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scubadad 01-30-2020 11:39 AM

Virus outbreak
 
This is about the coronavirus NOT SOME STUPID ZOMBIE CRAP. Now that we got that out of the way.

I work in Oxford OH home to Miami U that has about 3k asian students. Two are currently in isolation pending test results from the cdc. While there is not chaos there is definatly some mild panic going on. Lots of mask wearing and a few in hazmat suits. I have seen this with my own eyes and the pictures online are real. 2 of my part timers are students and I have seen their personal cell phone pics as well.

The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic. Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents.

So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?

4110mm 01-30-2020 11:43 AM

Finally our asian friends have all the more reasons to be wearing them masks. I found that mildly irritating over the years when they wear masks on regular flights, in airports and everywhere, now I may get one myself if they are not all sold out anyway.

Colt191145 01-30-2020 01:51 PM

This will put a real hurt on asian restaurants fast. Even if this virus is controlled and a vaccine is developed, it will take enough time to impact the world economy negatively.

The Chinese are going to take a hard hit from this, their economy will take a nosedive in short order.

PolymerMan 01-30-2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scubadad (Post 13052710)
...Yesterday I was eating lunch at taco bell and as I was leaving 3 asian students wearing surgical masks came in. Everyone cleared out asap. My sister in-law works at the university and they are getting non stop calls from parents. ...

Everyone, especially Amazon.com has sold out of N95 face masks.

One more item to add to your bug-out bag list for the day the SHTF for when this blows over.

robertrwalsh 01-30-2020 03:07 PM

"Everything is cool" does not sell newspapers. (And I have had a couple of NIOSH respirators and N-95 masks in my bug-out bag for years.

combat auto 01-30-2020 03:10 PM

Well...I am ahead of the curve because I take chemo pills every day. Warnings on the pill-bottle label as well as from my doctor "keep away from sick people!" - and they are not just talking about Adam Scifft and other Demorcpas. LOL

So I have kept a nice cache of N95 masks for years which I use extensively when I go into public (tight spaces, like doctor's-offices, grocery-stores, etc) during flue season.

Any mask works to some degree, but for viruses (like flues), N95 is the gold standard.

So yes, N95 Mask are the real deal, I have been using them with great effect for almost 10 years during flue season. Even if you have nothing that compromises your immune system, all Good-Preppers should have a cache of them.

USMM guy 01-30-2020 03:55 PM

Well we dug out a big trench in the back pasture with the back hoe.
 
And we have laid in a bunch of fifty lb bags of Lime. Currently we are waiting to see if they are going to sink that passenger ship with six thousand passengers quarantined on board. That should tell you something.

Sailormilan2 01-30-2020 04:11 PM

Chinese stock market is already starting to drop. Reports are half of all the Starbucks (not that I care) in China are closed. China is shutting down their steel production, and China makes about 30% of the smaller parts and subassemblies for automakers. So, even if it does not become a pandemic, if it goes on too long there may be long term financial impact.
My plan is sheltering in place. Hard to get exposed to something if you don't move around. However, as a JIC(Just In Case) I got a box of 10 N95 masks from Home Depot and some latril gloves yesterday. I also have a N95 Respirator for serious situations.
I'm not expecting a real serious problem. But, it's better to have and not need, rather than need and not have.

4110mm 01-30-2020 04:42 PM

I dont go to Chinese restaurants in the US, not now or any other time...

Amos Iron Wolf 01-30-2020 05:24 PM

Just eat lotsa kimchee. That'll protect you. And keep other people away. :D

I better dig the jar out of the fridge and have some with supper tonight. Korean anti-virus.

USMM guy 01-30-2020 05:44 PM

From the news reports.
 
It looks like things are really getting out of hand. :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsMp2pZK-Cw

dsk 01-30-2020 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scubadad (Post 13052710)
The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic.

What, the news media blowing things out of proportion??? Say it ain't so!

The common flu still kills far more people annually than this or any other "super bug" outbreak ever has.

