1911Forum

1911Forum (https://forums.1911forum.com/index.php)
-   COVID-19 Discussions (https://forums.1911forum.com/forumdisplay.php?f=238)
-   -   Lets keep things in perspective (https://forums.1911forum.com/showthread.php?t=1013408)

Flight Medic 04-03-2020 02:52 AM

Lets keep things in perspective
 
The following mortality statistics from www.worldometers.info are JUST from January 1st to April 2, 2020 (3 months)


Number of Deaths Worldwide

Coronavirus: 53,245

Seasonal flu: 123,943
Malaria: 250,043
Suicide: 273,359
Traffic fatalities: 344,111
HIV/AIDS: 428,530
Alcohol-related: 637,569
Smoking 1,274,363
Cancer: 2,093,607
Starvation: 2,851,375
Abortion: 10,835,257


Number of people RECOVERED from Coronavirus: 213,164 ( 80% )

Granted, by the website's own admission, these are estimated numbers using an advanced algorithm compiled from sources such as WHO, UNICEF, CDC, etc. However, many reputable sites use this information for their reporting.

This post is not to suggest that the Coronavirus is not a major health threat or shouldn't be taken seriously...but perhaps if folks took a look at the numbers of non-COVID-19 deaths they would stop freaking out and wearing rubber gloves to the goddamn grocery store. I mean, they dont look at the traffic fatalities and line the entire inside of their vehicle with NERF!!


As a healthcare professional I am on the very front lines of this threat. But I am more concerned about the total collapse of our economy than I am about this virus. I'd hate for our country to be so myopic about "flattening the curve" that we finally open our eyes to the 2nd Great Depression.

combat auto 04-03-2020 04:31 AM

It is a terrible thing CV9, but deaths in US likely will not surpass the significant flues of 1957 (75,000 US only), and 1968 (100,000 US Only)....I will not even mention the SHTF flue of 1918 which was in a class of its own (~650,000 US only).

But we didn't have the Death Ticker on CNN 24X7 creating all the unnecessary panic in these prior flues. CNN, MSNBC, and Nancy P. who is starting another Witch Hunt, are trying to leverage this into a Trump defeat in Nov.

That said, although I have been dodging flue since 2007 (been on chemo since then), I do think CV9 is more dangerous than the "average-annual-flue". Perhaps/maybe on par with the 1957 and 1968 flues....

I've been using my N95 masks and gloves to great affect over the last 10 years to avoid flues while food shopping, but for CV9, being over 60 and on chemo, I am making every attempt to stay on my property and avoid even food shopping. Not sure if I can completely avoid it but so far have cut back to like once every 3 week rather than every week. Spend a lot of time foraging for food, water, etc., on the internet (I have all the ammo I could possibly need for now ;-)).

bradsvette 04-03-2020 08:51 AM

CA, you hit the nail perfectly on the head. Is it a dangerous flu? Yes. Are precautions warranted? Yes. Are the freaking TV News Networks creating panic and anxiety to increase their viewing percentages and pad their own pockets? Absolutely!!! The Press is totally responsible for exascerbating this destructive situation. They are greedy, and criminally complicit in exaggerating the danger, creating fear, and doing everything in their power to cause panic, derail the economy, and sink Donald Trump.

HarryO45 04-03-2020 08:58 AM

Numbers don’t lie.

bradsvette 04-03-2020 09:06 AM

Right now, as of 9AM CST, April 3, 2020, the US death rate is 2%. That percentage is based on the number of reported cases. We were told not to even seek testing unless we exhibited severe symptoms. So, of the people tested, the very sick ones already, the death rate is 2%. That's a normal flu-year death rate. If everyone was tested, then the rate would drop like a turd from a tall moose. It's a normal flu. The flu typically takes the very old and the very infirm. It's nature's way and it's been the same since time began. This Covid 19 deal is a construct of the Press. They are criminally complicit in creating a panic.

P.S. I am 65 and a cancer survivor. I had an optical stroke (AION) in 2017 that ended my flying career. So I guess I am in the high-risk group. I am not a callous person and I am not irresponsible, but IMHO this flu panic is BS. The Press have created this situation. They've damaged the economy, frightened most of the world, and are totally responsible for this gross over-reaction. They are evil.

jjfitch 04-03-2020 09:14 AM

Can we get just as excited about the number of deaths due to abortion as we have with Covid-19?

