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Virus outbreak

50K views 526 replies 81 participants last post by  cavelamb 
#1 ·
This is about the coronavirus NOT SOME STUPID ZOMBIE CRAP. Now that we got that out of the way.

I work in Oxford OH home to Miami U that has about 3k asian students. Two are currently in isolation pending test results from the cdc. While there is not chaos there is definatly some mild panic going on. Lots of mask wearing and a few in hazmat suits. I have seen this with my own eyes and the pictures online are real. 2 of my part timers are students and I have seen their personal cell phone pics as well.

The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic. Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents.

So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?
 
#3 ·
This will put a real hurt on asian restaurants fast. Even if this virus is controlled and a vaccine is developed, it will take enough time to impact the world economy negatively.

The Chinese are going to take a hard hit from this, their economy will take a nosedive in short order.
 
#4 ·
...Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents. ...
Everyone, especially Amazon.com has sold out of N95 face masks.

One more item to add to your bug-out bag list for the day the SHTF for when this blows over.
 
#6 · (Edited)
Well...I am ahead of the curve because I take chemo pills every day. Warnings on the pill-bottle label as well as from my doctor "keep away from sick people!" - and they are not just talking about Adam Scifft and other Demorcpas. LOL

So I have kept a nice cache of N95 masks for years which I use extensively when I go into public (tight spaces, like doctor's-offices, grocery-stores, etc) during flue season.

Any mask works to some degree, but for viruses (like flues), N95 is the gold standard.

So yes, N95 Mask are the real deal, I have been using them with great effect for almost 10 years during flue season. Even if you have nothing that compromises your immune system, all Good-Preppers should have a cache of them.
 
#64 · (Edited)
Don't know...But appreciate the heads up.

PS just looked, that looks more like it is design for dust. N95 is still the gold standard for viruses and as far as I know of course.

This is the exact one I use, note it says 1860 medical along with N95...As mention, I take chemo pills every day so I have to use these in public during flue season (like food shopping where it is impossible to avoid people coughing etc). I've been doing it for many years with great success.

3M 1860 Medical Mask N95, 20 Count, Expire on May 2024, International
 
#7 ·
Well we dug out a big trench in the back pasture with the back hoe.

And we have laid in a bunch of fifty lb bags of Lime. Currently we are waiting to see if they are going to sink that passenger ship with six thousand passengers quarantined on board. That should tell you something.
 
#8 ·
Chinese stock market is already starting to drop. Reports are half of all the Starbucks (not that I care) in China are closed. China is shutting down their steel production, and China makes about 30% of the smaller parts and subassemblies for automakers. So, even if it does not become a pandemic, if it goes on too long there may be long term financial impact.
My plan is sheltering in place. Hard to get exposed to something if you don't move around. However, as a JIC(Just In Case) I got a box of 10 N95 masks from Home Depot and some latril gloves yesterday. I also have a N95 Respirator for serious situations.
I'm not expecting a real serious problem. But, it's better to have and not need, rather than need and not have.
 
#11 ·
#12 ·
The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic.
What, the news media blowing things out of proportion??? Say it ain't so!

The common flu still kills far more people annually than this or any other "super bug" outbreak ever has.

You are still far more likely to be killed by a drunk driver than get sick and die of this thing.

You also are far more likely to be killed by said drunk than be shot by a lunatic with an assault rifle, but hey, drunk drivers don't make headlines like nuts with AR-15s do.

Having said all that, I do find it rather pathetic that in this newly enlightened, progressively liberal, "diversified" society of ours Asians are still being stereotyped and picked on. So what if you see an Asian girl wearing a mask? She's just being smart and considerate. Your real enemy is what old white guy standing nearby coughing, sneezing and gagging right out into the open. :mad:
 
#14 ·
Miami U is definetly progressive liberal. They took the day off when hillary lost and had counselors on hand. To see these same people now shunning fellow students because they are chinese is f upped. Guess they don't practice what they preach.

As of now we are still waiting for the cdc to release the test results. If they are positive then the poop will hit the fan.
 
