Ammo Shortage, Increased cost posts go here

[guy sajer]

Seems to be working for me . I get 20 pages at a time . Just tried 45,46,47,48

[joedel]

Try going the user control panel for your account and click edit options and change the number of posts per page to 40 (which is the maximum).

With those settings the last page of this thread is 29.

[TEA]

Originally Posted by bowserb

Yep. It started long before the first Obama panic, and now it's anticipating the next one.

There is supposed to have been a notice on the Brownell's website about an ammo shortage. Some people say it's bogus. Could be, but three Walmarts where I buy ammo are now always out of 5.56 and .45--at least in the value packages. I now stop whenever I pass a different Walmart and check the ammo. Hit one a few days ago that still had the 31.97 label on their WWB .45 Value Pack, and they had three boxes. I took all three. They came up on the computer as $36.97 but Walmart policy says if the shelf label has a lower price, that's what you pay. That Walmart had -0- 5.56mm ammo, except for some 1.50 per round hollowpoints.

As the election gets closer, this is only going to get worse, and if our worst nightmare comes true in November, there will be panic at the gun shops. I'm not waiting--I've decided to panic early and avoid the crowds!

As you noted, the shortage and price increase started before Obama. Of course, the panic buying in '08 and '09 didnt' help, but the underlying causes are not political. I used to work as the vendor performance coordinator for the State of Texas back when all of this started.

We first started seeing problems with our ammo vendors in 2005 and even had one default on his contract because of the shortage and price increases. It actually turned into quite a problem for us and we almost debarred the vendor. Our contracts supplied not only DPS, but also Texas Parks and Wildlife, the LEO branches of the AG's and Comptroller's offices, as well as most of the local law enforcement agencies throughout the state. That is a lot of ammo.

However, after contacting all of the ammunition manufacturers we determined that market circumstances beyond the vendor's control were causing the shortage. The two biggest drivers for the price increases and the shortage of ammo were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the global shortage of metal, particularly copper, caused in large part by the building booms in China and the Gulf states.

With regards to the first driver, all US manufacturers quite rightly put the US military's demands before any domestic orders. Then state agencies get their orders filled, then the civilian commercial market. US manufacturers were having such a hard time meeting US military demand in 2005 that the DOD started buying from foreign suppliers to keep pace with demand. US manufacturers, in order to meet US military demand, geared almost all of their production to manufacturing only NATO spec ammo components, so non-NATO spec ammo (e.g. 380 ACP, which the above mentioned vendor had on contract for the State of Texas) was only produced after military contract demands were met. AFAIK (I wasn't with the state anymore but I asked my friend who oversees this contract), this supply shortage peaked in 2008 with the Surge in Iraq.

Of course, that was also the year Obama was elected. I think consumers initially miss-perceived the shortage on the civilian commercial market through their political lenses and started panic buying in '08 and '09. This then had the exact result of what consumers feared - an ammo shortage driven by panic buying motivated by political fears.

With regards to the second driver, all of the manufacturers I spoke with or corresponded with as part of my investigation claimed that raw materials, particularly metals made with copper (e.g. brass and guiding metals for bullet jackets) had gone up dramatically in cost starting in the late '90s as a result of increasing demand for those metals in construction - particularly in China and the Gulf states. Interestingly, other raw materials, such as cement, had also gone up at a similar rate (confirmed by cross referencing data compiled by the Dept of Commerce). Bottom line, all of the manufacturers claimed that their production costs had dramatically increased and that was why ammo prices were going up so dramatically. In fact, the manufacturers claimed that these market forces were driving up costs even more than the war.

None of these market forces have changed much since 2005. Military demand may be down some, but it is probably still much higher than it was before 2001. The building boom in China and the Gulf states has slowed a little bit because of the global recession, but not a whole heck of a lot. With the upcoming election, once again, consumers' fears are compounding the problem.

[joedel]

Originally Posted by TEA

As you noted, the shortage and price increase started before Obama. Of course, the panic buying in '08 and '09 didnt' help, but the underlying causes are not political. I used to work as the vendor performance coordinator for the State of Texas back when all of this started.

We first started seeing problems with our ammo vendors in 2005 and even had one default on his contract because of the shortage and price increases. It actually turned into quite a problem for us and we almost debarred the vendor. Our contracts supplied not only DPS, but also Texas Parks and Wildlife, the LEO branches of the AG's and Comptroller's offices, as well as most of the local law enforcement agencies throughout the state. That is a lot of ammo.

However, after contacting all of the ammunition manufacturers we determined that market circumstances beyond the vendor's control were causing the shortage. The two biggest drivers for the price increases and the shortage of ammo were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the global shortage of metal, particularly copper, caused in large part by the building booms in China and the Gulf states.

With regards to the first driver, all US manufacturers quite rightly put the US military's demands before any domestic orders. Then state agencies get their orders filled, then the civilian commercial market. US manufacturers were having such a hard time meeting US military demand in 2005 that the DOD started buying from foreign suppliers to keep pace with demand. US manufacturers, in order to meet US military demand, geared almost all of their production to manufacturing only NATO spec ammo components, so non-NATO spec ammo (e.g. 380 ACP, which the above mentioned vendor had on contract for the State of Texas) was only produced after military contract demands were met. AFAIK (I wasn't with the state anymore but I asked my friend who oversees this contract), this supply shortage peaked in 2008 with the Surge in Iraq.

Of course, that was also the year Obama was elected. I think consumers initially miss-perceived the shortage on the civilian commercial market through their political lenses and started panic buying in '08 and '09. This then had the exact result of what consumers feared - an ammo shortage driven by panic buying motivated by political fears.

With regards to the second driver, all of the manufacturers I spoke with or corresponded with as part of my investigation claimed that raw materials, particularly metals made with copper (e.g. brass and guiding metals for bullet jackets) had gone up dramatically in cost starting in the late '90s as a result of increasing demand for those metals in construction - particularly in China and the Gulf states. Interestingly, other raw materials, such as cement, had also gone up at a similar rate (confirmed by cross referencing data compiled by the Dept of Commerce). Bottom line, all of the manufacturers claimed that their production costs had dramatically increased and that was why ammo prices were going up so dramatically. In fact, the manufacturers claimed that these market forces were driving up costs even more than the war.

None of these market forces have changed much since 2005. Military demand may be down some, but it is probably still much higher than it was before 2001. The building boom in China and the Gulf states has slowed a little bit because of the global recession, but not a whole heck of a lot. With the upcoming election, once again, consumers' fears are compounding the problem.

The Copper price had held steady between $0.50 and $1.50 a pound for years and years but around 2006 it spiked WAY up $4.00 a pound and after cratering briefly during height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis it spiked even higher up to $4.50 a pound in mid 2010. It has stabilized now at about $3.75 but I don't see us going back to the days of $1.00 a pound (the price in 2004) any time soon. In many ways it has mirrored the price of oil.

So even without the panic buying (assuming that eases eventually), ammo prices will remain at double or more than what they were in 2005 simply due to the raw material cost. And the larger the caliber (meaning more copper used), the worse the increase will be.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...es/copper/all/

[TEA]

Originally Posted by joedel

The Copper price had held steady between $0.50 and $1.50 a pound for years and years but around 2006 it spiked WAY up $4.00 a pound and after cratering briefly during height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis it spiked even higher up to $4.50 a pound in mid 2010. It has stabilized now at about $3.75 but I don't see us going back to the days of $1.00 a pound (the price in 2004) any time soon. In many ways it has mirrored the price of oil.

So even without the panic buying (assuming that eases eventually), ammo prices will remain at double or more than what they were in 2005 simply due to the raw material cost. And the larger the caliber (meaning more copper used), the worse the increase will be.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...es/copper/all/

Thanks for the link. The ammo manufacturers had told me that the price of metals had been going up fairly steadily from the late '90s but had recently jumped through the roof. From the data in your link, it looks like it had remained fairly steady until 2004.

What, if any, market impact do y'all think the recent end of the world fears are having? I seem to recall a bit of an increase in ammo costs with the Y2K scare, but nothing huge. Anyone else recall that?

[riskinstrument]

Two weeks ago at lgs, wwb 50round .45 was $27.00. Today, $40.00. Shopowner says suppliers talking another increase in next month.

[joedel]

Originally Posted by TEA

Thanks for the link. The ammo manufacturers had told me that the price of metals had been going up fairly steadily from the late '90s but had recently jumped through the roof. From the data in your link, it looks like it had remained fairly steady until 2004.

What, if any, market impact do y'all think the recent end of the world fears are having? I seem to recall a bit of an increase in ammo costs with the Y2K scare, but nothing huge. Anyone else recall that?

I think the rapid industrialization of China and to a lesser extent India is what really caused the copper increase. Steady demand from the wars probably had an effect as well. Think about the amount of copper in one crate of .50 BMG rounds.

China's growth has already begun to tail off so hopefully their copper use will as well.

Don't recall any increase around the Y2K hysteria, though I was overseas most of that time. I do remember a big shortage in pistol primers at some point. But that was earlier in the 90's if I recall. Something about a huge tax being proposed in congress on ammo and components?

[joedel]

One thing is for sure, even if you don't reload, collect your brass at the range and sell it to someone who does. That could offset your ammo costs by 15% or so.

[hotpig]

Originally Posted by hotpig

That sux for dealers.

Current wholesale price(what your local gun shop pays).

Vendor Name: Q4170 WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
Description: WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
$18.70

100 round value pack

Vendor Name: USA45AVP WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
Description: WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
$35.75

Prices back at the end of January posted above.Todays price below.

Vendor Name: Q4170 WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
Description: WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
$19.50

100 round value pack

Vendor Name: USA45AVP WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
Description: WINCHESTER DIV., OLIN CORP.
$37.20

[VietVet USMC 1968]

Originally Posted by joedel

The Copper price had held steady between $0.50 and $1.50 a pound for years and years but around 2006 it spiked WAY up $4.00 a pound and after cratering briefly during height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis it spiked even higher up to $4.50 a pound in mid 2010. It has stabilized now at about $3.75 but I don't see us going back to the days of $1.00 a pound (the price in 2004) any time soon. In many ways it has mirrored the price of oil.

So even without the panic buying (assuming that eases eventually), ammo prices will remain at double or more than what they were in 2005 simply due to the raw material cost. And the larger the caliber (meaning more copper used), the worse the increase will be.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...es/copper/all/

Also, it helps explain why all the abandoned & sometimes not abandoned, commercial & residential buildings are victims of copper theft. A/C units are picking themselves up and going to the scrap metal collectors.

[joedel]

Originally Posted by VietVet USMC 1968

Also, it helps explain why all the abandoned & sometimes not abandoned, commercial & residential buildings are victims of copper theft. A/C units are picking themselves up and going to the scrap metal collectors.

No doubt. It's so bad that I read an article about some sick bastards stealing copper from tombs and crypts at a cemetery.

[Busa Dave]

Well I guess that my 20mm can dead level full of OF 45acp with the same WCC headstamp may become more valuable. Still have about (may have to shoot them again) 4 or 5k of the Winchester 185 swc match.

Kind of doubt it because I have everything set up for 230 on all of my 45's. Who knows may have to go back to 185's but I doubt it. The caliber that I shoot the most is 10mm and those are easy to get now.

[bowserb]

Originally Posted by joedel

One thing is for sure, even if you don't reload, collect your brass at the range and sell it to someone who does. That could offset your ammo costs by 15% or so.

That makes sense. I guess it's why the three ranges closest to me--one outdoor, two indoor--do not allow picking up brass, not even your own. The two indoor ranges also do not allow steel cased ammo.

[majortoo]

They are even stealing copper downspouts from churches. It is called survival economics.

[joedel]

Bad news. Copper is on the move upward again, price closed at $3.85 per pound today. That's $0.25 higher than just a few weeks ago.

[1911_Kid]

Originally Posted by joedel

Bad news. Copper is on the move upward again, price closed at $3.85 per pound today. That's $0.25 higher than just a few weeks ago.

time for some non-JP's and more cleaning. cant the bullet folks use some other metal that has copper-like properties?

but, i bet ya lead will go up......

i guess i have to ask, why is copper on such a fast rate up?

[joedel]

Originally Posted by 1911_Kid

time for some non-JP's and more cleaning. cant the bullet folks use some other metal that has copper-like properties?

but, i bet ya lead will go up......

i guess i have to ask, why is copper on such a fast rate up?

Problem is, brass casings used in ammunition is made from about 70% copper (the other 30% is Zinc) so it's not just the bullet jackets that use copper. That's a big reason why the steel-cased ammo from Russia (Tula etc.) is cheaper than cartridges using brass.

As for lead, the price of all metals has increased significantly in past decade.

And China is mainly to blame for the increase in price. Copper is used extensively in manufacturing and construction and in the recent past the amount of manufacturing and construction done in China has obviously skyrocketed.

[DW1911]

i must say, this time around, the ammo crisis is not as bad as 07-08 as far as walmart and most big name online retailers are concerned. Seem like there are still some great deals out there if you look closer. Things might change very quickly this summer, however.

[bowserb]

Originally Posted by DW1911

i must say, this time around, the ammo crisis is not as bad as 07-08 as far as walmart and most big name online retailers are concerned. Seem like there are still some great deals out there if you look closer. Things might change very quickly this summer, however.

5.56mm ammo is still high and rising. You have to buy a case of 1,000 bulk ammo to get a unit price comparable to just a couple months ago in a box of 50. 45, yes you can catch a deal when Wallyworld happens to have it in stock. WWB 100-rd Value Pack a few months ago was $32 in Houston (3 WM stores I check). Now it's $37 and usually out of stock.

Want to see price increases? Watch on November 7, if Obama wins, or even before that, if it looks like he might win!

[tracyballard]

the only problem now is inflation, supply is fine.

[joedel]

Originally Posted by tracyballard

the only problem now is inflation, supply is fine.

+1

Right now if I really shop around online I can find 500 rds of 45 ACP for about $150. In 2005-06 I could run down to the local Wal-Mart and get 500 rds for about $99.

[bowserb]

Originally Posted by joedel

+1
Right now if I really shop around online I can find 500 rds of 45 ACP for about $150. In 2005-06 I could run down to the local Wal-Mart and get 500 rds for about $99.

What kind of ammo is that? I can't find anything close other than Tula, and I prefer to not use steel cases in my Colt.

[joedel]

If you shop around online and wait for specials and sales you can probably find 50 rds of 45 ACP for $15 or so and then buy ten boxes. I never buy Tula or steel-cased ammo but I will buy CCI Blazers.

I use AmmoSeek.com to look for sales.

A good sale I see there now is $15.99 for a box of Sellier & Bellot brass-cased 45 ACP. So $160 for 500 rds is pretty good. I've shot that in the past and it's very good ammo:

http://www.natchezss.com/Ammo.cfm?co...dID=ZYV311252A

Freedom Munitions looks like they have 500 rds of new 45 ACP for $155 (reloads are $145). Haven't tried their ammo but I've read good reviews of it.

Shipping obviously bumps the price up but there is usually no sales tax (which you would pay if you bought locally).

Sales are out there if you look around.

[austin870]

You people have to remember ALL the metals markets are being manipulated by the largest global investors and not metal "consumers". What drives all the metal markets right now are the banking and investment houses using Federal Reserve printed money borrowed at 0% interest to invest in anything they please. These investors are manipulating the market by selling "paper metals" on the stockmarket etc and buying up "physical metals" for themselves. This endless influx of counterfeited currency into the system is causing most of this.

The "paper metals" market of investments is what is driving the metal markets crazy. They are "suppressing" some metal markets while inflating others. To cut the amount of ammo civilians are buying they simply inflate the copper, brass etc markets with fiat money driving the prices up. They are just playing with us at this point. They can kick this scam into high gear anytime they please. This way there is no "shortage" of ammo or violations of the 2nd amendment. Ammo simply becomes unaffordable and the investors make a fortune.

For the most part real supply and demand are a diminishing factor in precious metals. Keep posting the good sales guys.

[sousana]

Buds the other month had a clearance on CCI Blazer aluminum cased ball ammo in 9mm and 45acp, $8.99 per box either one. I ended up getting 7k rounds in each and kicking myself for not ordering more. Don't know if it was a clearance or special sale or what, but they've currently got the 9mm at 9.99 a box, which is comparable to 9mm Federal at my local wallies for 10.99 a box plus tax.