Asking for a friend!

chrysanthemum 04-03-2020 09:15 AM

My concern about these early 2020 statistics is that they include virtually no deaths (comparatively) in the U.S., India, Africa, South America, and Russia... simply because the virus had not yet made notable inroads yet in these countries/continents.

Later, when statistics start coming in, I fear that the 53,245 number will look almost incidental. I'm envisioning an exponentially higher number as coronavirus makes its way through India, Africa, South America, and the U.S.

President Trump:rock: seems to have, pending more information, settled for (as best estimates) best case scenarios of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. alone.

I hope I'm wrong, I might be wrong (excessive pessimism), and I'm well aware that I have no experience in medicine, diseases, etc.

On the other hand, my entire career was in the realm of finance and business (worldwide)....so I'm all too painfully aware of the financial/economic fallout, including the more pessimistic outcomes which I fear are all too possible. Those of you who've cited this concern are absolutely correct IMHO...it is a huge concern, kind of like standing before a charging cape buffalo... which isn't going to stop, at least not of its own accord.

Separately, I couldn't be more unhappy with the Dems and their complicit media pals. Somehow, I suspect that they're industriously working, unawares, towards torpedoing their own ship. Couldn't happen to a more deserving group.

And as mentioned before, I'm very much appreciative of each of your thoughts and especially those of you, certainly Flight Medic, with specific skills/knowledge/experience related to this subject. You've provided far better wisdom and perspective than "the sky is falling" mainstream media. Salute!:rock:

Some of those causes of death numbers provided by FM are jaw-dropping. I wouldn't have guessed such.

USMM guy 04-03-2020 12:50 PM

Certainly some thoughtful posts here.
 
And any number of things to consider.

I do not see this as any kind of normal flu. As near as I can tell the contagion level appears to be very high. At least according to what I can see, backed up by what I hear from my sister in law. A highly respected microbiologist.

And as posted here, even with a mere 2 percent death rate. If let us say half the population gets infected with it. At two percent mortality you still end up with almost two million dead. The figures that we have now are also based on the premise that the medical system in place has largely been able to treat all of the patients that have it. How much longer are we going to be able to do that? And then what kind of mortality rate will you have?

And that is here. When this thing takes off in all of these third world mega cities with marginal at best medical care. What kind of numbers are we going to see then? We are still in the early stages of this thing. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.

Is the bigger threat that the economy just shuts down? With people unable to get food, medicine? Power grids and transportation failing? All in an effort to quell this thing? Probably it is, with widespread civil disorder and an accompanying breakdown of society. Most assuredly this is the bigger threat.

And will the Demos go all out to use this to gain the white house in November? Most assuredly they are, and will going forward. We already know that nothing is beneath them.

bradsvette 04-03-2020 01:19 PM

Come on Skipper, the number is 2% of the ones who've been tested as positive. Not 2% of half of the US population. We were all told that there weren't enough test kits and instructed to not get tested unless demonstrating severe symptoms. You can't extrapolate to half of the US population when the test group was already sick. That's not a valid test group, nor a valid sample. The 2% would really be .000002% if you extrapolate to half of the entire US population.

USMM guy 04-03-2020 01:50 PM

I will reiterate.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bradsvette (Post 13113320)
Come on Skipper, the number is 2% of the ones who've been tested as positive. Not 2% of half of the US population. We were all told that there weren't enough test kits and instructed to not get tested unless demonstrating severe symptoms. You can't extrapolate to half of the US population when the test group was already sick. That's not a valid test group, nor a valid sample. The 2% would really be .000002% if you extrapolate to half of the entire US population.

And as posted here, even with a mere 2 percent death rate. If let us say half the population gets infected with it. At two percent mortality you still end up with almost two million dead. The figures that we have now are also based on the premise that the medical system in place has largely been able to treat all of the patients that have it. How much longer are we going to be able to do that? And then what kind of mortality rate will you have?

Just like if a quarter of the population "tests positve" and you have a 2% mortality rate. That gives you almost a million deaths.

bradsvette 04-03-2020 02:08 PM

But the 2% death rate is based on people who are are already severely sick. What about the vast numbers of people who have it and don't have any symptoms, or had it and didn't know they had it. It's not really a 2% death rate. It's a 2% death rate of people who got sick, had severe symptoms, and were tested. You and I and millions like us are not in the test group. We weren't tested. The 2% is a bogus number.