#13 ·
The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic.
What, the news media blowing things out of proportion??? Say it ain't so!

The common flu still kills far more people annually than this or any other "super bug" outbreak ever has.

You are still far more likely to be killed by a drunk driver than get sick and die of this thing.

You also are far more likely to be killed by said drunk than be shot by a lunatic with an assault rifle, but hey, drunk drivers don't make headlines like nuts with AR-15s do.

Having said all that, I do find it rather pathetic that in this newly enlightened, progressively liberal, "diversified" society of ours Asians are still being stereotyped and picked on. So what if you see an Asian girl wearing a mask? She's just being smart and considerate. Your real enemy is what old white guy standing nearby coughing, sneezing and gagging right out into the open.
‘Cough, couch, amen’.

Driving to the store to get said mask is more dangerous.
 
#16 ·
Anyway, to answer your original question about prepping... the same answers apply no matter what plague is sweeping the nation and world. Keep away from the public as best you can, wash your hands often, use anti-bacterial soap and never go outdoors on a chilly day without a coat. Personally I think face masks are just morale-boosters and the equivalent of using a can of pepper spray to defend yourself... you think it will do some good but it really won't.
 
#17 ·
So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?

Unless you're immunocompromised/immunosuppressed (have AIDS, cancer, diabetes, suffer from malnutrition or certain genetic disorders, receiving anticancer drugs, radiation therapy, or had stem cell or organ transplant)...or are generally ALREADY in poor health (COPD, Emphysema, etc) DONT SWEAT IT. Your immune system will take care of you and you'll just have "the flu".

The folks dying from this had existing health issues, lived in squalor or were very old.

To reduce the chance of getting sick in general, load up on probiotics, Vitamin C and Vitamin D. If you're in public and hear someone coughing...walk away to at least 6 feet distance if you can!! If you have to travel on a commercial plane, try to get a window seat and keep your air vent on (yes, ON). Bring a pack of Lysol wipes and wipe down the tray table and armrests (sounds like overkill, but the virus can live on hard surfaces for 24-hours) Use paper towel to touch handles like the toilet flush handle, toilet seat and lavatory faucet handles.

Wash your hands a lot, keep hand sanitizer with you and use frequently after touching surfaces in public (door knobs, handrails, etc).
 
#63 ·
To reduce the chance of getting sick in general, load up on probiotics, Vitamin C and Vitamin D. If you're in public and hear someone coughing...walk away to at least 6 feet distance if you can!! If you have to travel on a commercial plane, try to get a window seat and keep your air vent on (yes, ON). Bring a pack of Lysol wipes and wipe down the tray table and armrests (sounds like overkill, but the virus can live on hard surfaces for 24-hours) Use paper towel to touch handles like the toilet flush handle, toilet seat and lavatory faucet handles.

Wash your hands a lot, keep hand sanitizer with you and use frequently after touching surfaces in public (door knobs, handrails, etc).

^^^^^ This ^^^^^
 
#19 · (Edited)
This is much misinformation and disinformation out there, and it is hard to figure out what to believe. That's not even beginning to count the conspiracy theories.
For days the Chinese have been saying that there appears to be evidence that someone who is asymptomatic(without symptoms) can be contagious. Yet the US CDC says that isn't so. Just yesterday an article appeared that stated Chinese authorities had found a 10 year old boy, who had an upper respiratory track infection, was outwardly asymptomatic, and was contagious. So, who does one believe?
The conspiracy theories revolve around this being a man made virus, and there appears to be some evidence of that. Apparently, part of the RNA chain is not normal looking. So, it is not known if it is just a normal "mutation", a recombination of RNA from two different animals(snake and bat), or man made. Then, if it was man made, was it a deliberate release, or an accident?
Many medical people feel as "Flight Medic" does, that is nothing but a "cold". Since I read the same thing on another form from a poster whose wife is an RN, with a Master's in Nursing. She, and all the medical people she works with want to know what the big deal is? It's just a cold.
Her husband, the poster, says, what bothers him is the Chinese response to this "cold". It's all out of proportion to it being "just a cold". It's mortality rate seems to be running at about 3%. Some variance, but 2.5-3%. I don't believe that colds kill that many people.
So, what does one believe? There's the old adage, of Hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. I think that most of us here have some sort of disaster preps going on, which should keep most of us off the streets and out of contact with people should this turn nasty. However, it might be prudent to lay in a supply of cold and flu meds. If they don't get used now, I'm sure they will come in handy the next flu season.


Freely stolen from another forum.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/pub...th/ncov-model/

“Our metapopulation model is based on a global network of local, city-level, populations connected by edges representing passenger air travel between cities. At each node of the network, we locally model outbreak dynamics using a discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. IATA monthly passenger travel volumes for all travel routes connecting airport pairs (including stopovers) is used to construct the weighted edges. The SEIR parameters are defined based on a 10 day period from exposure to recovery, aligning with a previously published report, divided into a 5 day incubation and 5 day recovery period for the purposes of this analysis. The effective contact rate corresponds to a reproductive number of 2, which aligns with an estimate from Imperial College London, reporting a range between 1.5 and 3.5. We assume initial cases of 2019-nCoV are only present in Wuhan, and no border control is accounted for. The model results presented are based on an average of 250 runs.

Results

The simulation model is run for a time period between the start of the outbreak, up until January 25. The simulation results align with the number of air travel reported cases outside of mainland China early in the outbreak; specifically, we estimate 40 cases of 2019-nCoV to have been exported outside of mainland China by January 25, as was reported. For 40 cases to have been exported out of the country, we believe the number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported throughout January. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 20,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China on January 25 (at which time closer to 2000 were reported). We also estimate there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December. The estimated verses confirmed cases during January are presented in Figure 1. Our estimates are slightly higher than those from two other modeling exercises, namely, a report out of Imperial College estimated 4000 cases in mainland China on January 18, and a report out of Northeastern University estimated 12,700 on January 24. However, there was a substantial and rapid increase in reported cases outside of China during these dates, which is still occurring, and likely to lead to higher estimates than those in this study.”

Note: The first paragraph refers to a "reproductive value"(r-0) of 1.5 - 3.5. That is the number of people it assumes will be infected by a person. The lower the number, the fewer the number of people who will get infected, and the higher the number, the more people. Yet, I've seen r-0 values of 3.-5. But, that number was from Chinese sources, and with their living conditions and population, they may have a higher r-0 value than we would here.
So, again, what, or who, does one believe. I tend to go with many people. That we cannot believe the number China is releasing. They don't have a stellar track record for truthfulness. But, at the time, can the CDC be trusted? Since they will be into panic prevention.
 
#28 ·
<snip>

Many medical people feel as "Flight Medic" does, that is nothing but a "cold". Since I read the same thing on another form from a poster whose wife is an RN, with a Master's in Nursing. She, and all the medical people she works with want to know what the big deal is? It's just a cold.
</snip>
OK, you make it sound like I was comparing this to the "sniffles". I WAS NOT.

The message I was trying to get across was, if you're generally in good health, the Coronavirus WILL NOT KILL YOU, and there's no need to "hunker down".

However, I never implied there weren't deaths directly related to the strain, or that there wasnt concern for certain regions of the globe or specific demographics of the population. This is a nasty virus that WILL wreak havoc on a compromised or weakened immune system.
 
#20 ·
Corona beer?! Is this really "breaking news?"

I think this is a serious regional health risk that needs to be addressed properly before it gets widespread. I am not too worried about us here in the US...yet.
The seasonal flu is still a greater risk, but the media needs clicks/viewers. What concerns me is that the Chinese are so secretive & present a false front to the world.
 
#21 ·
This is possibly in my region. I work in automotive retail and our store foot traffic was way down yesterday. Next door is a fast food restaurant and they said dining room is way down and drive thru is way up.

The latest conspiracy theory around town is that the 2 students in isolation tested positive and the school is keeping it quiet.
 