You are still far more likely to be killed by a drunk driver than get sick and die of this thing.

You also are far more likely to be killed by said drunk than be shot by a lunatic with an assault rifle, but hey, drunk drivers don't make headlines like nuts with AR-15s do.

Having said all that, I do find it rather pathetic that in this newly enlightened, progressively liberal, "diversified" society of ours Asians are still being stereotyped and picked on. So what if you see an Asian girl wearing a mask? She's just being smart and considerate. Your real enemy is what old white guy standing nearby coughing, sneezing and gagging right out into the open. :mad:

shooter59 01-30-2020 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsk (Post 13053106)
Quote:

Originally Posted by scubadad (Post 13052710)
The media is blowing this thing up and I think multiplying the panic.

What, the news media blowing things out of proportion??? Say it ain't so!

The common flu still kills far more people annually than this or any other "super bug" outbreak ever has.

You are still far more likely to be killed by a drunk driver than get sick and die of this thing.

You also are far more likely to be killed by said drunk than be shot by a lunatic with an assault rifle, but hey, drunk drivers don't make headlines like nuts with AR-15s do.

Having said all that, I do find it rather pathetic that in this newly enlightened, progressively liberal, "diversified" society of ours Asians are still being stereotyped and picked on. So what if you see an Asian girl wearing a mask? She's just being smart and considerate. Your real enemy is what old white guy standing nearby coughing, sneezing and gagging right out into the open. [IMG class=inlineimg]https://forums.1911forum.com/images/smilies/mad.gif[/IMG]

‘Cough, couch, amen’.

Driving to the store to get said mask is more dangerous.

scubadad 01-30-2020 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsk (Post 13053106)
What, the news media blowing things out of proportion??? Say it ain't so!

The common flu still kills far more people annually than this or any other "super bug" outbreak ever has.

You are still far more likely to be killed by a drunk driver than get sick and die of this thing.

You also are far more likely to be killed by said drunk than be shot by a lunatic with an assault rifle, but hey, drunk drivers don't make headlines like nuts with AR-15s do.

Having said all that, I do find it rather pathetic that in this newly enlightened, progressively liberal, "diversified" society of ours Asians are still being stereotyped and picked on. So what if you see an Asian girl wearing a mask? She's just being smart and considerate. Your real enemy is what old white guy standing nearby coughing, sneezing and gagging right out into the open. :mad:

Miami U is definetly progressive liberal. They took the day off when hillary lost and had counselors on hand. To see these same people now shunning fellow students because they are chinese is f upped. Guess they don't practice what they preach.

As of now we are still waiting for the cdc to release the test results. If they are positive then the poop will hit the fan.

dsk 01-30-2020 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scubadad (Post 13053170)
Miami U is definetly progressive liberal. They took the day off when hillary lost and had counselors on hand. To see these same people now shunning fellow students because they are chinese is f upped. Guess they don't practice what they preach.

The Democrats and wealthy liberal elites are not reliable allies of minorities in this country no matter what they say. They are merely using them for their own ends, trying to get their support so as to unseat conservatives from power everywhere, and will sell them down the river if it becomes necessary. Unfortunately these minorities will find out too late when they see this so-called land of opportunity seriously degraded by the left's selfish and destructive socialist agenda.

BTW there have been several reports of Asians being treated like they're germ-laden parasites here in Seattle as well. Yes, the leftist-progressive capital of the NW treating them like it's a new wave of 1800's xenophobia.

dsk 01-30-2020 11:31 PM

Anyway, to answer your original question about prepping... the same answers apply no matter what plague is sweeping the nation and world. Keep away from the public as best you can, wash your hands often, use anti-bacterial soap and never go outdoors on a chilly day without a coat. Personally I think face masks are just morale-boosters and the equivalent of using a can of pepper spray to defend yourself... you think it will do some good but it really won't.

Flight Medic 01-31-2020 04:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scubadad (Post 13052710)

So I guess what I'm asking is does anyone have any preps for something like this? Do you just hunker down until it passes?