I give up if you can't figure out the difference.

Striker2237 04-03-2020 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradsvette (Post 13113386)
But the 2% death rate is based on people who are are already severely sick. What about the vast numbers of people who have it and don't have any symptoms, or had it and didn't know they had it. It's not really a 2% death rate. It's a 2% death rate of people who got sick, had severe symptoms, and were tested. You and I and millions like us are not in the test group. We weren't tested. The 2% is a bogus number.

I give up if you can't figure out the difference.

DING DING DING! If we use the same "confirmed only" approach as C19 then the flu is over 5% kill rate

bradsvette 04-03-2020 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Striker2237 (Post 13113406)
DING DING DING! If we use the same "confirmed only" approach as C19 then the flu is over 5% kill rate

Exactly! The normal, seasonal flu has killed several thousands more. Look at Flight Medic's post.

wccountryboy 04-03-2020 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradsvette (Post 13113386)
But the 2% death rate is based on people who are are already severely sick. What about the vast numbers of people who have it and don't have any symptoms, or had it and didn't know they had it. It's not really a 2% death rate. It's a 2% death rate of people who got sick, had severe symptoms, and were tested. You and I and millions like us are not in the test group. We weren't tested. The 2% is a bogus number.

I give up if you can't figure out the difference.

Been saying this for weeks.... but "kitchen table" science is frowned upon around here....

USMM guy 04-03-2020 03:16 PM

I see what you are saying now.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bradsvette (Post 13113386)
But the 2% death rate is based on people who are are already severely sick. What about the vast numbers of people who have it and don't have any symptoms, or had it and didn't know they had it. It's not really a 2% death rate. It's a 2% death rate of people who got sick, had severe symptoms, and were tested. You and I and millions like us are not in the test group. We weren't tested. The 2% is a bogus number.

I give up if you can't figure out the difference.

I thought that the two percent mortality rate was for anyone infected. But if it is two percent of only seriously ill then that is different. But at this stage of the game. That does not really tell you that much. They can not know at this stage how many people will actually even get seriously ill. There have been a number of predictions made, but nobody really knows.

Even Fauchi said himself that the virus will run the timeline on this. We are not in a position to do this.

bradsvette 04-03-2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USMM guy (Post 13113456)
I thought that the two percent mortality rate was for anyone infected. But if it is two percent of only seriously ill then that is different. But at this stage of the game. That does not really tell you that much. They can not know at this stage how many people will actually even get seriously ill. There have been a number of predictions made, but nobody really knows.

Even Fauchi said himself that the virus will run the timeline on this. We are not in a position to do this.

Yeah, no doubt that everyone is concerned. And, the contagion rate may very well be higher with Covid-19. My point is really just that the Media has perpetuated and exaggerated this situation to sell news and press their agenda forward without any regard to the economy, jobs, and people's fear of the unknown. The Covid death ticker on CNN is a perfect example.

USMM guy 04-03-2020 03:53 PM

Now I see what you are saying.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bradsvette (Post 13113472)
Yeah, no doubt that everyone is concerned. And, the contagion rate may very well be higher with Covid-19. My point is really just that the Media has perpetuated and exaggerated this situation to sell news and press their agenda forward without any regard to the economy, jobs, and people's fear of the unknown. The Covid death ticker on CNN is a perfect example.

And I concur. But I still think that this thing could end up being pretty bad.

bradsvette 04-03-2020 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USMM guy (Post 13113496)
And I concur. But I still think that this thing could end up being pretty bad.

Me too.

wccountryboy 04-03-2020 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USMM guy (Post 13113456)
I thought that the two percent mortality rate was for anyone infected. But if it is two percent of only seriously ill then that is different. But at this stage of the game. That does not really tell you that much. They can not know at this stage how many people will actually even get seriously ill. There have been a number of predictions made, but nobody really knows.

Even Fauchi said himself that the virus will run the timeline on this. We are not in a position to do this.