#22 ·
If you always employ universal precautions, which is always the case whether we’re dealing with the flu bugs, or the latest super bugs, risk is minimal. The problem is people who haven’t a clue, and continue to cough sneeze and hack all over, and dont wash their hands.
Btw, Purell, isnt washing your hands. Many offices in my building have signs on the door asking those with “flu like “ symptoms to wear a mask or reschedule.
Identify, contain, cure is what the CDC’s mantra is, and they do a good job imho.
 
#23 ·
I'm not saying the Corona virus doesn't require attention, but more people will die in 2020, in the US, and world wide from the Flu, and complications from the flu than will die from the Corona virus.
 
#25 ·
Have any of you watched anything other than English news channels?
My wife and I were watching the Spanish news channels the other night and they were showing videos of bodies in the streets. Men in white suits were pulling up in weird looking vans and loading them in. And the guys doing it would not touch the bodies. They were using specialized shovels to scoop em up with. Also showed several videos from security cameras over there in China of people that were standing and fell flat over on their faces and didn’t move afterward. Same men in weird vans came and scooped them up to.
Honestly they have admitted to 8,000 cases and 170 dead. I think it’s probably a lot more. Because if it gets really bad China is the kind of country that will just disappear a few million people and nobody will ever know.
Lastly the fact they diverted the plane with Americans from Wuhan that was going to land at a civilian airport to a military base is kinda worrisome.
I guess we just don’t know and probably again since it’s origin is in China we will never know the real story on it.
What I do know I don’t really want to take an overseas summer vacation anymore like I normally do.
 
#26 ·
As long as you have a Colt Python and plenty of ammo.

You should be OK. :eek:
 
#40 ·
yes common sense is a decided factor to follow here.

If it wears a sports uniform and kneels,,,, it gets shot.

It if shuffles, wears a face mask and coughs.... it gets shot.

if it wants to raise taxes,,, it gets shot. Hell, if just talks about being from government it should be shot on site. gotta stop the infection somehow.
 
#32 ·
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-patients.html

Quote:
Clinical Presentation

There are a limited number of reports that describe the clinical presentation of patients with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection, and most are limited to hospitalized patients with pneumonia. The incubation period is estimated at ~5 days (95% confidence interval, 4 to 7 days). Frequently reported signs and symptoms include fever (83–98%), cough (76%–82%), and myalgia or fatigue (11–44%) at illness onset. Sore throat has also been reported in some patients early in the clinical course. Less commonly reported symptoms include sputum production, headache, hemoptysis, and diarrhea. The fever course among patients with 2019-nCoV infection is not fully understood; it may be prolonged and intermittent. Asymptomatic infection has been described in one child with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection and chest computed tomography (CT) abnormalities.

Risk factors for severe illness are not yet clear, although older patients and those with chronic medical conditions may be at higher risk for severe illness. Nearly all reported cases have occurred in adults (median age 59 years). In one study of 425 patients with pneumonia and confirmed 2019-nCoV infection, 57% were male. Approximately one-third to one-half of reported patients had underlying medical comorbidities, including diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease.

Clinical Course

Clinical presentation among reported cases of 2019-nCoV infection varies in severity from asymptomatic infection or mild illness to severe or fatal illness. Some reports suggest the potential for clinical deterioration during the second week of illness. In one report, among patients with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection and pneumonia, just over half of patients developed dyspnea a median of 8 days after illness onset (range: 5–13 days).

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developed in 17–29% of hospitalized patients, and secondary infection developed in 10%. Between 23–32% of hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection required intensive care for respiratory support. Some hospitalized patients have required advanced organ support with invasive mechanical ventilation (4–10%), and a small proportion have also required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO, 3–5%). Other reported complications include acute cardiac injury (12%) and acute kidney injury (4–7%). Among hospitalized patients with pneumonia, the case fatality proportion has been reported as high as 11–15%. However, as this estimate includes only-hospitalized patients, and therefore is biased upward.
 
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