Unless you're immunocompromised/immunosuppressed (have AIDS, cancer, diabetes, suffer from malnutrition or certain genetic disorders, receiving anticancer drugs, radiation therapy, or had stem cell or organ transplant)...or are generally ALREADY in poor health (COPD, Emphysema, etc) DONT SWEAT IT. Your immune system will take care of you and you'll just have "the flu".

The folks dying from this had existing health issues, lived in squalor or were very old.

To reduce the chance of getting sick in general, load up on probiotics, Vitamin C and Vitamin D. If you're in public and hear someone coughing...walk away to at least 6 feet distance if you can!! If you have to travel on a commercial plane, try to get a window seat and keep your air vent on (yes, ON). Bring a pack of Lysol wipes and wipe down the tray table and armrests (sounds like overkill, but the virus can live on hard surfaces for 24-hours) Use paper towel to touch handles like the toilet flush handle, toilet seat and lavatory faucet handles.

Wash your hands a lot, keep hand sanitizer with you and use frequently after touching surfaces in public (door knobs, handrails, etc).

Flight Medic 01-31-2020 05:51 AM

Oh yeah...and DONT drink Corona beer!!


http://imageshack.com/a/img924/4469/0XUffJ.jpg


Christ, the human population is just getting dumber and dumber.

Sailormilan2 01-31-2020 07:19 AM

This is much misinformation and disinformation out there, and it is hard to figure out what to believe. That's not even beginning to count the conspiracy theories.
For days the Chinese have been saying that there appears to be evidence that someone who is asymptomatic(without symptoms) can be contagious. Yet the US CDC says that isn't so. Just yesterday an article appeared that stated Chinese authorities had found a 10 year old boy, who had an upper respiratory track infection, was outwardly asymptomatic, and was contagious. So, who does one believe?
The conspiracy theories revolve around this being a man made virus, and there appears to be some evidence of that. Apparently, part of the RNA chain is not normal looking. So, it is not known if it is just a normal "mutation", a recombination of RNA from two different animals(snake and bat), or man made. Then, if it was man made, was it a deliberate release, or an accident?
Many medical people feel as "Flight Medic" does, that is nothing but a "cold". Since I read the same thing on another form from a poster whose wife is an RN, with a Master's in Nursing. She, and all the medical people she works with want to know what the big deal is? It's just a cold.
Her husband, the poster, says, what bothers him is the Chinese response to this "cold". It's all out of proportion to it being "just a cold". It's mortality rate seems to be running at about 3%. Some variance, but 2.5-3%. I don't believe that colds kill that many people.
So, what does one believe? There's the old adage, of Hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. I think that most of us here have some sort of disaster preps going on, which should keep most of us off the streets and out of contact with people should this turn nasty. However, it might be prudent to lay in a supply of cold and flu meds. If they don't get used now, I'm sure they will come in handy the next flu season.


Freely stolen from another forum.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/pub...th/ncov-model/

“Our metapopulation model is based on a global network of local, city-level, populations connected by edges representing passenger air travel between cities. At each node of the network, we locally model outbreak dynamics using a discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. IATA monthly passenger travel volumes for all travel routes connecting airport pairs (including stopovers) is used to construct the weighted edges. The SEIR parameters are defined based on a 10 day period from exposure to recovery, aligning with a previously published report, divided into a 5 day incubation and 5 day recovery period for the purposes of this analysis. The effective contact rate corresponds to a reproductive number of 2, which aligns with an estimate from Imperial College London, reporting a range between 1.5 and 3.5. We assume initial cases of 2019-nCoV are only present in Wuhan, and no border control is accounted for. The model results presented are based on an average of 250 runs.

Results

The simulation model is run for a time period between the start of the outbreak, up until January 25. The simulation results align with the number of air travel reported cases outside of mainland China early in the outbreak; specifically, we estimate 40 cases of 2019-nCoV to have been exported outside of mainland China by January 25, as was reported. For 40 cases to have been exported out of the country, we believe the number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported throughout January. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 20,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China on January 25 (at which time closer to 2000 were reported). We also estimate there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December. The estimated verses confirmed cases during January are presented in Figure 1. Our estimates are slightly higher than those from two other modeling exercises, namely, a report out of Imperial College estimated 4000 cases in mainland China on January 18, and a report out of Northeastern University estimated 12,700 on January 24. However, there was a substantial and rapid increase in reported cases outside of China during these dates, which is still occurring, and likely to lead to higher estimates than those in this study.”

Note: The first paragraph refers to a "reproductive value"(r-0) of 1.5 - 3.5. That is the number of people it assumes will be infected by a person. The lower the number, the fewer the number of people who will get infected, and the higher the number, the more people. Yet, I've seen r-0 values of 3.-5. But, that number was from Chinese sources, and with their living conditions and population, they may have a higher r-0 value than we would here.
So, again, what, or who, does one believe. I tend to go with many people. That we cannot believe the number China is releasing. They don't have a stellar track record for truthfulness. But, at the time, can the CDC be trusted? Since they will be into panic prevention.

yeti 01-31-2020 07:20 AM

Corona beer?! Is this really "breaking news?"

I think this is a serious regional health risk that needs to be addressed properly before it gets widespread. I am not too worried about us here in the US...yet.
The seasonal flu is still a greater risk, but the media needs clicks/viewers. What concerns me is that the Chinese are so secretive & present a false front to the world.

scubadad 01-31-2020 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yeti (Post 13053428)
Corona beer?! Is this really "breaking news?"

I think this is a serious regional health risk that needs to be addressed properly before it gets widespread. I am not too worried about us here in the US...yet.
The seasonal flu is still a greater risk, but the media needs clicks/viewers. What concerns me is that the Chinese are so secretive & present a false front to the world.

This is possibly in my region. I work in automotive retail and our store foot traffic was way down yesterday. Next door is a fast food restaurant and they said dining room is way down and drive thru is way up.

The latest conspiracy theory around town is that the 2 students in isolation tested positive and the school is keeping it quiet.

Plantar5 01-31-2020 08:30 AM

If you always employ universal precautions, which is always the case whether we’re dealing with the flu bugs, or the latest super bugs, risk is minimal. The problem is people who haven’t a clue, and continue to cough sneeze and hack all over, and dont wash their hands.
Btw, Purell, isnt washing your hands. Many offices in my building have signs on the door asking those with “flu like “ symptoms to wear a mask or reschedule.
Identify, contain, cure is what the CDC’s mantra is, and they do a good job imho.

woody b 01-31-2020 10:36 AM

I'm not saying the Corona virus doesn't require attention, but more people will die in 2020, in the US, and world wide from the Flu, and complications from the flu than will die from the Corona virus.

PolymerMan 01-31-2020 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woody b (Post 13053614)
I'm not saying the Corona virus doesn't require attention, but more people will die in 2020, in the US, and world wide from the Flu, and complications from the flu than will die from the Corona virus.

A whole lot more people will die of medical malpractice... 250,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medi...n-america.html

7.62Kolectr 01-31-2020 06:11 PM

Have any of you watched anything other than English news channels?
My wife and I were watching the Spanish news channels the other night and they were showing videos of bodies in the streets. Men in white suits were pulling up in weird looking vans and loading them in. And the guys doing it would not touch the bodies. They were using specialized shovels to scoop em up with. Also showed several videos from security cameras over there in China of people that were standing and fell flat over on their faces and didn’t move afterward. Same men in weird vans came and scooped them up to.
Honestly they have admitted to 8,000 cases and 170 dead. I think it’s probably a lot more. Because if it gets really bad China is the kind of country that will just disappear a few million people and nobody will ever know.
Lastly the fact they diverted the plane with Americans from Wuhan that was going to land at a civilian airport to a military base is kinda worrisome.
I guess we just don’t know and probably again since it’s origin is in China we will never know the real story on it.
What I do know I don’t really want to take an overseas summer vacation anymore like I normally do.


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