The 2% mortality is based on confirmed cases, those that both show severe enough symptoms to seek medical case, AND are testing, and come up positive.
This goes back to what I was saying a week or so back- fatalities/ "confirmed" cases is bad, grammer school math, and bad science.... its more complex than that.

Grandpas50AE 04-03-2020 06:20 PM

I watched to the local FOX news a few minutes ago, and the numbers were that 55k tests have been done state-wide (Texas). Of those, 5,400 have been confirmed positive. Of that 5,400 confirmed cases, 91 have died. So, the numbers are: 10% of tested individuals are "positive", and 1.5% have died (mortality rate). Of the number of tested, that becomes 0.15% - that's only the number tested. As more tests are administered, who knows how those numbers change, but out of a general population of 28 million, that's a rate of 0.00032% rate. Depends on how one wants to structure the numbers on spreading fear. Do I think it's a nasty bug? I do indeed - especially in dense population areas where those percentages would be higher than the overall average. Even at a week away from turning 69 years old, I fear the destruction to the economy and delivery infrastructure more than the "bug" itself. JMHO.

Timbo3 04-03-2020 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjfitch (Post 13113054)
Can we get just as excited about the number of deaths due to abortion as we have with Covid-19?

Asking for a friend!

The ignored leading cause of death in America.

James3612 04-03-2020 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grandpas50AE (Post 13113682)
I watched to the local FOX news a few minutes ago, and the numbers were that 55k tests have been done state-wide (Texas). Of those, 5,400 have been confirmed positive. Of that 5,400 confirmed cases, 91 have died. So, the numbers are: 10% of tested individuals are "positive", and 1.5% have died (mortality rate). Of the number of tested, that becomes 0.15% - that's only the number tested. As more tests are administered, who knows how those numbers change, but out of a general population of 28 million, that's a rate of 0.00032% rate. Depends on how one wants to structure the numbers on spreading fear. Do I think it's a nasty bug? I do indeed - especially in dense population areas where those percentages would be higher than the overall average. Even at a week away from turning 69 years old, I fear the destruction to the economy and delivery infrastructure more than the "bug" itself. JMHO.

Thinking about my child bride, my daughter, and my 2 grandsons:

Exactamundo, Roger!

mdellis49 04-03-2020 08:06 PM

As previously stated test are only conducted on individuals who demonstrate major symptoms. The biggest is a temp over 102. So here we have a county in California where 54 people have been tested 46 negative 8 still pending Zero confirmed cases.
https://www.mariposacounty.org/1592/...19-Information

Grandpas50AE 04-03-2020 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdellis49 (Post 13113796)
As previously stated test are only conducted on individuals who demonstrate major symptoms. The biggest is a temp over 102. So here we have a county in California where 54 people have been tested 46 negative 8 still pending Zero confirmed cases.
https://www.mariposacounty.org/1592/...19-Information

I think it varies by state as to who "qualifies" for testing - her in the Dallas area it been a fever of 99.6, but that is being waived if you are in one of the other "risk" categories. So, a wider range of people being allowed to get the testing here. Since the general testing sites here have been medical tents set up by the Texas NG, and today was very windy, the sites were closed most of today in Dallas proper, I don't know about surrounding areas.

chrysanthemum 04-03-2020 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grandpas50AE (Post 13113818)
I think it varies by state as to who "qualifies" for testing - her in the Dallas area it been a fever of 99.6, but that is being waived if you are in one of the other "risk" categories. So, a wider range of people being allowed to get the testing here. Since the general testing sites here have been medical tents set up by the Texas NG, and today was very windy, the sites were closed most of today in Dallas proper, I don't know about surrounding areas.

Since I've chosen to "hole-up" in a second home (central TX), I'm a bit removed from knowing what's going on in my primary N.Texas home area. Of concern, Dallas is being referenced with increasing frequency by mainstream media...but without any distinction between north and south of the Trinity river. I'll guess that south Dallas will be hit harder (that's usually the way bad things go), and also suffer from fewer top tier medical facilities.

You're probably and hopefully a safe enough distance from whatever happens in Dallas, whether north, south, or the entire city. The friends I have in Dallas itself are being very, very careful. So are those in my central TX area, where one of the worries was the foolhardy conduct of many college kids....most of those kids have now dispersed state-wide to their original homes, which, in one sense, might be spreading the risks.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:45 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright 2015 1911Forum.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved