as smart as the average person.
Funny you should ask. I manage a big box auto parts store. We are deemed essential so we are open for business. Here in OH we are in a 2 week lock down with essential travel only. Had one customer come in for air freshners and another looking for floor mats.

Gotta love people. In the middle of a global pandemic they really need new floor mats
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  #514  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:44 PM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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Just for interest, not really a surprise:

https://www.rt.com/usa/484389-milita...s-coronavirus/

"The US’ Northern Command has sent teams of essential staff deep underground to wait out the Covid-19 pandemic. On the surface, more than a million grunts won’t be quite as cocooned."

"Air Force General Terrence O’Shaughnessy heads up the US’ Northern Command, as well as the North American Aerospace Defense Command – a joint US/Canadian operation that monitors the skies over North America for missile and airborne threats. Earlier this week, O’Shaughnessy told reporters via Facebook that some of his watch teams would be moved from their usual command center at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado to a number of hardened underground bunkers......."
. Etc.

Gotta rely on Russian media to be informed of such activity
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 03-28-2020 at 06:55 PM.
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  #515  
Old 03-28-2020, 10:19 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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And here I have been thinking all of these years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrysanthemum View Post

Perhaps a harsh perspective (I'm already a member of H. Clinton's "Basket of Deplorables"), and no question there are exceptions, but that's my sense
That the Deplorables club was a pretty exclusive one. Apparently I am mistaken in this assumption. If they let flower people like Chrysanthemum in (had to check the spelling). They will let anyone in, just sayin. ^^^^^^^^
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  #516  
Old 03-29-2020, 07:59 AM
DaveVK DaveVK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
For the people that are still going out and about, for work or other reasons. What are you seeing? My wife and I have been staying put. To date we have had little necessity or reason to venture out.

But I was just telling my wife that I would bet that the Walmart over in Christiansburg was likely packed as usual on a Saturday. Something comes to mind here about half the population are not even as smart as the average person.
While honoring my front-line working wife's request to to social distancing FROM OTHERS (especially women). I saw in my travels from SE MI to NW/Central MI:

Hard Rainin early AM. Despite hydroplainng conditions and light traffic, many were in a hurry, traveling even faster than me! Par for the course, the brief tailgater hoping folks would pass semi trucks faster than they were willing were most often females and/or driving cars with OH licence plates (if only there was a tailgator or two in a Dodge Ram Truck I might have thought it to be normal morning commute).

Gassed up for $1.59 per gallon abot 45 min from my final destination. I was the only customer, but I paid at the pump. Used a couple of babywipes to assist with the pump and to wash afterward. Large container of wipes purchased last fall and kept in 2 of my vehicles, and used sporadically are still nice and moist despite being frozen on a couple occassions during the winter.

Rather than carpooling, a buddy caravanned/met me at the destination. With orange donned, we walked most of the property, saw only one rabbit (friend missed, I was too slow to the mount when later flushed away for good; no shot. Very surprised to flush a woodcock, that if in season and if someone in my hunting party actually likes the taste of liver, I coild have easilly taken it. Similar thing later, could have taken a relatively easy shot at a partridge the flushed right toward me, over my head and to the rear, before maneuvering in the class of an airshow trick pilot. Unlike woodcock, however, Ruffed Grouse is my favorite tasting bird and likely won't register on the cholesterol scale!

No porcupines seen to eliminate and didn't see their distinct damage (though we didnt venture too far into the timber). We did happen upon a couple of forensic scenes -- piles of deer fur likely successful coyote kills. Quite frankly, more than hunting, we both were enjoying scouting evidence of deer movements. Except for shaded northerly exposures, snow cover is absent.

Picked up a package from my office on the way back that had been delivered earlier in the week (quarterly case of wine delivery!). Ordered a pizza from my favorite gas station / market near home for pick up in an hour). Went straight from office to said store, gassed at $1.39 per gallon, picked up a case of beer and the pizza and joked with the clerk, who didn't get my humor. I told her I had $18 of returnables. She started to inform me that for safety concerns they are not taking bottle returns. I said that I knew this and have them ear marked in my garage for later delivery...

Anyway, despite the long round trip for just a day jaunt, I got a lot of excercise, have a new deer stand location identified and very much enjoyed my outdoor experience (while being able to look my wife in the eye having maintained prpper distancing from others, lol). I didn't even have to pull out the request for probabable cause should some rogue cop have randomly violated my safe distance to merely inquire why I was out and about. The last thing the wife asked before I left was, "Don't get arrested", lol as a suggestion to give up my 4th ammendment acknowledged right, knowing I'd be pissed about a random stop should it happen and that I'd be lecturing her....the female cop, not my wife!!!

Last edited by DaveVK; 03-29-2020 at 08:40 AM. Reason: Try not to lefture the wife!
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  #517  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:03 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMM guy View Post
That the Deplorables club was a pretty exclusive one. Apparently I am mistaken in this assumption. If they let flower people like Chrysanthemum in (had to check the spelling). They will let anyone in, just sayin. ^^^^^^^^
NRA membership provides automatic entry to H. Clinton's Deplorables Club.

All further entry requirements are waived, and top tier status is assured.

+1911 USMM for adding a smile to my morning.
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 03-29-2020 at 09:22 AM.
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  #518  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:25 AM
Bigtater Bigtater is offline
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Virus outbreak/ infectious disease worker

Being kinda a disease expert....... trying not to be pessimistic here.... but.... since it’s airborne. Quarantine will slow it. Not stop it. Since everyone sick at once is a disaster- slowing is good. But here in the south, it’s about 1/3 business as usual- 2/3 in hiding.
Realistically? The infection rate will eventually be about 1% tested or not. 80% will never know it, or assume they have a touch of allergy’s.... 15% are in for the worst flu/asthma/bone pain they ever had. 5% are dead. The bad news? The US has 300m people. That’s 3,000,000 infected. That’s a good 150,000 dead. Not all at once. Not all this year. The good news? Coronavirus there’s several versions we have been exposed to all along. When you get a cold you develop immunity for a few years. Most immunities are lifelong. But not Corona. So, if you get a cold- you won’t get THAT cold again for a few years. At any given time the average person has 1,2,3, or even 4 corona immunities in them from various mild or unknown exposures. What this means is CoVid 19 will be here to stay. It will slowly blend in with the other Coronaviruses and the 80% that never knew they had it- will have some immunity for a while.
So it’s effects will be less and less each season.
Coronaviruses are not fans of UV/sunlight so the hot summers will slow it down. Your best bet to be one of the 80% that didn’t even know they had it is simple: large viral load exposure makes you get sicker faster/harder/worse. So. Washing hands, handles, door knobs, soles of shoes, gas pumps, really will help reduce viral load even if exposed. I would also recommend the whole 6’ apart social distancing thing. And no large groups. Think of how American Indians died of colds when Europeans came over. But that no longer happens. We will adjust and it will become less important as time goes by. Also, by comparison? Smallpox and other pandemics had 30% kill rates. We are fortunate this maintains around 4-5% and 10% in elderly or diseased . This IS NOT A MILITARY OR MAN MADE VIRUS. Most of those have a phenomenal 90-97% kill rates. Since this is a 1911 forum I’ll throw this in......and I work with CoVid 19 in the facility three days a week....I am less afraid of the ‘problem’ than I am the ‘public’ people make bad decisions when scared. Stay safe . Stay cocked, locked, ready to Rock.
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  #519  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:54 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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^^^

It's difficult or impossible for anyone to be 100% accurate (except in hindsight), but I think you've made a lot of good points here. I'd been wondering about the "exposure load" factor you've mentioned. I have no expertise on the subject, but your observations make sense and match my earlier guesses. If correct, this goes a long way towards explaining (at least one reason) why people of the same age and same apparent health can experience vastly different results. +1911 for sharing, and best wishes for your safety (sounds like you're in a "frontline" position).

----

Separately, I see that a new sub-forum has been opened for COVID-19 discussions. So our thread here might soon be moved by moderators to that new sub-forum.

Even so, disaster preparation is still part of the story; albeit this is a different type of disaster, and we're now probably past the point of preparation.
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 03-29-2020 at 10:07 AM.
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  #520  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:17 AM
chrysanthemum chrysanthemum is offline
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BBC article (link below) on what's medically known and what is not yet known, including the subject of immunity development.

Obviously still a lot of unknowns, and even though there's much speculation about the unknowns, it seems prudent to follow a cautious "wait and see" approach.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52006988

Also interesting that President Trump's earlier expressed "hunch" of percentage of fatality rate is now proving accurate.... Despite the U.S. media's earlier ridiculing of President Trump's estimation. Of course, the media will not apologize or even admit that President Trump was correct, and, in fact, continues their "pile-on" strategy.

----

Separately, and related to earlier discussion in our current thread, the virus is now spreading in Moscow, with an early exponential rate-of-increase pattern similar to what's been seen elsewhere.

https://www.rt.com/russia/484401-cov...ead-in-moscow/

---

In Brazil, President Bolsonaro takes a different business-as-usual path, saying simply: "People are going to die, I'm sorry," he said. "But we can't stop a car factory because there are traffic accidents."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52080830

I suppose that President Bolsonaro choose not to attend any school of political correctness.
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Last edited by chrysanthemum; 03-29-2020 at 10:47 AM.
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  #521  
Old 03-29-2020, 12:19 PM
USMM guy USMM guy is online now
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Much to his credit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrysanthemum View Post
In Brazil, President Bolsonaro takes a different business-as-usual path, saying simply: "People are going to die, I'm sorry," he said. "But we can't stop a car factory because there are traffic accidents."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52080830

I suppose that President Bolsonaro choose not to attend any school of political correctness.
And every time our guy tries to go this way. All of the media clowns jump all over him. These people are quickly sqawking their way into irrelevance. Nobody is going to be handing out awards for the most indignant declaration.
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  #522  
Old 03-29-2020, 02:51 PM
PolymerMan PolymerMan is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigtater View Post
Being kinda a disease expert....... trying not to be pessimistic here.... but.... since it’s airborne. Quarantine will slow it. Not stop it. Since everyone sick at once is a disaster- slowing is good. But here in the south, it’s about 1/3 business as usual- 2/3 in hiding.
Realistically? The infection rate will eventually be about 1% tested or not. 80% will never know it, or assume they have a touch of allergy’s.... 15% are in for the worst flu/asthma/bone pain they ever had. 5% are dead. The bad news? The US has 300m people. That’s 3,000,000 infected. That’s a good 150,000 dead. Not all at once. Not all this year. The good news? Coronavirus there’s several versions we have been exposed to all along. When you get a cold you develop immunity for a few years. Most immunities are lifelong. But not Corona. So, if you get a cold- you won’t get THAT cold again for a few years. At any given time the average person has 1,2,3, or even 4 corona immunities in them from various mild or unknown exposures. What this means is CoVid 19 will be here to stay. It will slowly blend in with the other Coronaviruses and the 80% that never knew they had it- will have some immunity for a while.
So it’s effects will be less and less each season.
Coronaviruses are not fans of UV/sunlight so the hot summers will slow it down. Your best bet to be one of the 80% that didn’t even know they had it is simple: large viral load exposure makes you get sicker faster/harder/worse. So. Washing hands, handles, door knobs, soles of shoes, gas pumps, really will help reduce viral load even if exposed. I would also recommend the whole 6’ apart social distancing thing. And no large groups. Think of how American Indians died of colds when Europeans came over. But that no longer happens. We will adjust and it will become less important as time goes by. Also, by comparison? Smallpox and other pandemics had 30% kill rates. We are fortunate this maintains around 4-5% and 10% in elderly or diseased . This IS NOT A MILITARY OR MAN MADE VIRUS. Most of those have a phenomenal 90-97% kill rates. Since this is a 1911 forum I’ll throw this in......and I work with CoVid 19 in the facility three days a week....I am less afraid of the ‘problem’ than I am the ‘public’ people make bad decisions when scared. Stay safe . Stay cocked, locked, ready to Rock.
Many good points.

In fact, I think the pivotal issue you just raised is the "Viral Load" issue not mentioned until now in the whole forum for the past month. The dose of viral particulates one is exposed to in a short period instance, 'quantity wise' could be a key issue as to whether someone is overcome with illness or is able to shrug it off.

Good work.

I was also researching this topic... in epidemiology, I believe the term they use is "Biological Gradient", nevertheless, viral load at exposure is what makes sense as to why some healthy people with good immune system get deadly ill and some die, and others barely get any symptoms, some with minor cold symptoms and some remain asymptomatic.

The experts still don't have the answers because they like experiments, but I think the evidence is empirical.

If this were radiation poisoning, a single large exposure, can cause someone to become so sick they die in days... whereas, if someone is exposed to a much smaller dose of radiation, they may show no symptom... maybe cancer in 10 years, but their bodies are able to repair themselves in the short time period.

Likewise if someone is exposed to an overwhelming dose of this virus, such as inhaling millions from a infectiously sick patient (I have no idea what dose would be lethal, just guessing a number) of viral particulate bodies, that person's immune system is overcome, and they cannot produce enough antibodies to attack the foreign and novel bug. The bug is then free to destroy as much healthy tissue as possible.

On the other hand, someone who is exposed to a much smaller dose... say a few hundred viral cells, the healthy immune systems is able to begin to recognize a new foreign bug, and develop antibodies for it. It could be a race between viral cells and antibodies fighting each other.

Symptoms like fever, sore throats, coughs are generally signs that the body is in a biological war against a pathogens.

So it could be possible that people exposed to minor dosages are receiving the equivalent of a natural vaccine... just enough to let the immune system learn how to make an antibody and prepare its defense.

Glad you mentioned the viral load exposure thing!!!

Last edited by PolymerMan; 03-29-2020 at 02:54 PM.
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  #523  
Old 03-29-2020, 02:56 PM
Plantar5 Plantar5 is offline
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Just an amusing observation:

With most of the regular reporters not getting all their makeup/hair quaffed as usual, and lighting in front of the cameras.

Has anyone else noticed that many of these reporters (especially the females) look very ,,,,different... I’ll leave it there...
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  #524  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:08 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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Hong Kong Flue/1968 Flue P endemic - we have been here before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#Virology

The same virus returned the following years: a year later, in late 1969 and early 1970, and in 1972. The CDC currently estimates that, in total, the virus killed 1 million people worldwide and around 100,000 people in the U.S.[8]
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  #525  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:15 PM
combat auto combat auto is offline
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1957 Flu Pandemic

Another one...

I'm posting these last two because we talked a lot about the mega-flue of 1918 (675,000 US deaths), and the relatively speaking milder swine flue (13,000 US Deaths) of 10 years ago, but didn't cover the 1957 and 1968 flues - these two which in severity fall in-between the 1918 and swine flues...Just some additional perspective....We will survive this one today also with aplomb.

So far CV9 has the US at a relatively low 3,146 deaths
. Lets keep praying it stays relatively low.

https://www.cdc.gov/publications/pan...ries/1957.html
The 1957 flu pandemic was deadly, but milder than the 1918 event. The virus caused an estimated 70,000 deaths in the United States. The stories presented in this section are retold by survivors from New York to California.
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"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield." –Ulysses
Ekeibolon - Jeff Cooper

Last edited by combat auto; 03-30-2020 at 09:32 PM.
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