Being kinda a disease expert....... trying not to be pessimistic here.... but.... since it’s airborne. Quarantine will slow it. Not stop it. Since everyone sick at once is a disaster- slowing is good. But here in the south, it’s about 1/3 business as usual- 2/3 in hiding.
Realistically? The infection rate will eventually be about 1% tested or not. 80% will never know it, or assume they have a touch of allergy’s.... 15% are in for the worst flu/asthma/bone pain they ever had. 5% are dead. The bad news? The US has 300m people. That’s 3,000,000 infected. That’s a good 150,000 dead. Not all at once. Not all this year. The good news? Coronavirus there’s several versions we have been exposed to all along. When you get a cold you develop immunity for a few years. Most immunities are lifelong. But not Corona. So, if you get a cold- you won’t get THAT cold again for a few years. At any given time the average person has 1,2,3, or even 4 corona immunities in them from various mild or unknown exposures. What this means is CoVid 19 will be here to stay. It will slowly blend in with the other Coronaviruses and the 80% that never knew they had it- will have some immunity for a while.
So it’s effects will be less and less each season.
Coronaviruses are not fans of UV/sunlight so the hot summers will slow it down. Your best bet to be one of the 80% that didn’t even know they had it is simple: large viral load exposure makes you get sicker faster/harder/worse. So. Washing hands, handles, door knobs, soles of shoes, gas pumps, really will help reduce viral load even if exposed. I would also recommend the whole 6’ apart social distancing thing. And no large groups. Think of how American Indians died of colds when Europeans came over. But that no longer happens. We will adjust and it will become less important as time goes by. Also, by comparison? Smallpox and other pandemics had 30% kill rates. We are fortunate this maintains around 4-5% and 10% in elderly or diseased . This IS NOT A MILITARY OR MAN MADE VIRUS. Most of those have a phenomenal 90-97% kill rates. Since this is a 1911 forum I’ll throw this in......and I work with CoVid 19 in the facility three days a week....I am less afraid of the ‘problem’ than I am the ‘public’ people make bad decisions when scared. Stay safe . Stay cocked, locked, ready to Rock.
Many good points.
In fact, I think the pivotal issue you just raised is the "Viral Load" issue not mentioned until now in the whole forum for the past month. The dose of viral particulates one is exposed to in a short period instance, 'quantity wise' could be a key issue as to whether someone is overcome with illness or is able to shrug it off.
Good work.
I was also researching this topic... in epidemiology, I believe the term they use is "Biological Gradient", nevertheless, viral load at exposure is what makes sense as to why some healthy people with good immune system get deadly ill and some die, and others barely get any symptoms, some with minor cold symptoms and some remain asymptomatic.
The experts still don't have the answers because they like experiments, but I think the evidence is empirical.
If this were radiation poisoning, a single large exposure, can cause someone to become so sick they die in days... whereas, if someone is exposed to a much smaller dose of radiation, they may show no symptom... maybe cancer in 10 years, but their bodies are able to repair themselves in the short time period.
Likewise if someone is exposed to an overwhelming dose of this virus, such as inhaling millions from a infectiously sick patient (I have no idea what dose would be lethal, just guessing a number) of viral particulate bodies, that person's immune system is overcome, and they cannot produce enough antibodies to attack the foreign and novel bug. The bug is then free to destroy as much healthy tissue as possible.
On the other hand, someone who is exposed to a much smaller dose... say a few hundred viral cells, the healthy immune systems is able to begin to recognize a new foreign bug, and develop antibodies for it. It could be a race between viral cells and antibodies fighting each other.
Symptoms like fever, sore throats, coughs are generally signs that the body is in a biological war against a pathogens.
So it could be possible that people exposed to minor dosages are receiving the equivalent of a natural vaccine... just enough to let the immune system learn how to make an antibody and prepare its defense.
Glad you mentioned the viral load exposure thing!!!